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Does there come a point at which the world must call Putin's nuke bluff? (Original Post) Stinky The Clown Mar 2022 OP
What makes you think it is a bluff? DURHAM D Mar 2022 #1
+1000, great points WarGamer Mar 2022 #3
Hope it doesn't come to that point Ouroborosnek Mar 2022 #2
attack on a NATO country. WarGamer Mar 2022 #4
So if he carpet bombs Kyiv qazplm135 Mar 2022 #14
So if he moves on Finland or Sweden thucythucy Mar 2022 #19
Think the world has called his "bluff" sending weapons/supplies to Ukraine. Hoyt Mar 2022 #5
This. NewHendoLib Mar 2022 #6
He is getting off on his tiny saber rattling. BigmanPigman Mar 2022 #7
It all depends on Putin, on what he's deluded enough to demand. thucythucy Mar 2022 #8
Keep in mind he's a bully, PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2022 #9
That assumes it's a bluff relayerbob Mar 2022 #10
I love your idea of flying in humanitarian aid! SheltieLover Mar 2022 #17
If he attacks a NATO country or commits genocide radius777 Mar 2022 #11
Russian Roulette with nukes, no thanks. dem4decades Mar 2022 #12
His bluff has already been called. PSPS Mar 2022 #13
No n/t Strelnikov_ Mar 2022 #15
It's all about the "Fuck around and find out" factor. denbot Mar 2022 #16
This message was self-deleted by its author jfz9580m Mar 2022 #18
Russia sees nukes differently, they are comfortable using limited tactical battlefield nukes Shanti Shanti Shanti Mar 2022 #20

Ouroborosnek

(623 posts)
2. Hope it doesn't come to that point
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 12:18 AM
Mar 2022

But I also wonder the same, it's all out of my wheelhouse and way above my pay grade.

It's so brutal and heart wrenching to see the images/videos/stories going on right now, what would that point look like?

all I can do is be a in the darkness

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
14. So if he carpet bombs Kyiv
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 02:29 AM
Mar 2022

And other cities or use says chem or bio or tac nuke in Ukraine, no intervention?

BigmanPigman

(51,565 posts)
7. He is getting off on his tiny saber rattling.
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 12:28 AM
Mar 2022

Putin needs a bigger saber, his current one is too small and impotent. His Napoleon Complex is showing.

thucythucy

(8,038 posts)
8. It all depends on Putin, on what he's deluded enough to demand.
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 12:42 AM
Mar 2022

He may eventually make a demand so outrageous that calling the bluff is the better option.

The problem becomes--once you buckle under to that sort of threat two or three times, you lose all credibility when and if you DO decide to call the bluff. After remilitarizing the Rhineland, invading Austria, gobbling up the Sudetenland, and then the rest of Czechoslovakia, all without the Allies calling his bluff, Hitler didn't believe Britain and France would declare war over Poland. Why Poland, but not Czechoslovakia? Poland wasn't even a democracy, and prior to 1939 was not part of a defense pact with the west--whereas Prague was both. The fact is that no one except Hitler wanted another major war, but his own willingness to bring it on was enough.

As for Putin, where would we draw that line?

If he--

demands that at least some of the sanctions be lifted, or else nukes?

then demands that all the sanctions be lifted, or else?

then demands we recognize a puppet government of Ukraine?

then demands that all NATO forces be withdrawn from the Baltic States?

then demands that all eastern tier NATO members (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania...) withdraw from NATO, or else nukes?

then demands that Finland once again come under the control of Moscow?

Would we, should we be willing to risk nuclear war over Finland? Why Finland, but not Ukraine?

What if he then demands that Alaska be returned to Russia, or else?

I'm not saying any of this will happen, of course not, but clearly there must come a point where we either call the bluff,or be willing to live our lives at the whim of any authoritarian with nukes who might demand our compliance.

Shut down American media critical of Russia, or else nukes?

Reinstate Trump?

Deliver three trillion dollars a year in goods and services to Russia, or else nukes?

Where do we draw the line, and after drawing it, how do we convince Putin this time we REALLY mean it?

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,812 posts)
9. Keep in mind he's a bully,
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 12:51 AM
Mar 2022

and bullies tend to crumble when confronted.

