If Russia has lost 9 commanders then 10,000 dead Russian troops is probably pretty accurate

[Quixote1818]

If it was only 500 killed like Russia is saying, then 9 commanders dying would be incredibly high.


Thoughts?

[everyonematters]

1. It's a good strategy to go after them,

since you have a bunch of conscripts with no combat experience waiting to be told what to do.

[Texaswitchy]

2. All the officers.

The cannon fodder will not know what to do.

[onecaliberal]

3. The news of funerals will not allow this to be swept under the carpet.

[Igel]

7. Save that 7 or so years ago

the names and number of killed soldiers were made, by law, a state secret.

The dead returning from "vacation" in the Donbas were provoking protests, so that was stopped.

[nycbos]

4. Is this a reputable source.

[madville]

5. Current US estimates are 2,000-4,000 Russian troops

Still a significant number but 10,000+ as Ukraine is claiming is very unlikely at this point.

[Hugin]

6. Unless their forces were already so small due to corruption...

The brass was all that was left.

A more likely scenario.

[Talitha]

8. Didn't I hear something about Russia bringing in mobile crematoriums?

Cheaper than sending the bodies home, I guess.

[jmowreader]

9. I found seven of the nine

Before we start: the Russian general officer ranks are Major General (1 star), Lieutenant General (2 star), Colonel General (3 star) and Army General (4 star).

1. Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky
Sukhovetsky was Deputy Commander, 41st Army. Sukhovetsky came into the Army as a paratrooper. He has commanded a division, and had served in his last position since October 2021. He's believed to be one of the best generals the Russians had.

2. Major General Vitaly Gerasimov
Gerasimov was Chief of Staff, 41st Army. He was a tank officer. He commanded two different motorized rifle regiments as a colonel, which is a little strange because that's normally a job for an infantry officer.

3. Magomed Tushayev
Aside from "the scum of the earth" or "thug" I can't figure out what this man is. Some sources claim he's a general. Tushayev was a Chechen Navy officer sent to run Putin's "Chechen Kill Squad." Many of you may remember the anti-gay purges in Chechnya a few years back. Tushayev was leading them. I've seen his picture. He looks like a Disney villain. The British newspaper The Express describes him as a warlord. Anyway, he's dead and the world is better for it.

4. Colonel Yuri Agarkov
Agarkov was commander of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. (A Russian regiment is roughly equivalent to an American brigade. It can't fight without support troops like artillery and supply.) Agarkov started out life as a paratrooper.

5. Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky
Zizevsky, another paratrooper, was commander of 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment.

6. Lieutenant Colonel Dmitri Safronov
Safronov commanded the 874th Naval Infantry Battalion of the 61st Independent Naval Infantry Brigade. (A Russian brigade is like an American brigade combat team or a small division. It has the assets it needs to take the fight to the enemy without attaching a lot of outside units to it.) The 61st is part of the Northern Fleet, which makes me wonder: why did Putin pull these guys out of Murmansk when the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is in Sevastopol, which is within walking distance of Ukraine?

7. Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov
Colonel Glebov was deputy commander of the 11th Independent Airborne Assault Brigade.

You asked for thoughts. Mine follow. Let's drop Tushayev out of the mix for just a second. They tasked this asshole to lead a small unit whose job was to run all over the Ukrainian countryside killing all the government officials they could find. (Think a real-life version of Tarantino's Lt. Aldo Raine and the Basterds, minus the swastika-carving and scalping, and you're on the right track.) Sukhovetsky and Gerasimov are the only two high-ranking officers in the batch, and neither was serving as a commanding general. Glebov wasn't a commanding officer. So...what we're ultimately looking at is one homicidal maniac, two brigade commanders, one battalion commander and three staff weenies. Plus the two I can't find, who could be at any level of command.

We have three KIA numbers floating around. The Ukrainians are claiming 12,000 Russian troops have been killed. The Russians are claiming 500, and the US intelligence community is estimating between 4000 and 5000 fatalities. The Ukrainians are very probably overstating their numbers by a factor of at least two. Whether they're overstating their numbers as a psychological operations tool (probable) or the units are calling in numbers, their higher headquarters elements are adding together the body counts before transmission to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, and MoD is adding the raw numbers to the totals (the US Army got caught doing that in Vietnam) is an open question, but that's irrelevant at this juncture. We know the Russian numbers are bullshit; they've lost about half that many just in the shootdowns of the two IL-76 jump planes. I feel comfortable that 4500 Russian KIAs is a supportable number.

[Kaleva]

10. +1