excellent UNROLLED twitter thread on the condition of Russian forces...

[Grasswire2]

...bogged down, haven't moved and now out of supplies.

All here at the link, unrolled, from Professor of Strategic Studies, St. Andrews.

[link:https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500740225831735296.html|


snip

So any Russian forward movement is likely to be extremely costly. Its hard to imagine now any land assault on Kyiv. Would take two to three more resupplies--and there are indications that Russian morale wont tolerate that (and they might be out of trucks then anyway).
If they wanted to take Kyiv we are talking a massive effort for months. They have given no indication that the could carry it off. They would probably have to get working rail lines into Ukraine at this point. It would be a major undertaking.
Instead we are seeing the contours of a new Russian strategy emerging, that holds out only the prospect of bankruptcy and permanent war. They might gear up to take the larger cities of eastern Ukraine (Kharkiv) and try to blow up as much of the rest with missiles and bombs
Not sure what that accomplishes. They would still have to undertake some terrible street by street fighting and if anything stiffen Ukrainian resistance with the indiscriminate attacks.
At the same time the Russian economy will continue its collapse brought on by the sanctions. btw, Fascists like to dress up and look tough, but Fascism only works when you can reward your followers with goodies.

[uponit7771]

1. K&R, there have been pics of Russian civilian vehicles on tracks on OSINT because they've either

... run out of military ones or are going for infiltration tactics.

RA is weak and getting weaker by the day.

[ZonkerHarris]

2. k&r

[peggysue2]

3. The shock for me at least is . . .

Where is the Russian army? Where is the mighty force that Putin promised, the force that would roll over Ukraine in a week? Why have the logistics been so screwed up? One would think that no one had a plan regarding this invasion. Or that the elites have bled the system so dry of manpower and equipment that Russia is rocked on its heels, left to replace their own troops by calling up mercenaries from Russia's presumed ally list.

This is not to minimize the battering the Ukrainians have suffered thus far; their efforts to repel the Russians has been nothing short of amazing. However, this stalled effort must be a shock to Putin's military leaders and if the Russian populace weren't trapped in an information vacuum, they'd be equally startled.

Where oh where did all that money go?? What were the boasts of military supremacy all about?

The mighty Bear under Putin is not looking good.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. Logistics screwed up because

* Navy got disproportionate amount of money
* Only super powers can have both a navy and an army
* Putin's Russia is not an oligarchy, it's a kleptocracy
* Everyone down the chain gets a cut
* Until you reach the grunts, who are ill-fed, underpaid, poorly trained, and lied to
* So there is more inventory taking than maintenance
* Cheap tires from China
* No second echelon because a) too expensive, b) not in the plan
* Plan was for quick victory
* Russian logistics depends on trucks and roads
* Mud month has begun precluding off-road
* Russia low on smart ordinance, so they don't have air superiority
* Thus convoys get bogged down, run out of fuel
* Three abreast on roads (to save time) means that foulups / damage are blockages

Explore the threads by Kamil Galeev on Twitter.

[PortTack]

11. Thx..great rundown of what's going on with the Russians

[monkeyman1]

13. sound's like a army that "tdfg " would put together !

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. He didn't get past creating uniforms for his Space farce. . . nt

[monkeyman1]

23. got me , forgot about that !! you rite !

[peggysue2]

24. Excellent rundown.

Thanks!

Still surprised, however.

[ProfessorGAC]

30. Your 9th Point Is The Linchpin

They expected a quick victory. Anything other than that was going to create a situation they can't afford.
The rest of your points are good reasons they don't have the efficient military they thought they had.
So, they need a military they can't afford to get the quick victory they can afford.
Or they get slow progress of a military they can afford, to get an occupation they can't afford.
On top of all that, the global response has been quicker & mor aggressive than they anticipated.
It's all one colossal miscalculation and comes down to money in a country with a pissant economy.

[oldsoftie]

7. Well, there's 200k there now, plus all those just across the border "trying" to support;

then you've got to figure how many are still in Russia, which is a pretty big country. They wouldn't leave it undefended. But the fact that even the "crack" forces have done just that shows the inferiority of authoritarian/communist armies compared to Western forces.

[jaxexpat]

18. Do you think the Chinese army is equally ill prepared"?

[relayerbob]

28. No

Russia has shown itself to be one of the worst fighting nations in modern history. No better than, and possibly worse than Iraq. Would be damn difficult to be as bad or worse. It will, however, give some pause to China, seeing the costs of an invasion. Taiwan is better defended, and requires amphibious assaults, not just plow down some roads.

[Metaphorical]

29. No

The Chinese are fundamentally bureaucrats. Yes, there are bribes, extortion and corruption, but the Chinese in general tend to mete out significant punishment if someone is found guilty of unreasonable bribery. There are also far more Chinese soldiers than Russian ones (2 million active-duty + 1 million reserves compared to about 1 million total (on paper) for the Russians, which looks like it may have been considerably exaggerated). For comparison, there are about 1.3 million active duty and about 700,000 reserves members in the US Department of Defense. I think people are shocked out how poorly prepared the Russian Army is, but the Chinese would be a far tougher challenge.

