After Ukraine, Europe wonders who's next Russian target

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — For some European countries watching Russia's brutal war in Ukraine, there are fears that they could be next.

Western officials say the most vulnerable could be those who aren't members of NATO or the European Union, and thus alone and unprotected — including Ukraine’s neighbor Moldova and Russia's neighbor Georgia, both of them formerly part of the Soviet Union — along with the Balkan states of Bosnia and Kosovo.

But analysts warn that even NATO members could be at risk, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on Russia's doorstep, as well as Montenegro, either from Moscow's direct military intervention or attempts at political destabilization.

Russian President Vladimir Putin "has said right from the start that this is not only about Ukraine,'' said Michal Baranowski, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw office.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/after-ukraine-europe-wonders-whos-next-russian-target/ar-AAUS2cO

I don't know if they want to mess with Montenegro. That was the only part of the former Yugoslavia that the Ottoman Turks were never able to conquer.

[Chainfire]

1. Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, and after digesting them, Finland.

Yea, I know, that would bring a NATO declaration of war. Maybe and maybe not. Putin will still have the Nuclear sword to wave and it will be as deadly then as it is today. Look to history.

England and France were obligated to go to war over the invasion of Poland in '39 too, they declared war and then "fought" a Sitzkrieg with bombers dropping leaflets instead of bombs and taking pot-shots across the border, so as to not piss Hitler off. They were still looking for a way out without fighting. It wasn't a world war until Hitler attacked France, in his own good time and under his own terms, that the war began in earnest.

[Gore1FL]

2. It likely doesn't matter what targets they have. They don't have the darts left to throw. nt

[Chainfire]

4. Why would you think that.

The only numbers I know are what circulate on the web. If you have better sources, I won't quibble over them. What I find in my meager research is that they indicate an active Russian military of around 900,000 troops, with two million, at least partially trained, reserves. It is estimated that around 150,000 troops are currently involved in the Ukraine war, so roughly 25% of the total active service. People have seen that Putin has sent in 90+percent of the troops involved in the operations and appear to think that that is 90+ percent of his army, that is just bad math. We also know that some of the troops currently employed by the Russians are the "B" team with outdated equipment. Of course that doesn't mean that the rest of his troops are any better, but there are a lot of them, and a lot of cannon fodder to replace them when they fall.

Putin still has darts to throw at smaller nations, he has a great advantage in geography, and he still has the big dart that is keeping NATO at Bay. If fighting a conventional war, Russia would be badly outgunned by NATO, in terms of both quantity and quality, but Putin isn't going to offer up that kind of battle. Since we are not dealing with some superior army, but we are dealing with nuclear blackmail our conventional military prowess is virtually useless. This day of extortions has been coming since Hiroshima and we should have addressed it sooner. If we survive this intact, is should become a worldwide priority.

I know that most of us would like to see NATO go in with guns blazing, like a 1800s cavalry charge, or a D-day invasion, and free the struggling Ukrainians, but that is just not the world that we live in today. We are having to face down a madman with a functional (we assume) nuclear arsenal that has the ability to destroy the world...The key to that last sentence is MADMAN! This is partly our fault for sweeping out thoughts of nuclear war under the table for the last 40 years. The Ukrainians are paying the price.

All I can say is that I am so glad that we have the right man in the White House today, try to trust his decisions.

[Gore1FL]

5. They are moving garbage equipment into Ukraine at this time.

They don't have the trucks to fuel what they have in Ukraine that hasn't already been abandoned, destroyed, or captured.

Unless the plan is state-suicide, they don't open a second front, especially against a large, better-equipped force than the one they are losing to presently.

[Chainfire]

9. I certainly would not suggest that they would open a second front until this one is resolved, and

I don't think that that is what the NATO countries are concerned about either. We can not, without evidence assume that the 75% of Putin's military, that is not involved in the current war, are garbage troops with garbage equipment, and as far as that goes, it doesn't matter as long as the nuclear threat from Putin is effective.


