Some thoughts/suggestions from a Russian friend.

[redgreenandblue]

I'm in contact with a Russian friend who made some comments and suggestions regarding the Ukraine war. I'm passing them on on his behalf, since he'd rather not be linked to them in any way (as he stated, he'd "rather not taste the polonium tea" ). Here they are:

- Around 300 billion US dollars of international reserves were confiscated from the Russian government. This money should placed at least under partial control of Russian opposition leaders abroad, specifically members of the Navalny team which fled from persecution. That would give the Russian opposition resources to fight.

- There is currently a horrific police crackdown in Moscow, with armed policemen at every crossroad, social media blocked etc. In order to organize any resistance the opposition at least needs VPN. Unfortunately Apple and Google blocked the app stores, so people cannot install VPN. This is a huge gift to Putin.

- Blocking MasterCard and Visa was dumb, as now people cannot pay for Western VPN services to get around the info blockade (Russian credit cards are not working anymore). On the other hand, payments for natural gas have not been blocked, and prices are skyrocketing. Because of this Gazprom is making bank right now.

- If you want to overthrow the regime with a popular uprising then you should strengthen society and weaken the government. The current measures are doing the opposite. People are blocked from everywhere and the government is making a shit-ton of money from increased gas and oil prices. So what the US and EU should do is unblock the services for ordinary people but block Gazprom, and arm the opposition with confiscated funds.

[Tetrachloride]

1. +++++

[AlexSFCA]

2. EU is not willing to block Gazprom - no alternative to natural gas

The only sanctions that could stop the war is oil and gas embargo are not imposed.

[Lonestarblue]

3. These suggestions make a lot of sense, especially allowing access to VPN.

The Russian people need access to real news, not the propaganda Putin is feeding them. It’s been reported that Putin brought billions of dollars back to Russia in preparation for the war and the sanctions that would follow. He and the government can most likely sustain the sanctions for several weeks or even months. By that time, Ukraine with be a rubble heap with many thousands killed.

Putin seems delusional about what belongs to Russia, so it’s hard to imagine what, if anything, will stop him. Unfortunately, I suspect it will require military intervention by NATO. I hope the West will not roll over and do virtually nothing as they did when Putin razed Grozny in Chechnya in 1999-2000. The weak reaction rewarded Putin and further convinced him that the West would not interfere with his plans. The weak reaction to his annexation of Crimea did the same. Putin’s dream of rebuilding a grand Russian Empire with the power of the old USSR needs to be stopped now because it seems he will not give up his goal.

[KS Toronado]

4. I agree, NATO needs to draw a line in the sand

right at the Ukrainian/Russian border

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. Gazprom might make money on gas, but they are having a hard time delivering oil

Tankers won't take it on due to high insurance for high risks in war zones.
Tankers have difficulty offloading due to refusals by ports and workers.

Generally, people don't pay money for products they are unlikely to receive.

[James48]

6. Somebody needs to offer up a free VPN

Come on CIA, what do we pay you for?

CIA, if you’re listening, come up with a free VPN

[oldsoftie]

8. Is this something Starlink could do?

[stopdiggin]

9. I believe there are

(more than a few) And it's quite doable to 'sideload' any app that you want without access to the 'store.' (at least with Android, can't speak to Apple)

[RockCreek]

7. Excellent suggestions

Different take ftom any I have heard before, and so sensible.
So what do we do with them? I'm sending them to my congressman to start (both pasted, and with a link to this thread).
Where else could they possibly make an impact if heard?

[dalton99a]

10. No weakening of sanctions. Russians already know about the workarounds

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-banks-turn-to-china-to-sidestep-cutoff-from-payments-systems-11646578489

Russian Banks Turn to China to Sidestep Cutoff From Payments Systems
Sberbank, Alfa Bank and Tinkoff Bank said they are working on the possibility of issuing cards powered by China’s UnionPay
By Patricia Kowsmann and Alexander Osipovich
Updated March 6, 2022 2:18 pm ET

Russian banks that have been cut off from global payments networks are turning to China’s state-owned UnionPay system as the country tries to sidestep boycotts by Western businesses for its invasion of Ukraine.

Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. said they are suspending their Russian operations, making it difficult for Russians to buy goods from abroad. The moves by the two companies go beyond sanctions issued against many Russian banks.

Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank by assets, Alfa Bank and Tinkoff Bank said Sunday they were working on the possibility of issuing cards powered by China’s UnionPay. Another Russian lender, Gazprombank, said customers can do cross-border transactions by getting cards that use UnionPay or Japan’s JCB system.

UnionPay is ubiquitous in China and expanded globally as Chinese traveled abroad, often to buy luxury goods. UnionPay cards are accepted in stores in 180 countries and regions, and online in over 200 countries and regions, according to the company’s website.

[uponit7771]

11. +1,

[The Jungle 1]

12. I am sorry but the people of russia will have to suffer.

Stand up and remove puketin and then we can move forward.
Fact is many people in russia support puketin.
69% have a positive view of Putin in January 2022, and 71% approved of the Russian president in February 2022 (before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine). Levada Center poll.
Those are very high approval numbers. Fuck russia and all russian people. Turn their economy OFF. They approve of this war and puketin.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/ This site gives more facts about puketin's historical huge support. He did not do this on his own. He has massive support from russians.

[dalton99a]

13. And money confiscated should go to UKRAINE, not to Russians

Lifting sanctions just because of VPN is dumb.

[The Jungle 1]

14. Yes or send more stingers and javelins

Flood Ukraine with missiles. Charge them nothing.

[dalton99a]

15. +1. They need to destroy the Russian missile batteries

(New York Times)

[Farmer-Rick]

16. Sanctions never work

I know the EU and US are invested in sanctions but they have a bad history of being unsuccessful.

We have had sanctions on Cuba for decades and yet there is Cuba, still putting along despite all the hardships.

Didn't we put sanctions in place when Russia invaded Duma and Crimea? Yet Russia didn't seem to hesitate to invade again.

Sanctions against Venezuela didn't change a damn thing.

There is no proof that sanctions work at all. What works is giving the innocent party money and weapons. Also sending troops in works to some extent.

This idea that Shorty Putin will stop attacking because you take away his Visa card is rediculus. Hurting the Russian people so they turn on Putin will only backfire. What ends up happening is the people start to resent the countries placing sanctions on them and feel like foreigners are trying to decide their leadership for them. This then leads to increasing the popularity of their current leaders.

Sanctions don't work, so why are the EU and US so invested in it?

[Beastly Boy]

17. The opposition in Russia is weak and ineffective.

Russian people largely share Putin's grandiose delusions of the glorious imperial Russia that can take on the democratic Europe on equal terms. The thousands of people being arrested in Moscow are not demonstrating for democracy, they are demonstrating against the war. Russia's history of democratic government is short, unlike its centuries old tradition of absolute despotism. The West appeals to the Russian people not because of its democracy, but because of its prosperity, and they generally don't quite get the critical connection between the two.

To topple Putin's regime, which will take more than just getting rid of Putin, the West, and Ukraine in particular, are doing exactly what they need to do: isolate the regime culturally and especially economically, and make sure that Putin's ambitions of making Russia a superpower again fail miserably and end with his humiliation. These, and not appeals for democratic principles, are the two most effective means to affect the sentiment of large portions of the Russian people. Once this is accomplished, the Russian people will be persuasively reminded of the connections between autocracy and misery versus democracy and prosperity. Only then the political reformation has a decent chance of succeeding in Russia.

However strongly the entire concept of a democratic opposition to Putin's regime appeals to me, I am skeptical of their effectiveness. The system is heavily rigged against them. Only when the system begins to crumble under the weight of evident and demonstrable failures to achieve Putin's delusional ambitions, does the opposition have a chance to affect change.

[dalton99a]

18. +1. The pariah status and financial sanctions will have a wide impact

[redgreenandblue]

19. Thanks for all the replies and recs.