Personally, I Have No Fear of Nuclear War, But...

[MineralMan]

I am 76 years old. A nuclear war might shorten or end my life. That's of little consequence to me, frankly. I live in a place likely to be part of a targeted area. I don't worry about that, although I'd rather live out my life, however long that will be.

However, nuclear war is not about me. I have four nieces and nephews. I have 12 great nieces and nephews. I have many friends, with offspring and relatives scattered all over the globe. Most do not live in targeted areas. I do worry about a nuclear war affecting their lives. The aftermath of a global nuclear conflict would be a horrific thing in uncountable ways for them.

So, if a nuclear war can be prevented, I hope it will be prevented. Conventional wars are horrifying, in their own way, but do not have massive global impact. It is a good thing to try to keep them limited and work toward a peaceful end to them. It is a very worthwhile thing to do.

So, you might be like me, and have no concern about your own life should there be a nuclear war. I would hope, however, that you do have concern about the lives of others, including your own relatives and people like them who you don't even know. Such concerns come from being human and thinking beyond oneself.

[Siwsan]

1. I feel like I've been living on the edge of a knife, for the past 2+ years. I'm beyond weary

Today I have a quick & easy dental appointment. The roads aren't the best. I just downed my anti-anxiety medication and hope it takes hold. I just want to get home and curl up in bed because I'm constantly waiting for another 'shoe to drop'.

This is not, at all, how I though I'd be spending my retirement. I'm just glad I have my two fur boys for company and distraction.

[MineralMan]

2. In many ways, I feel as if I have lived my entire live in precarious times.

I was born about a week before the Hiroshima bomb was dropped. So, My entire life has been lived in the age of possible nuclear war. I still hope it can be avoided, as I have always hoped.

Life is a challenge for everyone.

[RKP5637]

6. My greatest concern in all of this is, what's next after Ukraine. Will Putin keep playing

the nuke card. He's a sociopathic KGB person and he has a huge ego he's trying to please. It's so frustrating to see all of this unfolding. My hope is the jet fighters Ukraine will be receiving will help them knock the hell out of Russia. And, from what I've heard, the Ukrainian pilots are well trained on these fighter jets coming from Poland. I bet if you could poll them, a lot of Russians don't even want to be in Ukraine fighting. It's basically one man pursing all of this. There is something wrong when one person can wreak this much destruction. Yes, pets are incredible company. Mine were always just like family. I'm old enough that I was around when Hitler was. I hate F'en bullies.

[niyad]

8. Hugs to you and the furries. May the trip be an easy one.

[Siwsan]

11. Thanks.

My first filling in almost 20 years. I must be doing SOMETHING right.

[niyad]

3. I will be 72 next month, and I do not, and have not, been afraid for myself. But, as

Virginia Woolf said in another context, "As a woman, I have no country. As a woman, my country is the whole world." As a thinking, caring, rational (mostly) human, the whole world is my concern, so yes, the possibility of nuclear destruction must be countered in every way possible.

[MineralMan]

4. Thank you for that quote and your statement.

If we give up concern for the welfare of all human beings, we give up our humanity, I believe. There are always wars. There have always been wars. We needn't destroy civilization over them. That would make no sense at all.

[old as dirt]

5. The Hammer Has To Fall

Charlie King

My name is Daniel Berrigan, chaplan at a hospice for the dying.
I have seen the face of death. It is for life, I bring this hammer down.

My name is Molly Rush. I have six children, they deserve a future.
I strike this blow today for the children all the world around.

I hear the prophets' cry of hope ring through the prison wall.
We've waited thirty centuries to see that hammer fall.
If we think we've got thirty more, we cannot see at all.
For swords into plowshares, the hammer has to fall.

My name is Elmer Maas. Were this a peaceful world, I'd sit and play piano.
But lacking Nero's concience, I could not watch that fire devour the land.

My name is John Schuchardt. I am no stranger to the prison that awaits us.
But where genocide is legal, I stand an outlaw with a hammer in my hand.

I hear the prophets' cry of hope ring through the prison wall.
We've waited thirty centuries to see that hammer fall.
If we think we've got thirty more, we cannot see at all.
For swords into plowshares, the hammer has to fall.

Dean Hammer is my name. Mica and Isahia my tradition.
Oh, I tried to be their scholar, but could not escape their logic in the end.

My name is Philip Berrigan. In world war II I flew the bombing missions.
Now with every blow I strike today, I say the bombs will never fall again.

I hear the prophets' cry of hope ring through the prison wall.
We've waited thirty centuries to see that hammer fall.
If we think we've got thirty more, we cannot see at all.
For swords into plowshares, the hammer has to fall.

