Do you think Ukraine will win this war?

[ColinC]

46 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Unlimited
	Yes. Russia will take all major cities, but a prolonged insurgency will eventually force Russia out within years.
	20 (43%)
	Yes. Russia will be forced out by Ukraine's military within the next couple weeks.
	7 (15%)
	No.
	8 (17%)
	Something else.
	11 (24%)
	1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[artemisia1]

1. kick /nt

[multigraincracker]

2. I predict a

big surprise....wait for it.

[Starfury]

3. No one's going to "win" this war. It's all bad and only going to get worse... nt

[eShirl]

4. all I know is, Russia will lose

[FarPoint]

5. The Russian people will end Putin's reign....

The sanctions will increase to devastate the population...Food shortages with starvation, no work/monies...I sense there has always been an insurgency group within the population of Russia ready for the right opportunity... The Military will lay down their arms, no food, pay...it is known that your Army needs to be satisfied....They will be very disgruntled.

[JT45242]

6. No one wins a war...

Will they outlast Russia in the long run. Yes.

But thousands will be dead on both sides. Everyone loses in a war.

Especially the children who lose their parents.

[ColinC]

7. Far too true

[Sherman A1]

8. Define Winning?

It is not an easy question to answer without the definition you deem to be a victory.

[jimmy the one]

9. A stalemate is a win for the Ukraine - half a loaf

Last edited Mon Mar 7, 2022, 08:05 AM - Edit history (1)

I voted for 'something else' in your poll, Colin. The top two choices I feel are not possible, while a 'no' needs be caveated, as below.
I hope the Ukraine can force a stalemate within a few months, where russia will somehow bow out with several southern & eastern cities in its craw, a bit of egg on its face, and a clever concoction making it seem they are doves with olive branches. A stalemate would likely be a WIN for the Ukraine.

A stalemate is a result where neither side can make any further meaningful progress in the war (on edit: without suffering inordinately high losses for any subsequent gain). The Ukraine cannot force russia back out of russian occupied territory, except on a temporary hit or miss scale. Russia will eventually lay full siege to Kiev, and 'hopefully' other major cities which are not overrun in short order, and that might be that, the Ukraine sues for peace. Depends on how long the sieges last, and how much damage Ukrainian counterattacks do to the invaders.
If Putin deems the siege too long and costly (ha) he might do as I said above, and see that with solid world wide support going against him, a crumbling economy, larger than expected military losses, that the war is stalemated, and an expedited exit based on some specious pretext might return to russia some of the status quo ante bellum (condition prior to war).

A stalemate would be a WIN for the Ukraine. I think it is the best they can hope for against overwhelming russian strength. Ukrainian resistance will likely wane over time.
A stalemate could be twisted into a win for putin by sophistry, in that he might accomplish 90% of his goals and be satisfied with half a loaf. World opinion would still be against the invasion and subjugation of the half loaf, but that too, sadly to say, would wane.

The first gulf war was a stalemate as well as a decisive win for the United States. Kuwait was restored, but to capture saddam was deemed by HWBush as too costly to continue, thus a flimsy stalemate. Often wars end this way.
Bellum da svedanya.

[Wounded Bear]

25. Ukraine...not "the" Ukraine...nt

[jimmy the one]

26. a rose is a rose

the borderlands; officially now just Ukraine, but my main argument above remains, as a rose is a rose...
No offense taken.

[JustAnotherGen]

10. It is an invasion

And Ukraine is defending their land.

I don't know.

[artemisia1]

11. kick /nt

[roamer65]

12. I think it's going to stabilize out to a free and independent northwestern Ukraine...

And an eastern and southern Russian-occupied Ukraine, probably including Transnistria.

Notice that Putler for the most part is leaving NW Ukraine alone. It’s overwhelmingly Ukrainian and too near NATO borders.

It won’t be borders. It will be lines of control, much like what it was in the Donbas.

Sad all the way around for the Ukrainian people.

😢

[mvd]

13. I can see that

There may be compromises, though I obviously hope Russia loses completely.

I also like using the name Putler. Sounds appropriate to me.

[roamer65]

14. I don't like it, but just my gut tells me it's gonna "rhyme" with the 1939 partition of Poland.

[mvd]

15. Yep I'm still worried how far Putler takes things

We’d have to respond if he gets crazy enough.

[roamer65]

16. Eventually this is heading to WW3.

If we aren’t already in it.

[orleans]

17. something else: i don't know n/t

[roamer65]

18. The ethnic make up of Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/02/world/ukraine-divided/

[ForgedCrank]

19. I don't think the answer options

match the question, it assumes several outcomes.
Russia will win this war if it continues. I commend the resistance, but the Ukrainians are simply outnumbered and out-gunned in the end. Unless some sort of deal can be made, the outcome here is all but decided just by the numbers.
Russia has already lost the propaganda war though. That will come with long lasting ramifications for current Russian leadership.
This conflict has shown the world that the mighty Russians had to struggle with a poorly armed satellite country with very limited resources. And I also think that globally, we may see some economic restructuring in the coming years that involves cutting Russia out for sourcing as much as possible. Putin will pay for this one dearly.

And don't underestimate the Russians regarding population control. They've done it before, and they will do it again. They will line people up and execute them by the thousands in order to maintain control, and they won't think twice about it. These are not good people, and they consider the citizens an expendable commodity.

[Wingus Dingus]

20. I think there will be an independent Ukraine, but it may not

have the same borders it does now.

[anamnua]

21. If the Ukrainians refuse to stop fighting,

which they will, they will win.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

22. I keep looking back at Afghanistan......

and asking "why, Russia, why?"

Humanity never ceases to amaze as to just how cruel and selfish we can be, then turn right around and be loving, caring, sharing and compassionate.

KY.......

[artemisia1]

23. kick

[MineralMan]

24. No, but the Russians will end up withdrawing.

There will be no winner.