When Putler tries to build his land bridge to Kaliningrad, will he go through Poland or Lithuania?

[Stinky The Clown]

Or will he take a slice of each?

He only needs 30 or 40 miles of highway to connect them. Given the sanctions, that little bit of Russia is currently cut off.

Will he test NATO?

[relayerbob]

1. I suspect either way, it'll be a road through Hell

We should give Ukraine Kaliningrad as a war reparation

[Haggis 4 Breakfast]

2. Make no mistake

Putin WANTS the Baltic States - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - back under his control. He has said many times that he does not consider them independent and that the votes taken by the many of the former Soviet Bloc countries to declare their sovereignty to be illegal and illegitimate.

He wants that submarine base on the Adriatic.

[BGBD]

3. He can want in one hand and shit in the other

He'll lose Moscow before he takes an inch of any NATO member.

[Haggis 4 Breakfast]

6. I pray you're right.

But I keep wondering - what is the line in the sand that NATO will not allow to be crossed ?

Ukrainian cities are being blitzed every night. Millions of citizens fleeing because nothing is left standing. putin is not honoring humanitarian corridors. He's shelling churches (Are you listening, evangelicals ?), hospitals, residential areas and murdering civilians.

I keep asking myself, how many dead Ukrainians does NATO need to see before they act ?

I think putin has lost sight. If no one will stand up to him in his inner circle (and certainly NOT the Duma), he will continue to think he is prevailing. I don't see him tolerating the loss of face if this goes badly for him. He HAS short range nukes. Will he use them ? He has put that out there.

[BGBD]

9. It's very clear

The red line is an attack on a NATO country.

What Russia is doing in Ukraine is terrible, but it's entirely like what they did in Syria and Georgia.

The alliance is stronger than ever right now. Puten. In doesn't have the army to fight NATO and if he uses a nuke he won't survive.

[Strelnikov_]

4. No. Further, with what army?

The one in Ukraine? The one Russia builds from what remains of their army after Ukraine, under sanctions?

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

5. What? His landbridge is through the Southern ports to Odessa, he'd cut off Ukraine from the sea

That is what the war in Ukraine is about, western news has no idea

[Stinky The Clown]

7. Uh . . . . wholly different land bridge

https://www.businessinsider.com/poland-worried-over-ukraine-kaliningrad-2014-3

[Metaphorical]

8. Agreed

Of course, the link to Odesa opens into the Black Sea, which means that they HAVE to go through Istanbul in order to make it into the Mediterranean. Right now, the Russian Black Sea fleet is contained in the port of Sevastopol. If those ships are destroyed, Russia effectively loses control of both Ukraine and quite possibly Crimea, as there will be no reinforcements otherwise (I have to assume that Turkey has closed the Istanbul channel to Russian ships from the Mediterranean side).

The unfortunate thing is that the Russian Navy has in general been better funded than the Army, and it is hard to defend against naval bombardment.

[doc03]

10. He is still stuck in traffic getting to Kiev

[Wingus Dingus]

11. He's trying to regroup from current ass-kicking in Ukraine. He's not going to be doing

anything else for a while. He's also not going to take on NATO, because his military--whatever emerges from the clusterfuck unfolding now--is not going to be able to prevail against superior NATO and especially US forces. Are we all watching a different war in Ukraine? Why do people keep insisting he's going to power through another country right after this? How the hell is THAT going to happen? Maybe if he's still alive, or his successor is equally shitty, in 6 or 8 years he might take a run at Moldova, if it's not in NATO. But we don't have to worry about that yet.