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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsUkrainian forces have retaken Mykolaiv airport
Lie most of the world, I have been shocked at how poorly the Russians are doing, if they've now lost another airport this could means Ukriane is going to win. Russian troops appear to be making little progress, all Russia is doing is shelling civilian areas. Until this weekend I thought it was just a matter of time, now I'm not so sure, Ukraine might just be winning this.
Link to tweet
?s=20&t=_Af3dRAwkQOh5VzLjoytDg
Walleye
(31,017 posts)Russians know theyre fighting for a lost cause to restore the past, which can never be done
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)Death to democracy.
China and Russia together both believe they can do this and emerge as the 21st century superpowers.
So there is a lot at stake on both sides.
Walleye
(31,017 posts)As we have seen in this country, that is the formula for failure
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)I am not sure about China wanting to restore old China. They have a 3,500 year written history. They have never been invaded with another culture replacing them.
They are an ancient civilization, with many contributions to the world. They know all of this and are very proud.
But I don't see them wanting to go backwards, they want to go forward.
The Chinese are not as sentimental or emotional as Putin is being.
They are much more pragmatic. I think the world response to Putin is giving them great pause and they are re-thinking their strategy. They probably realize Taiwan is off the table for the time being. Destroying the world's democracies may not be as easy as they hoped.
Walleye
(31,017 posts)I really dont think they want to destroy their magnificent legacy by being another Putin puppet. Of course what they are going to do is a mystery. But I do believe they want economic power. Putin just wants to kill.
gab13by13
(21,333 posts)Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)The rise of authoritarian governments and decline of democracy.
justhanginon
(3,290 posts)Whether you are replacing a kitchen faucet or going for world domination, "nothing is ever as easy as it appears on the surface".
I can vouch for the first but haven't tried the world domination thing.
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)"Hey Dude, putting in a new kitchen faucet or world domination, something always goes wrong."
Xi is a meticulous planner and strategic thinker. He is brilliant but I assume he did not foresee the reaction to Putin. He knew Putin was going to invade Ukraine and even asked him to wait until after the Olympics. Xi likes every thing perfectly planned.
I am sure the Taiwan invasion was next up.
The world reaction must have blown Xi's mind, and in fact he started scrambling to look at his possible liability in joint ventures with Russia.
Putin is acting too emotional right now, I don't know if can adapt and change course. But Xi mostly can.
I think the kitchen faucet rule of world domination is now etched in his brain.
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)Putin is only working on the long term plan they have for world dominance. They both believe they have a right to protect their borders, and get back land they feel was "taken" from them. China has been planning the same kind of invasion of Taiwan. And they want to intimidate the world and show off their power.
Xi and Putin share the exact same goal. Autocratic world world order and destruction of world democracies. So it makes sense they aligned.
Together they feel invincible. They have already greatly weakened western democracies. China has done a soft colonization of African and Latin America. Putin owns half the US congress and media.
Right now China probably sees Putin as creating a major PR problem for their plans. China likes making money and wants the world to buy what they sell. So the severe sanctions must be quite sobering to them.
It is safe to assume that this will not cause China to drop their long term goal of world dominance at all. But they will have to rethink their strategy in light of the world's reaction to Putin. They will adapt and move forward with their plans.
Walleye
(31,017 posts)Maybe because they have such an ancient civilization. 50 years isnt such a long time to them
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)Xi plans far into the future. But he is good at fast tracking things.
He took his country in two decades from abject poverty to a well nourished and cared for people. (They still live under ruthless authoritarian rule, but China has backed off the people to a large extent.)
So I think he will be able to adapt quickly to the Putin PR disaster and protect China from future sanctions. They may have to intertwine themselves more with the world's finances to the point sanctions would hurt everyone too much to use against China. You can almost see Xi's wheels turning on this one.
I also think they may distance themselves from Putin a bit in public. They are also worried about any financial loss due to Russian sanctions as they have business deals with Putin.
China's ancient history can manifest in comical ways. A Chinese immigrant neighbor here in the US had a nice looking pot she used as a nice planter for live plants.