Carl Cabott is my name. I have lived and worked amoung the thirld world peoples.
I've seen corporations flourish, while the poor were left to fight for every breath.

My name is Anne Montgomery. My life spent in community with women.
I bring their healing power to this factory of of carnage and of death.

I hear the prophets' cry of hope ring through the prison wall.
We've waited thirty centuries to see that hammer fall.
If we think we've got thirty more, we cannot see at all.
For swords into plowshares, the hammer has to fall.

The hammer has to fall...

[redwitch]

22. Powerful!

Thank you for sharing this.

[wendyb-NC]

7. I agree 1000%

I have children, grandchildren, and all you stated above. I am part of a web of life, human and animal, plant, earth, eco-system, bio-sphere and beyond. These are all a common good, necessary past, present and future are inseparable, for me and every living being.

[niyad]

9. Exactly.

[Happy Hoosier]

10. Risk management....

I suggest folks consider risk management in this matter. In this case there is no such thing as ZERO residual risk.

The question is, what is the ACTUAL risk of a nuclear exchange, and what is our risk tolerance for the residual risk.

So long as Putin believes he is more risk tolerant than we are, he will push. But the idea that he and his generals are just itching to use nukes makes no sense. They have NOTHING to gain from that scenario.

HOWEVER, they have everything to gain from making us believe that they would.

The West is taking pains to ensure that we are communicating that our intention is NO nuclear exchange, and further we are communicating that we have a very low risk tolerance for that risk.

I'll let you do the math for how that works out.

Of course, there IS a risk in brinksmanship. But make no mistake. Putin is using our low risk tolerance to support his quest for a restored Russian Empire. It's only a question of how far we let him go before we signal our risk tolerance is as high or higher than his.

[MineralMan]

13. Putin's war in Ukraine is not going well for him.

Yes, he can cause a great deal of damage in Ukraine with it. However, he cannot occupy Ukraine. The resources simply do not exist for Russia to do that.

I think it is very likely that his attack on Ukraine will end before long. I cannot imagine that it can be continued much longer. He will seek a way to pretend he won and withdraw. The alternative is economically and diplomatically untenable.

The approach the West is taking, using harsh economic sanctions, will win in the end, albeit with a lot of suffering for Ukraine, but that country was going to suffer greatly in any case, given Putin's decisions.

[Happy Hoosier]

18. We will see.

I hope you are right. I think you are not. I expect it will take a coup to end this favorably. Economic sanctions alone will not do it. Putin will not acknowledge defeat and he is accountable to no one, short of a coup.

[MineralMan]

20. Indeed we will see. Since none of us is in a position to change anything

with regard to that, about the only thing we can do is watch and see. However, others are working to end the conflict. I rely on their efforts, frankly.

[Happy Hoosier]

21. I can do nothing but advocate and...

… hope leadership is successful.

I will point out when I think they are making a mistake, but I will always hope for their success

[MineralMan]

23. When I consider how limited the information I have is,

I really have to trust our elected leadership to use its vastly superior information to guide decisions. Then, like you, I hope for their success. I feel much better, however, having Joe Biden as the President than the previous person in that office. Oh, yes, I do.

[marie999]

12. I am 78 and have 13 great-grandchildren, the oldest 15 years old, the youngest 2.

I worry more about climate change because nuclear war is a possibility and climate change is definite.

[MineralMan]

14. I worry about both. It is not a zero-sum thing.

[spanone]

15. ...K&R...

Thanks MM

[MineralMan]

16. Thank you for reading my thoughts on this.

[hamsterjill]

17. I fear more than just nuclear war.

I fear what the dictators will get simply by threatening. We have to come to terms that the civil “agreement” that nukes not be used has no meaning any longer. If one sees another threaten and get rewarded by the threat, others will want to use the threat as well.

I fear for my country which is more divided than I’ve ever seen it, and perhaps more than it ever has been. I fear the disinformation campaigns and the anger and the meanness. I fear the pandemic and the stupidity that I see associated with it

I fear that Trump will not ever be held accountable and by that he has successfully weakened the office of the President of the United States to buffoonery. America can’t be the leader of the free world when we don’t have our shit together at home. Who will we get next?

I fear our democracy is not salvageable.

I fear all of this both for myself (selfishly) and my future humankind and animal kind. Compassion and understanding have been weakened instead of being strengthened - at least by so many groups that don’t give a damn about anyone who may be the least bit different.

We are simply heading in the wrong direction and we have been in my opinion since at least 2000 of jot before.

