I wonder if Rasputitsa will have the same effects as other invasions suffered?

[captain queeg]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa

The muddy season in the spring and fall brought military operations to a halt. Certainly stalled the Nazi drive. I think it applies to Ukraine as well as Russia. The long stalled convoy is supposedly along the one road that is available for that route. It sounds like they have been sticking to it already. Maybe they have found some alternate routes as well, but any dirt roads they might be using won’t work when the spring thaw arrives. If the Russians get bogged down in the mud it might well end the campaign.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Putin's blitzkrieg plan was to be in before Rasputitsa & puppet installed in a few days

If they are serious about encircling Kyiv and trying to besiege it, there may be further delays due to Rasputitsa if they try to bring equipment overland from the south and east.

Thanks for the Wikipedia link. I had seen the term yesterday and understood it at that point, but the refresher was needed today!

[eShirl]

5. I bet he's sorry now he delayed until the Winter Olympics was over.

Hope he's kicking himself.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. I hope he kicks himself all the way into retirement in his $1 billion palace he's mostly built. nt

[Emrys]

2. Yes, it's been quite widely discussed.

For instance in these two threads:

How poor maintenance may be crippling Russian Army convoy advances in Ukraine
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216431458

Trent Telenko on that stalled Russian convoy's many problems again
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216443470

It's also a consideration in this mammoth round-up of Russia's logistical problems:

Professor of Strategic Studies sums up how screwed Russia's assault seems to be
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216446784

[Desert_Leslie]

4. So So Informative

I've read these threads -- so extremely informative.

Mud season + abysmal truck tire maintenance = truck tires that shred to pieces

[oldsoftie]

3. Starting soon, temps will stay above freezing. Ground thaw accelerates.

And much easier on the civilians trying to live without power

[Emrys]

6. There was an abnormally early thaw in the north of Ukraine.

Reputedly, Putin delayed the invasion until after the Olympics, at the request of Xi Jinping. Had he gone earlier, there would have been fewer problems.

I believe there's a turn to colder weather at the moment, but too late be much help to the remnants of the stranded convoy. The pinch points at either end will take some time to clear, even if Russia has the luxury of time to do so unharried. Clearing the front first would mean a stuttered advance even if they manage to refuel vehicles that are still moveable under their own steam, so they'll be vulnerable to attack. Clearing the back first would effectively be a retreat with no clear aim or destination. Given the pounding roads have taken from heavy vehicles and tank traffic, not to mention fires when fuel tanks have been bombed, further freeze-thaw cycles will just make things worse.

The south of Ukraine is more arid (effectively a desert in places), so the seasonal thaw isn't as much of a factor, which may be one reason why the Russians have had a bit more success there. But their other logistical problems remain.

[oldsoftie]

9. I checked the weather & looks like next week on, it stays well above freezing.

And even right now its not far below it.

Your points about resupplying & fuel are going to show themselves soon! And resupply missions make good targets too.
I just hope the Ukrainians can continue to hold on

[uponit7771]

8. Yep, stuck and out of fuel