I asked about it and she said it was a pot she had bought on her last trip to China. She said it was "only" about 200 years old. It is not uncommon to see what they consider to be relatively new pottery all over in shops which we would consider antiques.
She and her husband came to the US and got PhDs in American History from the University of Virginia. She said their major was a no-brainer because the US only has 200 years of history which they could learn easily.
Walleye
(31,017 posts)Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)It's way toooooo much!
whathehell
(29,067 posts)else I know.
I think what "we" need to do is to stop defining ourselves
by the worst of us..
PaulnFortWorth
(59 posts)to see how the world reacts. China wants to take Taiwan and will formulate a military campaign based on the outcome of Putin's invasion. When Russia collapses, Taiwan will remain free and independent, N. Korea will lose a major financial supporter and Iran will rethink their future where oil isn't the money maker it used to be.
The people of Belarus and Georgia are also watching. When Russia collapses the autocrat of Belarus will flee to Russia or be killed.
What other areas of Russia want to be free from Russia? It will soon be the time to rise up against Russian oppression.
The world will change drastically in the next two years.
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)Xi for sure will adapt and make some mid course corrections.
Xi will now have to re-configure his battle strategy for Taiwan. But how can Xi go about a military campaign that will dodge sanctions?
Maybe he has a protective financial bubble around him? So much world commerce is tied up with China, sanctions on China may hurt other countries. Also the US has a great deal of debt with China, about $30 trillion I think. Maybe Xi thinks if we put sanctions on him, he can call in the note? I don't know.
I am not sure if North Korea is connected to reality. But the reality of less money is a certain now. So yes NK will be hurt.
Yes I had not thought about Iran also doing some soul searching.
Xi and Putin hoped to shift world power in their favor, but they may have shifted a few things they didn't think about. They must have felt they weakened the western democracies so severely that there would not be a world outcry over Ukraine.
I am not sure how all of this impact the US. Putin, China and the GOP are aligned in wanting world autocratic dominance. The GOP is working to destroy voting rights and getting control of the voting system. Their goal is permanent power and control and access to US financial assets. They will give their base minority white christian minority rule.
Thanks for your comments.
And Welcome to DU!
anamnua
(1,111 posts)including China, to be incinerated as a result of Putins madness.
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)China is pragmatic. It is expensive to blow up the world and then to rebuild it. A marked decrease in the world's population does not help their bottom line.
China seduces countries with money and assistance, not by destroying them. They have been in Latin America and Africa for decades now, spending huge amounts of money on infrastructure while sucking out the natural resources. They have soldiers stationed in these countries, but there have been no reports of violence.
If you saw the Chinese Olympic opening and closing ceremonies you can see how much they want to present a soft glowing picture of China. Everything was focused on beautiful children and toddlers, healthy and very happy looking. Nothing that would alarm the world. It is their PR team at work.
They probably thought Putin was competent, could take the Ukraine in 3-7 days, and Zelensky would surrender quickly.
PortTack
(32,762 posts)Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)The world is too afraid of him to help Ukraine directly. The sanctions may provide help but not in enough time to save them.
PortTack
(32,762 posts)As far as Putin and his threats, I dont think thats what stops us. We have to act in unison with NATO not alone.
For those suggesting we create a no fly zone...please
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)Because we are fine with fighting Putin for a NATO country when the nuclear risk is the same as with Ukraine.
gab13by13
(21,333 posts)The #1 deterrent, before Trump, was the United States and NATO. Trump would have crippled NATO in his 2nd term.
For Putin to get his new world order he needed to destroy NATO but he also needed an ally in the United States, not an enemy. This is why Putin worked so hard to install his puppet in 2016. This is why Putin is funneling dark money to the GQP, the Putin party.
With or without Trump in 2024, Putin wants a Trump clone elected and wants a majority in the Putin Party elected.
The former Republican party, now the Putin Party is just fine with turning the United States into an autocracy so that it can maintain minority rule forever.
This war in Ukraine has a goal of weakening president Biden, this was a big goal a big reason for Putin invading Ukraine.
