How far can Putin push his nuclear threat?

[Cyrano]

"Don't declare Ukraine a no-fly zone. I have a nuclear arsenal."

"Don't give Ukraine fighter jets, anti-aircraft missiles, or other advanced weaponry. I have a nuclear arsenal."

"Your sanctions are going too far. I have a nuclear arsenal."

If Putin were to actually use those nuclear weapons, we, and every NATO nuclear member would reply in kind. The name for that is Armageddon. -- The destruction of most of the civilized world. -- A quick trip back to the caves for survivors.

Is Putin really that crazy? He'd like everyone to think he is. After all, countries with nuclear arsenals have no need to say, "I have a nuclear arsenal." So why is he saying it? -- Because it's his ultimate threat, which means he has nothing lesser to threaten us with.

And what if he succeeds in taking Ukraine and then decides he's going to continue taking over non-NATO eastern European countries that used to be part of the former Soviet Union? Will we let him do it because of his nuclear arsenal?

At some point, someone, (Joe Biden/NATO leaders), have to decide where to draw a line.

The sanctions are starting to hurt Russia (and the oligarchs) badly. So here's my guess as to upcoming possibilities: (1) Lindsay Graham will get his wish; (2) Putin will take over Ukraine and weather the sanctions (with China's help); (3) Putin will stop his army, but keep them where they are for a long-term stalemate; (4) Putin may/will use his nuclear arsenal.

There may be more scenarios, but the four I've stated above seem like the most likely. However, what I think doesn't matter. What Putin thinks, does. How do you think this horror will unfold?

[SheltieLover]

1. Russia must be brought to its knees & forced to disarm all nukes. Imperative!

Fuck this sob threatening the world AND attacking 3 nuke facilities!

No lifting of sanctions without this completed. Not promised because their word means nothing. Completed!

[Cyrano]

6. This will never happen

What if America, or the UK, or Israel were told to "disarm all nukes"? It just ain't in the cards.

[SheltieLover]

7. Bring russia to its knees with sanctions & FORCE fhem to disarm nukes.

Nobody cares what they want. The world is damned tired of being held hostage by another of Russia's mad men.

Force them to.

[Zeitghost]

11. They will use them before they give them up

They need no better example than Ukraine for why it is imperative to not give them up.

[SheltieLover]

12. If their country is in revolt & sanctions have broken the economy there, perhaps not

[SoonerPride]

2. Unless NATO countries set boots on the ground or planes above Ukraine, nothing nuvclear will happen

The rest is bluster.

[nancy1942]

3. Option 4 most likely.

He's not a rational person apt to act in a rational manner. Only my opinion and I hope I'm wrong.

[lark]

5. I think this is the least likely because it will kill Russia.

I think long term occupation is the best he gets but I'm thinking it will probably be relatively short term because long term Ukraine will throw him or his hand picked traitors out and he will be so weakened he can't respond.

[RobinA]

13. I Agree

The minute he presses the nuclear button he loses power. Afterwards it's over one way or the other. I don't think he is crazy. He may have overplayed his hand, but then again he may not have. To me he should have been using all this time to shore up his own country with all his oil dollars. Assuming, of course, that he even cares about his country.

Which is not to say that there will be no WW3. No one plans for that, but it does tend to happen in the course of human events.

[drray23]

4. Regarding Option (4)

The question becomes, if he gives the order does his miltary obeys or depose him ?
Also,is Russia nuclear arsenal is working order. Its very costly to maintain a functional arsenal. Given the shape his conventional forces are in, its likely some of his nuclear arsenal has been affected by rampant corruption, budget cuts, incompetence. etc..

[Cyrano]

8. We can only hope the military would depose him

They're probably already pissed over the quagmire into which Putin has put Russia.

[regnaD kciN]

9. I think the assumption of "going nuclear"...

…is that Putrid, facing something he didn’t like from the west, would simply nuke everywhere.

But, more likely, it would be an extended game of chicken. Say, he used a tactical nuke on a secondary Ukrainian city that had been resisting his advances. What does the west do? Most likely, the response would be to use a similar battlefield device against an area where Russian troops control. Then, maybe, he decides to retaliate with a small-scale attack on the location from which that missile was launched — and we do the same. Then, they hit a medium-sized city in a NATO country, and we do the same to a similar-sized city in Russia with a military presence. Eventually, it gets to the point where either you accept the other side “won” by getting in the last shot, or you go full Armageddon. At that point, their military is going to be so invested in “not backing down,” that rationality will take a back seat to inflamed national pride, and decisions will be made on the basis of “Hopefully, I’ll survive” rather than averting disaster for anyone else.

[uponit7771]

10. Not far, Putin's move was petulant learning that his forces are getting their asses kicked

[themaguffin]

14. The No Fly Zone was a given from the beginning. Putin didn't need to threaten it