PAUL KRUGMAN Why China Can't Bail Out Putin's Economy March 7, 2022

[applegrove]

PAUL KRUGMAN

Why China Can’t Bail Out Putin’s EconomY

By Paul Krugman, Opinion Columnist at the Washington Post

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/opinion/china-russia-sanctions-economy.html

"SNIP......

First, China, despite being an economic powerhouse, isn’t in a position to supply some things Russia needs, like spare parts for Western-made airplanes and high-end semiconductor chips.

Second, while China itself isn’t joining in the sanctions, it is deeply integrated into the world economy. This means that Chinese banks and other businesses, like Western corporations, may engage in self-sanctioning — that is, they’ll be reluctant to deal with Russia for fear of a backlash from consumers and regulators in more important markets.

Third, China and Russia are very far apart geographically. Yes, they share a border. But most of Russia’s economy is west of the Urals, while most of China’s is near its east coast. Beijing is 3,500 miles from Moscow, and the only practical way to move stuff across that vast expanse is via a handful of train lines that are already overstressed.

.......

Putin may dream of restoring Soviet-era greatness, but China’s economy, which was roughly the same size as Russia’s 30 years ago, is now 10 times as large. For comparison, Germany’s gross domestic product was only two and a half times Italy’s when the original Axis was formed.

......SNIP"

[Hekate]

1. Very nice info. I love Krugman.

[Cha]

2. There's this regarding China & Russia..

Link to tweet

💙💛

[TreasonousBastard]

3. War is very bad for business. (Unless you make tanks and bombs)

[uponit7771]

4. K&R, ... all true, for now. China will NO DOUBT ramp up their giving to Russia after a 2 months

... of seeing Russian economy collapse.

Russia has more sanctions on it than N Korea and is 5 times bigger.

China is going to need to give A LOT to Russia

[Irish_Dem]

6. I agree. I think China will make a PR effort to look neutral.

But they will be giving some help to Putin quietly.

That said, I do think they are rattled and jittery about Putin's invasion. China had planned to take Taiwan, probably off the table for the moment. They are going to have to be patient or come up with another strategy.

[uponit7771]

7. +1, this a plus tactically etc. I think UKR forces might be showing what ww3 is really like; no more

... expensive, heavy and shiny assed equipment in urban places.

I don't think wars of subjugation will be popular for a long time to come after this.

A ... LOT ... of countries can afford to make their own AA/ATGM weapons and keep large mechanized troop movements far away from covered areas.

[Irish_Dem]

8. Yes, China is paying very close attention and will adapt their strategies and plans accordingly.

While Taiwan is much smaller and closer to China, and could be invaded, I don't think China wants the PR debacle or the financial sanction hits.

Not at least until China figures out another way to handle all of it.

[uponit7771]

9. +1, China's attack on Taiwan will be more granular like Russia's attack here in the US imho. They

... will pay off the weak pols and Kompromat via Epsteining the rest.

They'll slow grind Taiwan .... maybe.

I don't think the Taiwanese are going to put up with China's shit knowing what's coming.

Taiwan is 23 million people, Chinese attack wouldn't be a cake walk there.

I pray these wars come to an end

[Irish_Dem]

10. Yes, good point, it will be like Putin's takeover of the US.

Putin owns half the US Congress and US media. He even owned a sitting US president who is now an ex-president speaking out for Putin. A big chunk of the US public thinks Putin is great.

China has a huge military and is probably more competent than Russia. Taiwan is the size of Florida and only 100 miles off the shore of China. Also, Taiwan has significant internal Chinese support, so it would be an invasion and civil war at the same time.

China has a very large military, 2.8 million active duty personnel. Lots of planes and ships, etc.

We also know that the world can easily be cowed by the threat of nuclear war, so we don't know if the US and Japan will help Taiwan if push comes to shove.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. People are mistaking the Russian economy for a healthy economy

Russia has a terrible economy and it's not that large, It's the 12th largest in the world, smaller than South Korea, but larger than Spain. Their GDP per capita is a paltry $11,000.

The world is going to be just fine without Russia participating in the global economy. And China doesn't need them, they just want to take advantage of them right now.