This is just a thought exercise, and I don't see it happening, but just for the sakes of kicks and giggles, lets assume that Putin goes completely nuts and rolled another 25% of his second rate troops into Latvia or Estonia tomorrow morning, NATO invokes article 5 and starts attacks on Russians in Ukraine, Estonia and their lines of communications inside Russia?

What do you think would happen in the following days and weeks? Lets say that NATO is kicking serious Russian butt, CNN is showing round the clock videos of Russian convoys being devoured by Hellfire missiles, we see Russian bridges being blown and jets shot down. How would you envision the series of events developing? What is an optimistic vision of the next few weeks?

Our leaders play these kind of thought games too, and that is a reason NATO planes are still on the ground.

[Gore1FL]

10. I envision NATO not entering a war until it is attacked. I don't envision that attack coming.

The Russians are on day 15 of what they thought would take less than 5. They can resupply. They are losing leadership. Much of their equipment is bogged down, destroyed, abandoned, or captured. The Russian economy is in tatters. The situation is only getting worse. Protesters are in the streets.

Putin is a lot of things, but I can't see him eager to do something hard with his diminished forces all while trying to keep down, Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, and Russia, itself.

I am glad NATO is there to make this point, to be sure. I don't see military action required by the alliance any time in the near future.

[Chainfire]

12. My questions were predicated on the following statement from the original post:

But analysts warn that even NATO members could be at risk, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on Russia's doorstep, as well as Montenegro, either from Moscow's direct military intervention or attempts at political destabilization.

If you don't want to respond, to the questions that I posed that is fine. I know that people don't want to think about them.

[Gore1FL]

18. You directed questions at me and I answered them when possible.

Some were predicated on events that I deem unlikely for reasons already stated. I don't see Russia attacking NATO. I don't see NATO pre-emptively attack Russia, either. Russia is in too precarious of a position right now to flex and NATO is not looking for WWIII.

I don't know what you are looking for other than an agreement to be fearful of an attack that I'd bet isn't coming.

[Chainfire]

20. I contend that that is a flaw in a lot of people's thinking.

Making plans on what you think that the enemy will do, or what you think is smart for the enemy to do. That was Eisenhower's big error that led to America's most bloody battle of WWII in Dec. of '44. Military wisdom suggest that you prepare for what the enemy is capable of doing, not what you bet he will do, and Putin is currently using only 25% of his active duty troops in Ukraine. he has plenty of troops to expand his war into other arenas.

However, was a really good plumber, and would make for a very lousy general. So I am glad that people who matter are exploring the number of moves Putin could make.

My real point was that, even on this liberal forum, there are people who are screaming for NATO to become more involved in the war. We keep hearing calls for a NATO no fly zone over Ukraine. I would like for them to think about what that would lead to if they got their wish. Everyone must remember that our President and the other free world leaders are dealing with a situation involving a crazy man who may be in bad health and at the end of his life, has the weapons bring about the end of civilization. Putin may think that he has nothing to lose.

[Gore1FL]

21. I think we are largely on the same side here.

I am not calling for war. I am not saying we shouldn't prepare for a defense. I don't see this escalating because of NATO.
Putin sent his decent equipment into Ukraine but cannot support those forces logistically without rail. The last thing he needs to do is expand the war, himself.

My prediction is that Ukraine is going to be Putin's full focus; he wants to keep the west on it's heels. I don't know if he has enough time or focus to be successful.

He may very well be suicidal and willing to start a nuclear exchange. I have to wonder if his military or intelligence officers would simply oblige him with the "suicidal" part and save themselves.

[roamer65]

3. Russia's next target is the shitter.

These sanctions are biting hard.

We should start sanctioning basic items as well.

Food, medicine, etc.

The goal should be regime change, not just withdrawal from Ukraine.