[MineralMan]

19. There are many things to be concerned about.

We have to take them one at a time, though. Rather than throw up our hands helplessly, we can identify the most pressing problem at any given time and focus on solving that problem. Then, we can turn to the next one.

One disaster at a time. That's about all we puny humans can deal with, I think. Trying to deal with them all can only lead to despair.

[hamsterjill]

24. The problem is, however, we are faced with all of these right now.

Thus compounding the anxiety for many of us.

For me, the antidote is action. We need to call Putin’s bluff. There’s really no other way because he won’t stop until he’s stopped.

We need to deal with the Trump crap and get it behind us. Now!!!

We are not out of the pandemic yet and need to realize that and hold on a little longer.

[usonian]

25. Russia Really Could Use A Nuclear Weapon In The Ukraine Conflict - The DEFCON Warning System

Perhaps airing this out generally will prevent such an occurrence. That is my hope.


https://defconwarningsystem.com/2022/03/07/russia-really-could-use-a-nuclear-weapon-in-the-ukraine-conflict/

—————snip——————-

The Russian President vastly misread the room.
And now Russia is stuck.  It has three options:
1. Push for a quick resolution.

2. Get stuck in a quagmire.

3. Withdraw in humiliation.


A quick resolution can take two forms.  It can be Ukraine’s surrender or a negotiation.
A negotiated settlement could happen, but for now the terms are not something Ukraine is willing to swallow.  Maybe after a few more cities are taken, that might change.

Russia doesn’t want to get stuck in Ukraine for long.  Especially now that it virtually has no economy.  Wars cost money and a citizenry who didn’t want the war in the first place is unlikely to tolerate economic hardship.

And if anyone thinks Russia is going to withdraw and face a humiliating defeat at the hands of Ukraine…well, bridge/sale/you get the idea.

Russia wants a quick end to the war.  End the Russian losses and end the economic devastation.  If Ukraine is unwilling to give them a quick end, what is Russia to do?

And now here is where the calculus gets dangerous.

Already we see Russia attempting to wear down Ukraine by attacking civilians.  They are using illegal weapons and targeting illegal targets.  Russia is already accused of war crimes.

Inside Russia, the Russian President is facing a military who didn’t want the war and an inner circle that is beginning to think maybe the President needs to be “delt with, Russian style”.  After all, a head on a pike would certainly end the war and allow Russia to withdraw with some honour, putting all the blame for the war on the dead guy.

So here is what Russia is facing.  And time is running out.  Some calculations say Russia can hold out until June.  Three months?  Can their economy last that long?   Ukraine doesn’t need to win.  They just need to hold out until Russia collapses.

This brings us to the dangerous option Russia has.  A way to possibly end the war quickly.

A nuclear attack, a demonstration bomb over the sea or over Ukraine.
From Russia’s point of view, they could see such an event propelling Ukraine to surrender.  Additionally, Russia may think that NATO, fearing what Russia is capable of, would refrain from responding.  After all, it wasn’t NATO that was attacked, and any response would certainly invite Russia to counterattack on their home soil.
Would Russia risk it?  It’s unthinkable.  But is it impossible?

The DEFCON Warning System believes that this is an option that is on the table.  Russia has many options.  This is one of them.  Doesn’t mean they’ll do it.  In fact, let’s go so far as to say they won’t do it.  But it is something that is considered.

—————snip——————-

This brings up many parallels. For example, wasn't the U.S. in WW II urged to drop atomic bombs on an unpopulated area, or military target? Some people say that "1984" prevented "1984", for a while, anyway.

And by bringing this up in the open, isn’t it like “defanging disinformation”?

Arguably, this is the strategy used to counter IN ADVANCE Putin’s lies, namely repeated false flag claims.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bidens-bold-gamble-might-just-save-ukraine-opinion/ar-AAUCzCJ
Biden's Bold Gamble Might Just Save Ukraine | Opinion

If everyone says you’re going to do something, doesn’t that rob you of your power to surprise with your “genius”?

Prebunking and inoculation references
https://theconversation.com/how-to-inoculate-people-against-donald-trumps-fact-bending-claims-56489
How to inoculate people against Donald Trump’s fact bending claims
Published: March 22, 2016 10.02pm EDT
(note the date)

https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/global-vaccination-badnews/
https://blogs.biomedcentral.com/on-society/2019/10/07/the-new-science-of-prebunking-how-to-inoculate-against-the-spread-of-misinformation/
https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/global-vaccination-badnews/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2020/04/10/is-there-a-proven-method-to-combat-disinformation/?sh=67283b872772
https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/covid/inoculating-against-disinformation/?amp=1