No one should expect the Russian people to suddenly rise up against Putin now

[Zorro]

Years of state-controlled media, stifled dissent and increases in standards of living have bred an almost impenetrable political complacency.

In late 2011, tens of thousands of Russians took to the streets of Moscow to demand that election results rife with alleged fraud be overturned.

It was the biggest challenge to Vladimir Putin’s authority since he took power a decade earlier, and that it wasn’t immediately crushed gave hope that perhaps change was coming to Russia.

“There has been a phase shift — like water starting to boil — anything is possible from here,” one protestor told me at the time. It was a level of optimism that has not been seen since.

As Russia wages war in Ukraine and deals with crippling economic sanctions that have crushed the ruble, sent prices soaring, and shredded its citizens’ savings, street protests have begun anew, but it is hard to imagine public outcry strong enough to shake the Putin regime.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-years-of-living-in-moscow-i-have-bad-news-no-one-should-expect-the-russian-people-to-suddenly-rise-up-against-putin-now-11646711445

[ZonkerHarris]

1. Yup. They are not built like that, as a society they go along to get along. Have for centuries.

[EndlessWire]

2. The Russians fought like hell in WW2.

It is a mistake to underestimate them. People are the same, everywhere. Give them a sniff of freedom, and you never know.

They are under martial law now. That may prove to be a big mistake. They are probably wondering what's up with that. Their economy is being squeezed, they are probably talking about that. They can't be happy about anything. Sons go off to war, they don't come back. That breeds a lot of resentment.

They have had thousands of protestors arrested. They are NOT being complacent. And, they are not stupid.

[BlueLucy]

4. Some but not enough. The majority support Putin, for now. We can hope.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/world/europe/russia-letter-z-ivan-kuliak.html



https://www.insider.com/decoding-the-z-symbol-russia-ukraine-conflict-2022-3



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/07/russias-terminally-children-line-letter-z-stunt-show-kremlin/

[EndlessWire]

7. That was a young, stupid kid.

Don't worry, he'll be punished.

The Russians had protests in something like 70 cities, with 5,000, 7,000 (?) people arrested. That is as good as any protest we ever did. Well, maybe not as good as the million man march, or the protests with Dr. King. But, they're getting there.

[Straw Man]

6. Their fight in WWII wasn't for freedom, nor was it necessarily out of patriotism.

In that war, Russian troops that retreated on the battlefield were frequently executed. Those that were taken as prisoners of war and later repatriated were often sent to the gulag because they were considered no longer trustworthy. Read Solzhenitsyn, or Max Hastings' Inferno. His thesis in the latter is that no democratic society would have endured the suffering and hardships that the Russians did in places like Stalingrad, but would have capitulated relatively quickly. Simply put, the Russians feared their leaders almost as much as they feared the Germans.

[EndlessWire]

9. I know that Germany did.

But, you can't erase the fight they put up for Leningrad or Moscow.

[ZonkerHarris]

8. They were ordered to fight and treated like chattel on the battlefield. Sounds like they still are

[EndlessWire]

10. Something is definitely wrong.

I think that they were played. But, that doesn't account for their enthusiastic shelling of civilians. They may have been told to say certain things if they are captured. But, I don't know. They aren't fighting the way you would have thought they would.

[uponit7771]

13. Yeah based on natural human will to survive

[fescuerescue]

14. They did. And then put up with communism for 50 years

[dalton99a]

16. +1. They went from being treated like shit by the czars to being treated like shit by the Communists

[Tomconroy]

3. Have economic sanctions ever actually led to the overthrow

of a regime? Maybe they have. I just can't think of one now.

[EndlessWire]

5. I don't know.

This is the first time sanctions have been used in an all out war. But, it is going to hurt.

[uponit7771]

15. Not ones that are this stark, the Russian life will be NO DOUBT different in a month if China...

... doesn't involve itself MORE into the fight.

I say more because they're already buying hordes of Russian FF

[fescuerescue]

17. Yes the Soviet union

Just took 5 decades.

[Happy Hoosier]

18. And it wasn't just a shitty economy.

Afghanistan and Chernobyl played a role too.

[Happy Hoosier]

19. Economic sanctions will not end this war.

Economic sanctions have never worked to achieve the end of an invasion like this.

It won't work here either.

The West is banking on a bloody occupation that will force a peace long term when coupled with economic pain. It also means many, MANY thousands of dead Ukrainians and a devastated country.

That's baked in at this point. The leaders of West have accepted a devastated Ukraine, under the Russian yolk if that happens.

[Tomconroy]

20. Not too late for a No Fly Zone!

[Happy Hoosier]

21. I agree.

Start with a NFZ over Western Ukraine where Russia is not currently operating. Russia would have to CHOOSE to engage, and I think they wouldn't.

[Scrivener7]

11. If it comes, it will be because the oligarchs are unhappy.

[dalton99a]

12. It will be more like North Korea

Putin and his nomenklatura will be in firm control, aided by the oligarchy.

There will be periodic purges for safety and quality assurance purposes