I know this on a personal level, as my older brother is a bully. I'm the only one of my sisters who has ever confronted him, and I'm the only one who doesn't get ongoing grief from him.

While I know that Putin is a lot different from my brother, I will still say, confront him. Don't crumble under his bullshit. Call his bluff. It is almost undoubtedly a bluff. Do NOT succumb to his bullying tactics, don't cower under his attacks. Be strong.

relayerbob

(6,537 posts)
10. That assumes it's a bluff
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 12:51 AM
Mar 2022

Russian war planning calls for winning a nuclear war with battlefield level weapons, they've been practicing it for many years. It's very reasonable to believe Putin (I started to type Trump) is deluded enough to believe that he can fire off a few small nukes . So, that makes it a much harder calculation.

What if he uses it strictly on a military target, say an air base in Ukraine? That's one scenario that could happen whether we go in or not. If so, how do we respond? Massive, overwhelming, conventional attacks while loudly proclaiming that we won't use nukes might work without it escalating. What if he decides to take out a city? We would have to respond in some way, probably the same way. However, what if he uses a dozen? That means he's gone over the edge, and the military either can't control him, or has gone all-in (as in the US, he can't by himself, launch nuclear weapons, there is a chain of command and checkpoints in the process). That's when things turn south, in a hurry.

To me, this will require a great deal of self-restraint on NATO, avoiding nukes while using our far superior militaries to take his out, while avoiding civilian casualties. Beyond that, we respond basicilly one for one, and hope one gets him, or the more sane General's do.

Personally, I advocate sending in a fleet of transports, Berlin lift-style (maybe 8 or 10) with humanitarian aid, escorted by very visible F-16s and F-15s, with a very quiet group of 4 or 5 F-22s flying high above. Declare a 30 or 50 mile no-fly radius. Be very visible and very transparent about it, especially the humanitarian aid part of it, with reporters on the planes, perhaps. Make it clear that any attacks on the air fleet will result in the immediate destruction of the attacking force, as well as a declaration of war by Russia. This puts that ball in Putin's court, and pushes every button he has, but in a way that the world will recognize who starts what. He probably backs off, and that's that. After that, we increase the aid flights and fill the sky with numerous aid flights, while ignoring his bluster. This makes his air operations very much more difficult.

The Russian game plan seems to have their armies retreating from a NATO "aggressor" and using the weapon on their own soil to minimize the political and military blowback, while dividing the West. If they start the next phase by attacking a humanitarian airlift, and we respond in kind, he doesn't have an option to nuke an advancing army. Then, does he fire on one of more NATO airbases.

Either way, especially if he only hits a few military targets, we hold our fire on the nukes, and go after them with every conventional thing we have. Also, since we seem to have hacked their comm systems, doing everything possible to delete said order and/or shut down his nukes, including GPS and other space assets, would seem to be in order.

Otherwise, I think we stay out, and let Russia sort this out. Frankly, I believe it will, and sooner rather than later. Putin's days are numbered.



Fascinating, if scary, article from 2015: https://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war

SheltieLover

(57,073 posts)
17. I love your idea of flying in humanitarian aid!
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 06:32 AM
Mar 2022

With the parameters in place, as you specified.

I'm guessing there are plenty of military folks who would love to help out in this manner!

radius777

(3,635 posts)
11. If he attacks a NATO country or commits genocide
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 12:52 AM
Mar 2022

in Ukraine or elsewhere ... or does anything nuclear (including blowing up a power plant). I think those are the lines that would force the West to intervene.

The rest of his 'demands' are shit and nobody listens to them, ie about sanctions being 'war'. Fuck him. The West knows its lines and is prepared to act if crossed.

denbot

(9,898 posts)
16. It's all about the "Fuck around and find out" factor.
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 04:22 AM
Mar 2022

While Putin might be enamored by his own farts, his military and intelligence structures won’t be..

Response to Stinky The Clown (Original post)

 

Shanti Shanti Shanti

(12,047 posts)
20. Russia sees nukes differently, they are comfortable using limited tactical battlefield nukes
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 12:23 PM
Mar 2022

Their current mobile missile launchers can use nuke warheads, in Ukraine, but no need right now.

We saw in Aleppo how their scorched earth tactics work, reduce cities to rubble, grind on, still no chemical attacks, like in Syria.

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