Can Ukrainian Freedom Fighters Stand Up to the Russian Military? History Suggests They Can

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/can-ukrainian-freedom-fighters-stand-up-to-the-russian-military

No paywall
(archive site isn't working for me, let me know if you need it and I'll try again)

On paper, Russia’s quest to occupy Ukraine looks like a foregone conclusion. With about four and a half times as many soldiers, five times as many tanks and armored vehicles, and 10 times as many military aircraft, common sense tells us that Ukraine does not stand a chance.

In fact, history tells us otherwise.

From street-corner fistfights to insurgencies and wars, size is a terrible predictor for the outcome of human conflict. We are unique among mammals in our ability to defeat a larger, more powerful opponent; were this not so, the world would be composed of fascist mega-states and human freedom would not be possible. We readily risk our lives to defend others, as combat narratives for Medal of Honor recipients make abundantly clear. The smaller the group, the more stubbornly loyal members are to one another, and the harder—and costlier—they are to defeat.

In 1604, the Ottoman Empire decided that the small, mountainous principality of Montenegro had to be crushed. The Montenegrins were a famously warlike people who had always rejected any form of dominion and supposedly feared nothing except dying peacefully in bed. They inhabited a land that was too poor to support large concentrations of people, but the scattered population invariably came together to fight invaders. The Ottomans boasted some 12,000 men, including cavalry and artillery, and faced a mere 900 Montenegrins. The Montenegrins were unfazed, though, and sent three-man raiding parties out all night before attacking at dawn. They killed one third of the Ottoman army and sent the rest packing.

Even in personal combat, size and power have crucial downsides. Huge muscles move slower, react sluggishly, and use more oxygen than small ones. As a result, smaller fighters can sustain a higher level of intensity than larger ones, and they win about half the time in mixed martial arts—an utter impossibility for the rest of the animal kingdom. And the basic dynamics of asymmetric conflict readily scale up. Mechanized armies like the Russian force that invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s and plunged into Ukraine last month move slowly, are impossible to hide, and use huge amounts of fuel and ammunition. They can pulverize anything they encounter but cannot sustain such an effort for long. Airpower is devastating as well, but creates logistical vulnerabilities that come into play if the conflict drags on too long. There does not seem to be enough jet fuel in the world to keep enough aircraft aloft to kill all the people willing to die fighting them.

*snip*

[Drum]

2. Strength to Ukraine! 🇺🇦

[uponit7771]

3. K&R, we're WATCHING WW3 where the expensive, heavy and shiny shit isn't going to be effective

... against dismounted individual troops with force multipliers.

Read on OSINT the RA is dismounting and attacking UA forces in the east !!!

They can see where UA is winning against large Russian movements

[WarGamer]

4. It depends.

If the Russians feel they have all the time in the world... they will isolate and surround cities, then starve them out. They will turn off the lights and heat and let the defenders come walking out.

Think Leningrad. (PS didn't work for the Germans)

If the Russians feel they want to "conquer" Kiev then they will follow the Battle of Berlin playbook meaning block by block assaults backed up with ground and aerial artillery.

I don't think the Russians have the guts to do #2 because it might draw NATO into the war.

I see them encircling Kiev, turning off the lights and leaving ONE road out.

[Nevilledog]

5. You don't think sanctions will have any thing to do with the choice?

[WarGamer]

7. No.

Russia is too independent. They can handle short term inconvenience.

For now, a Russian worker is STILL getting paid let's say 100k Rubles a month. Same as last month. He goes in the store and a pound of pork is still 1000 Rubles.

Moscow is paying it's bills with Rubles.

The Bank of Russia is holding around 700 Billion dollars in foreign CURRENCY, mostly USD and Euros.

I mean, I expect to see things like shortages... maybe less fresh fruit? But Russia has extensive agriculture capacity and a relatively small population and add in the assistance from China and India... they'll be OK.

Sanctions WILL work... but not in the short term. The most powerful tool today is turning them into an international pariah.

And don't forget, sanctions are also meant to be a reward for getting OUT of Ukraine. So, a month from now if/when Moscow and the West hammer out a Diplomatic deal... sanctions will be part of the deal.

IMHO, the greatest defeat has to be for Putin personally and the Russian military in general. I think Putin thought his invasion would look like Iraq 2003, Border to Baghdad in no time.

[SheltieLover]

6. Kicking for visibility

[Cha]

8. And, Ukrainians are Fighting For

their Lives, Loved Ones, their Homes and their Cities. 💙💛

The Invaders are following the Mad Russian's Orders to Kill.