As someone else pointed out on this thread, the Russians also miscalculated by investing too heavily in their navy, primarily their subfleet and associated personnel. Unfortunately subs don't do much good for the Russians in Ukraine.

[oldsoftie]

31. we must remember that China looks at troops as fodder.

In Korea they would just throw 1000s in a charge not caring about casualties because they have SO many people. And they did stop the Allies advance by those numbers. But the Cheese lost nearly a MILLION troops doing it. My uncle told me they fired their machine guns for so long they had to constantly pack snow over the gun to keep it firing and not overheating.
How they equal the same as the Russians is the fact that the Chinese also will give little valuable info or autonomy to lower ranking troops. Thats how all those types of armies operate; they don't want the "average soldier" to have too much knowledge or power.
In the case of Taiwan, they'd be up against even better equipment

[obamanut2012]

14. This is the Russian Army

The rest is in various bank accounts.

[Renew Deal]

15. Russia didn't want to initiate their version of the draft because it would alarm citizens that

they are trying to keep in the dark. Russia would have no problem coming up with soldiers if they were invaded. But they can't easily call for general mobilization. If they did, they would have 2 million soldiers that they couldn't move around, feed, etc.

[jmowreader]

21. Most Russian soldiers are draftees

They call them conscripts, but it’s the same thing. Russian conscripts get a dollar a day, a bed that’s a foot narrower than an American twin size, and three meals a day - half of which they grew themselves. It’s no wonder the troops have said “fuck this.”

[cab67]

26. Lots of problems with Russian air force

The Russians have 5th generation fighters like our f-22 and f-35, but they haven’t been deployed.

From everything I’ve read, part of the problem is specialization. They’ve never really developed the multi-role capabilities of something like an f/a-18 or our 5th gen planes. They’re dedicated to either air combat or ground attack. And their ground attack is geared toward fixed targets - not the mobile targets the Ukrainian forces have presented.

[getagrip_already]

4. often, it's the little things that tell you a lot.......

i saw a photo of captured russian gear. Not weapons, but personal gear. The sleeping bags were standard boy scout issue. Nothing light weight or compact about them. It looked like they went into their attic and grabbed them because the army didn't issue them any. They were camo covered, so maybe the army did issue them, but really, it is not what you would expect a modern army to carry into a winter battle. Likewise tents did not look military.

Seems odd to me anyway.

[lindysalsagal]

5. I'm relieved that the soviets have not shown enough capability to take or

hold more than a few small towns on the borders. This is all going better for Ukraine than I had feared.

[oldsoftie]

9. The longer they hold on the better. And they're getting better equipment too

Plus, getting better figuring out the Russians. Of course, the Russians are also trying to figure out the Ukrainians, but the UKR forces are much more flexible so it seems.
At SOME point the people back home in Russia will hopefully get even MORE against this ridiculous invasion.

[SWBTATTReg]

8. I got a funny feeling that the Russian billionaires will suffer accordingly, since they ripped off

the Moscow gravy train/Moscow's Armed Forces, leaving them woefully underprepared.

Figures when you have a megalomaniac in charge of things, along w/ his Billionaire buddies. Putin won't be happy.

[orwell]

10. This is "good" news...

...but bottom line innocents are dying for the ego of one little man.

If everything ended today the amount of damage inflicted by this bastard will take decades to repair. There are no winners.

My heart goes out to these brave people and to all the terrorized populations (Yemini) caught in the jaws of the global war machine.

Fuck Putin.
Fuck This War.
Fuck the people that support this monster, whether here at home or abroad.

Fucking War is a Racket...

Thanks for the post BTW. DU is a great aggregator...

[obamanut2012]

12. This is the Russian Army

The rest of it is in Putin and his buddies' bank accounts.

[ouija]

16. Oligarchs looted the military

They are using Soviet tanks and getting obliterated by javelins

[Thunderbeast]

17. Oligarchs built their own navy

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/03/here-are-the-russian-oligarch-yachts-being-seized-as-sanctions-take-effect.html

[sarge43]

19. The Failed Logistics of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[The Unmitigated Gall]

22. What should have been the invincible Russian war machine

Is sailing the only the best seas and docking at only the best docks.

[femmedem]

25. Good news but many Ukrainians don't have heat, electricity, water, medicine.

I don't know which side is suffering more from lack of supplies.

[oldsoftie]

32. Soon heat won't be as bi of an issue. Temps are rising 7 will continue to.

The rest we just have to find a way to GET it to them.

[paleotn]

27. Can they fight house to house, room to room in Kyiv?

A very large city? Doubtful. You think Russian morale is bad now. Wait until the experience an urban meatgrinder.