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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat actually is happening militarily in Ukraine? Good piece from Josh Marshall
I ALLUDED TO THIS in my earlier post on my list of military analysts. Were seeing lots of imagery of downed plans, shattered tanks, captured tanks, often with detailed information about where and how they were destroyed. But that flood of information often leaves us even if we dont know it unclear on the big picture. This thread notes that many of us are getting an incomplete view of the situation in Ukraine because Ukraines (and its supporters) social media efforts have been so effective. The issue here isnt deception or misinformation, though theres certainly some of that. Its that the supporters of Ukraine are doing a very effective job surfacing imagery every time the Ukrainian army scores a tactical victory destroying a tank, shooting down a plane. And were seeing much less of the fact that Russia is continuing to make progress on the ground just slowly. Maybe very slowly. But they are making progress.
As the thread I noted puts it, the view of the war that we are getting from expertly curated UKR IO is giving a lot of folks an impression of not only RUS incompetence but also UKR dominance. The accounts judgment is that if Russia is willing to endure the battlefield casualties and the full weight of the economic sanctions they can probably eventually conquer Ukraine. Whether thats an accurate prediction is way above my pay grade. Its hard to get this balance just right. I think the point is that the Ukrainian military is wildly over-performing and the Russian military is beset by a level of logistics breakdown that appears to be stunning to the most knowledgable people. But dont go from the mix of over-performance and under-performance to the idea that Ukraine is winning in purely military terms or that Russia cant slog it out.
(snip)
But one thing that comes up again and again in war reportage out of Ukraine are individuals and regions that were generally more aligned toward Russia doing an about face toward a Ukrainian nationalism that is deeply anti-Russian and generally looking to Europe for protection. Some of this is likely a version of a rally-around-the-flag effect. And while bombs are falling theres probably little public room for public expressions of anything but antipathy toward Russia. But its hard to believe the ferocity and intensity of this onslaught wont be a defining experience for a generation of Ukrainians. War on your own territory will do that.
It is another example of something you see in every dimension of this. As outsiders to Great Russian nationalism its hard for Americans to evaluate the importance that Vladimir Putin and many other Russians attach to reuniting Ukraine with Russia. But even though Russia may still win this war, its hard to imagine a greater strategic catastrophe either economically or militarily. If Russia conquers Ukraine it seems likely to be a restive and hostile population that will be hard to control or hold. Fighting a domestic insurrection will only further drive Ukraine into eventual economic union and military alliance with the rest of Europe. The NordStream 2 gas pipeline project that seemed like an inevitable has already be ditched and the company behind it has filed for bankruptcy. Its not impossible to imagine a Russian climbdown or withdrawal that would include removing many of the sanctions that are crippling the Russian economy. But its difficult to imagine a return of the pipeline project any time soon or maybe ever. Meanwhile, far from resetting or upending the post-Cold War security regime in Europe, Putin has put it on steroids. The key NATO member states are pledging dramatic increases in military spending and falling over themselves to reinforce NATOs eastern frontier. The future that is coming into view is pretty dark for everyone. But its a nightmare scenario for Russia.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-ukraine-miscellany
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What actually is happening militarily in Ukraine? Good piece from Josh Marshall (Original Post)
LymphocyteLover
Mar 2022
OP
Unnn, he's leaving out eastern and southern UKR. That ... IS ... more conventional than north and
uponit7771
Mar 2022
#3
Thanks. I heard Russia was bringing in Chechen and Syrian fighters to do the urban fighting
LymphocyteLover
Mar 2022
#4
secondwind
(16,903 posts)1. Thanks for posting this, I enjoyed reading it. Very much.
LymphocyteLover
(5,643 posts)2. welcome! Some interesting insights there I thought
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)3. Unnn, he's leaving out eastern and southern UKR. That ... IS ... more conventional than north and
... UKR forces are doing pretty good relatively.
They're getting ran over by pure numbers and terrorism some times but then they take areas back in counter attacks cause its hard for RU forces to dismount.
And if they don't dismount they're getting hit by ATGM and falling back.
Bottom line, RA is HORRID at urban warfare ... just HORRID and its showing
LymphocyteLover
(5,643 posts)4. Thanks. I heard Russia was bringing in Chechen and Syrian fighters to do the urban fighting
but honestly I can't imagine mercenaries are going to be super eager to go in against Ukrainians fighting for their land.