[uponit7771]

11. THIS !!!! ☝🏾☝🏾☝🏾

[sarcasmo]

6. Moldova then Poland

[OnDoutside]

13. Yes Moldova would be highly likely.

[Bettie]

7. I'm starting to think Vlad is betting on

NATO folding the second he says "Nukes" and letting him take whatever he wants.

It would serve his purpose of destroying NATO.

[patphil]

8. Putin is seriously deluded. He hasn't even got Ukraine, and he wants more?

It would take decades long occupation by a hundred of thousand of soldiers to hold Ukraine. Russia's military will be bled dry trying to hold onto a nation that refuses to accept his control.
Don't they remember Afghanistan?
And all this is assuming he could actually take Ukraine over militarily. That's becoming more and more doubtful each passing day.
The other former members of the Soviet Union will be just as difficult to conquer and maintain control over. They will have seen what happened to Ukraine.

The guy is dragging Russia down this deep, dark path, and he's becoming more of a liability to the military and the oligarchs each day.
Although Putin is popular, he's not irreplaceable. His ego will be his downfall.
Eventually something's gotta give.

[WarGamer]

14. I believe the Ukraine invasion has made is LESS likely that Russia will attack anyone else.

Their performance has been abysmal.

They haven't even performed like a "first world" army.

More casualties than the US suffered in YEARS of Iraq?

No. When they finally limp back home, they're not attacking anyone.

[uponit7771]

15. +1, ... same with China / Taiwan, they see the large, expensive, hard to train on and shiny crap

... doesn't work in a well armed, highly motivated and educated population.

I don't see any democracy going the way of Iraq ... hell, Iraq was a shit show for us in the end.

Ukraine is showing the world WWIII in tactics and it doesn't include the MICs most expensive WWII based toys.

[WarGamer]

16. that's probably right...

The difference is...

China can crater the WORLD economy.

Russia can't.

China hits Taiwan, US sanctions and China says "We're cashing in our US debt investments"...

It'd make the great depression look mild.

[uponit7771]

17. ... sooooo true but they'd get hit too, its MAD economically.

[Strelnikov_]

19. Russia is no longer a conventional threat. They cannot project power.

The goal now should be to turn this off by giving Russia whatever cover it needs to claim its goals were achieved.

Once Russia has withdrawn, provide aid to Ukraine to rebuild, and flood it with defensive weaponry.

Partial sanctions remain on Russia to prevent it 'rebuilding' its military.

Wait for the regime to fall, then bring them into the fold, and not blow it like the 90's.

[Chainfire]

22. But. even though they may have a third rate army, they still have the West in Check in Ukraine

because they are still a nuclear power and they have a possibly crazy man at the wheel! That is why NATO is walking lightly.

You only need a first class military if you are going up against a first class military. Putin isn't going to set up a fixed piece battle like Kursk where he fights the combined arms of Europe and the US. (his troops would be slaughtered) However, he can still, through his advantage in geography, project power in the directions of their less well armed neighbors even with poor material, poor troops and poor leadership.

A win over Putin comes when the misery of his people are the cause of him being removed from power, and probably being separated from his life. That is why our current strategy will win with a minimum cost of human lives. We just have to trust our own Uncle Joe.

[Strelnikov_]

23. I agree.

Meanwhile, the west needs to be flooding these countries with defensive armament, particularly crew served anti-armor and anti-aircraft.

All while being careful not to give an impression of increasing offensive capabilities near the border. Russia is paranoid about being invaded after WWI and WWII. We don't want to feed the paranoia. With the sanctions in place, time is on the west's side. At a minimum, some oligarchs heads are going to roll over the looting of their defense budget.

Again, the main thing right now is to stop the fighting, let the Russians limp back home with some sort of 'victory' they can claim.

Because, they can still level the cities (probably).

[WarGamer]

24. logical...

[Brainfodder]

25. I'm going with PUTIN himself, since they will be so FUBARED by then?