How The War In Ukraine Might Change Putin's Popularity Among Russians
It’s hard to fathom what’s happening in Ukraine right now. Schools being bombed. Civilians forming militias and making molotov cocktails. Millions of people displaced, and an unknown number of deaths. But perhaps equally difficult to fathom is the fact that, as recently as last month, the man behind this war, Russian president Vladimir Putin, was enjoying his highest approval ratings in nearly four years.
In February, Putin had a 71 percent approval rating and a 27 percent disapproval rating among the Russian public, the highest it’s been since May 2018 (though it’s never dipped below 59 percent according to the Levada-Center).
On the one hand, it’s natural to question the accuracy of public opinion polling under an authoritarian regime, but there are actually a number of reasons to believe those approval ratings represent genuine Russian sentiment. For one, the polling comes from the Levada-Center, a respected, independent pollster. And if you’re suspicious that Russians aren’t being totally honest about their feelings with pollsters due to fear of retribution, research to control for this phenomenon has found this isn’t the case — the polls are capturing true Russian opinions on Putin. Sure, there is likely some bias, but the bottom line is that Putin’s popularity at home is real.
Other recent polling suggests that many Russians view the war in Ukraine differently from those in the West. A poll conducted in Russia last week by a group of independent survey research organizations (who have remained anonymous in order to avoid backlash from the Kremlin), found that about 58 percent of Russians approve of the invasion of Ukraine, while 23 percent oppose it.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-change-putins-popularity-among-russians/
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