General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDoes there come a point at which the world must call Putin's nuke bluff?
I'm not so advocating.
I'm asking.
This is a place for discussion.
DURHAM D
(32,605 posts)If he has a terminal disease I would never assume he is bluffing.
WarGamer
(12,338 posts)Ouroborosnek
(623 posts)But I also wonder the same, it's all out of my wheelhouse and way above my pay grade.
It's so brutal and heart wrenching to see the images/videos/stories going on right now, what would that point look like?
all I can do is be a in the darkness
WarGamer
(12,338 posts)Anything less... nope
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)And other cities or use says chem or bio or tac nuke in Ukraine, no intervention?
thucythucy
(8,038 posts)we let it go?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)BigmanPigman
(51,565 posts)Putin needs a bigger saber, his current one is too small and impotent. His Napoleon Complex is showing.
thucythucy
(8,038 posts)He may eventually make a demand so outrageous that calling the bluff is the better option.
The problem becomes--once you buckle under to that sort of threat two or three times, you lose all credibility when and if you DO decide to call the bluff. After remilitarizing the Rhineland, invading Austria, gobbling up the Sudetenland, and then the rest of Czechoslovakia, all without the Allies calling his bluff, Hitler didn't believe Britain and France would declare war over Poland. Why Poland, but not Czechoslovakia? Poland wasn't even a democracy, and prior to 1939 was not part of a defense pact with the west--whereas Prague was both. The fact is that no one except Hitler wanted another major war, but his own willingness to bring it on was enough.
As for Putin, where would we draw that line?
If he--
demands that at least some of the sanctions be lifted, or else nukes?
then demands that all the sanctions be lifted, or else?
then demands we recognize a puppet government of Ukraine?
then demands that all NATO forces be withdrawn from the Baltic States?
then demands that all eastern tier NATO members (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania...) withdraw from NATO, or else nukes?
then demands that Finland once again come under the control of Moscow?
Would we, should we be willing to risk nuclear war over Finland? Why Finland, but not Ukraine?
What if he then demands that Alaska be returned to Russia, or else?
I'm not saying any of this will happen, of course not, but clearly there must come a point where we either call the bluff,or be willing to live our lives at the whim of any authoritarian with nukes who might demand our compliance.
Shut down American media critical of Russia, or else nukes?
Reinstate Trump?
Deliver three trillion dollars a year in goods and services to Russia, or else nukes?
Where do we draw the line, and after drawing it, how do we convince Putin this time we REALLY mean it?
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,812 posts)and bullies tend to crumble when confronted.
I know this on a personal level, as my older brother is a bully. I'm the only one of my sisters who has ever confronted him, and I'm the only one who doesn't get ongoing grief from him.
While I know that Putin is a lot different from my brother, I will still say, confront him. Don't crumble under his bullshit. Call his bluff. It is almost undoubtedly a bluff. Do NOT succumb to his bullying tactics, don't cower under his attacks. Be strong.
relayerbob
(6,537 posts)Russian war planning calls for winning a nuclear war with battlefield level weapons, they've been practicing it for many years. It's very reasonable to believe Putin (I started to type Trump) is deluded enough to believe that he can fire off a few small nukes . So, that makes it a much harder calculation.
What if he uses it strictly on a military target, say an air base in Ukraine? That's one scenario that could happen whether we go in or not. If so, how do we respond? Massive, overwhelming, conventional attacks while loudly proclaiming that we won't use nukes might work without it escalating. What if he decides to take out a city? We would have to respond in some way, probably the same way. However, what if he uses a dozen? That means he's gone over the edge, and the military either can't control him, or has gone all-in (as in the US, he can't by himself, launch nuclear weapons, there is a chain of command and checkpoints in the process). That's when things turn south, in a hurry.
To me, this will require a great deal of self-restraint on NATO, avoiding nukes while using our far superior militaries to take his out, while avoiding civilian casualties. Beyond that, we respond basicilly one for one, and hope one gets him, or the more sane General's do.
Personally, I advocate sending in a fleet of transports, Berlin lift-style (maybe 8 or 10) with humanitarian aid, escorted by very visible F-16s and F-15s, with a very quiet group of 4 or 5 F-22s flying high above. Declare a 30 or 50 mile no-fly radius. Be very visible and very transparent about it, especially the humanitarian aid part of it, with reporters on the planes, perhaps. Make it clear that any attacks on the air fleet will result in the immediate destruction of the attacking force, as well as a declaration of war by Russia. This puts that ball in Putin's court, and pushes every button he has, but in a way that the world will recognize who starts what. He probably backs off, and that's that. After that, we increase the aid flights and fill the sky with numerous aid flights, while ignoring his bluster. This makes his air operations very much more difficult.
The Russian game plan seems to have their armies retreating from a NATO "aggressor" and using the weapon on their own soil to minimize the political and military blowback, while dividing the West. If they start the next phase by attacking a humanitarian airlift, and we respond in kind, he doesn't have an option to nuke an advancing army. Then, does he fire on one of more NATO airbases.
Either way, especially if he only hits a few military targets, we hold our fire on the nukes, and go after them with every conventional thing we have. Also, since we seem to have hacked their comm systems, doing everything possible to delete said order and/or shut down his nukes, including GPS and other space assets, would seem to be in order.
Otherwise, I think we stay out, and let Russia sort this out. Frankly, I believe it will, and sooner rather than later. Putin's days are numbered.
Fascinating, if scary, article from 2015: https://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)With the parameters in place, as you specified.
I'm guessing there are plenty of military folks who would love to help out in this manner!
radius777
(3,635 posts)in Ukraine or elsewhere ... or does anything nuclear (including blowing up a power plant). I think those are the lines that would force the West to intervene.
The rest of his 'demands' are shit and nobody listens to them, ie about sanctions being 'war'. Fuck him. The West knows its lines and is prepared to act if crossed.
dem4decades
(11,269 posts)PSPS
(13,579 posts)Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)denbot
(9,898 posts)While Putin might be enamored by his own farts, his military and intelligence structures wont be..
Response to Stinky The Clown (Original post)
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Shanti Shanti Shanti
(12,047 posts)Their current mobile missile launchers can use nuke warheads, in Ukraine, but no need right now.
We saw in Aleppo how their scorched earth tactics work, reduce cities to rubble, grind on, still no chemical attacks, like in Syria.