Soon members of the Putin Party will begin the narrative that president Biden should have done more, that Donald Trump would have stopped Putin, or some other nonsense that our corrupt MSM will back.
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)And they must weaken Biden, while they are getting control of the voting apparatus.
The GOP and Putin are on the same side. Against democracy at all costs.
tblue37
(65,340 posts)uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... how much of a naked punk move for Putrids forces to start shelling civilians.
UKR forces mostly on foot have been bleeding the RU military dry but now since they can't win a conventional war Putrid is going to kill the unarmed.
Jus ratchet
Let the RU generals know they will be hunted down, tried and go to jail once they lose this war.
Let that set in their brains
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)They've killed a bunch of them.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... field officers have to move closer to front line Russian troops for communication.
They know they're losing this and it's not going to get better for them.
On OSINT there are pics of RA forces training in civilians transports with Z on the side cause they've run out of military transport.
The ones that are alive should know they'll spend their lives on the run for their war crimes.
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)(Hard to imagine that generals would be reduced to such behavior, but this is what was reported.)
So when the RU generals went to the front line the UKR snipers got 'em.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)In the fog of war, it might be pretty easy to say "A sniper got him!"
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)Maybe his own troops got him finally.
Also the troops are probably angry that they were lied to about the invasion. And have run out of food, fuel, with paychecks that are worthless.
kentuck
(111,092 posts)There are only the dead and survivors.
Renew Deal
(81,856 posts)gab13by13
(21,333 posts)so that Trump or a Trump clone can win in 2024. Putin also wants the Putin Party to regain control of Congress. He will do whatever he can to get his GQP friends elected.
Liz Cheney gets it, she calls them Putin's wing of the Republican party, which is basically all of them. Maybe Mitt Romney gets a pass.
VWolf
(3,944 posts)And driving out Russia would most certainly be a "win"
PaulnFortWorth
(59 posts)In war, with few exceptions, there are only losers and bigger losers. France had not recovered from WWI when the Nazis invaded. Russia lost over 50 million people. The Japanese got nuked.
The exceptions? Popular uprisings like America, Ukraine, Texas, East Germany...
The autocrats world-wide are watching with a great deal of self interest. Their survival is at stake.
IronLionZion
(45,435 posts)Eventually Russia may decide it isn't worth it and leave. I would hope the Russian people and military have had enough of Putin too.
pandr32
(11,581 posts)PortTack
(32,762 posts)Response to Johnny2X2X (Original post)
Post removed
FSogol
(45,484 posts)Steven Maurer
(459 posts)Setting aside the defender's advantage which lies in the 3 to 1 territory, Ukraine's army of volunteers has literally gotten to the point where it's basically the size of Russia's.
Over the last 10 days, Russia has lost 5% of the nation's entire airforce, and about 4% of all its men under arms. If their losses keep up at this rate, there literally will be no Russian military left in 8 months.
PortTack
(32,762 posts)66k+ Ukrainians return home to fight the war
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/over-66200-ukrainian-men-have-returned-abroad-fight-says-defence-minister-2022-03-05/
President Zelenskiy says they now have 16k+ Trained volunteers from around the world that have answered his call
There are now more ppl in Ukraine wanting to join the military than they can accept
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/25/1083130131/thousands-rush-to-enlist-in-ukraines-army-to-fight-the-russian-invasion
sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)that the US needn't have worried about winning against them in a conventional war. What a horrible, costly, stupid idea.
liberalla
(9,244 posts)nuxvomica
(12,423 posts)So I am hoping the Russians don't make much headway by then. Because the invasion was approved based on a 14-day timetable, according to what I heard Malcolm Nance say on the radio, I'm thinking the military might apply some "pressure" on Putin then.
Johnny2X2X
(19,062 posts)He'll claim they eliminated the threat, blah blah blah.
Irish_Dem
(47,028 posts)With good strategic planning.
It looks like the generals fell asleep during "Theory and Practice of Military Strategy."
Cha
(297,196 posts)💙💛