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Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 04:45 PM Mar 2022

NATO must go to war against Putin now, with the US and Biden...

Last edited Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:02 PM - Edit history (2)

…or they will surely have to go to war with Putin later, likely without the US if Trump is reinstalled as president.

Rather than hesitating out of fear that Putin will use nukes, NATO must vigorously defend Ukraine, in Ukraine, and force the question to Putin’s inner circle: “am I willing to sacrifice my life and the lives of my loved ones for Vladimir Putin?”

It’s an awful dilemma, and a risky bet, wagering that the Moscow elite will remove Putin rather than risk Armageddon, but if the west doesn’t take the bet now, they will be forced to take it later, on Putin’s terms.

NATO could enter Ukraine on Humanitarian terms, or because the risk to the nuclear power plants endangers all of Europe. Even if Putin launched a single strategic nuclear strike at Ukraine, the tide would turn against him quickly both in Russia and around the world.

The Window of opportunity is narrowing; the sanctions are gradually taking effect (SWIFT ban didn’t fully kick in until today), but Putin’s shifting tactics of scorched earth could mean that Kyiv, and the Zelenskyy government, don’t have much time left.

Clarifying note: I am not proposing NATO join the war to defend Ukraine immediately, today. I am suggesting that the window to do so is narrowing rapidly with Putin’s shift in tactics from seizing control of the country to reducing it to rubble. While it would be nice to wait and let the sanctions have their impact, I’m not sure sanctions will trigger an overthrow of Putin (the only way this war ends) before Ukraine is completely destroyed by missiles and bombs.

A much more articulate, detailed argument for this position can be found here:

https://www.greatpower.us/p/there-is-no-way-back-part-1?s=w

161 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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NATO must go to war against Putin now, with the US and Biden... (Original Post) Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 OP
still nope. WarGamer Mar 2022 #1
So, who is the author of the stuff at that poorly designed website? MineralMan Mar 2022 #2
Thanks for linking to another poorly 48656c6c6f20 Mar 2022 #36
You're welcome. MineralMan Mar 2022 #37
Probably true. ColinC Mar 2022 #3
What is "Berlin airlift style"? dumbcat Mar 2022 #5
Russia won't oppose it. ColinC Mar 2022 #12
Right! dumbcat Mar 2022 #14
There just needs to be an immediate consequence for them to follow through. Otherwise they will keep ColinC Mar 2022 #15
No Russia won't oppose it. They want as many Ukrainians to leaves as possible. They then intend PortTack Mar 2022 #24
The Berlin airlift was to drop humanitarian supplies, not fight a war. Nt Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #7
Same thing. ColinC Mar 2022 #13
So are we seriously discussing nuclear warfare? That's a real loser for mankind. hadEnuf Mar 2022 #4
Not necessarily- NATO could defend Ukraine effectively without using nukes Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #6
Exactly pbmus Mar 2022 #11
There are a multitude of other scenarios that may Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #19
If NATO doesn't get into a war against Putin now, they are destined to after Ukraine falls Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #83
In your opinion Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #87
There is no decision if Putin attacks a NATO country. That invokes Article 5. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #34
Well, there is those pesky fact things, but Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #90
Not necessarily? So...maybe? Iggo Mar 2022 #58
No, the current worry is that all bets are off if NATO steps in. hadEnuf Mar 2022 #157
If the Ukraine war ends with Putin still in power, NATO will still have to fight him eventually. Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #159
Sorry but no. SoonerPride Mar 2022 #8
We have to stand up to the bully... pbmus Mar 2022 #9
We have been Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #20
When the bully is hitting you... pbmus Mar 2022 #30
You need to contact Biden right away sarisataka Mar 2022 #38
+1000 Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #40
Sorry but we are in WW3... pbmus Mar 2022 #44
That's why you need to reach out sarisataka Mar 2022 #52
He has too many Neville's around him... pbmus Mar 2022 #54
Ah! Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #39
The warhead on the stingers and javelins are filled with more than words. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #43
Obviously, Not hard enough... pbmus Mar 2022 #60
How is that obvious? Gore1FL Mar 2022 #62
I am going to say it again....NATO NEEDS TO DO MORE pbmus Mar 2022 #67
What and why? Gore1FL Mar 2022 #69
Time is a construct used by the living. pbmus Mar 2022 #74
Keep using that construct. Living sounds like a good side effect. nt Gore1FL Mar 2022 #75
Tell that to the thousands that have died in putties war. pbmus Mar 2022 #77
I am sorry for their deaths. Explain to me how ratchetting up the body count helps them. nt Gore1FL Mar 2022 #80
Bullies do not stop with words. pbmus Mar 2022 #82
That's why we are providing Ukraine with all of those things previously mentioned. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #89
Here's a suggestion, MarineCombatEngineer Mar 2022 #131
When are you heading over? BlackSkimmer Mar 2022 #88
My family has already fought and died on that continent and pbmus Mar 2022 #92
Mine did too. BlackSkimmer Mar 2022 #97
Except that the bully is not hitting me Polybius Mar 2022 #128
This isn't grade school! Nt USALiberal Mar 2022 #135
ok lol nt Torchlight Mar 2022 #148
My father told me to never gamble what you can't afford to lose. Chainfire Mar 2022 #10
We can't afford to lose democracy Deuxcents Mar 2022 #26
We are helping in a lot of ways. It's successful so far. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #45
How are we going to lose anything to Russia, unless they launch nukes? Strelnikov_ Mar 2022 #49
Except Mussolini didn't have nukes. Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #86
Nothing to work with here n/t Strelnikov_ Mar 2022 #146
Your title is the key. We have a good leadership team making calculated decistions on how to go Chainfire Mar 2022 #124
There are two periods were thermonulear war may break out as a result of this war Strelnikov_ Mar 2022 #147
Good succinct way of putting it n/t Strelnikov_ Mar 2022 #41
NO Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #16
I agree rockfordfile Mar 2022 #18
100% agree. nt MarineCombatEngineer Mar 2022 #132
Have you told your family you decided that they are worth sacrificing? Kaleva Mar 2022 #17
That is a terrible thing to say to a fellow DUer. Stinky The Clown Mar 2022 #22
I asked a question. Aren't you curious? Kaleva Mar 2022 #28
That is also assuming the use of nukes... pbmus Mar 2022 #47
It's like playing Russian Roulette. Kaleva Mar 2022 #73
So this is exactly what the murderer puttie wants you to think pbmus Mar 2022 #79
In the end, it doesn't matter what I think Kaleva Mar 2022 #109
It's reality. The nuclear risk is not a matter of opinion. hadEnuf Mar 2022 #160
It is a very valid question Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #42
You're assuming I'm advocating for nuclear war, or that Putin will definitely respond with nukes Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #98
I didn't say it was a forgone conclusion Kaleva Mar 2022 #105
On one point I COMPLETELY agree with you. If Biden is not reelected, we are likely to be out of NATO Stinky The Clown Mar 2022 #21
Well if we're out of NATO and a war breaks out, won't that mean we won't be involved in it? Polybius Mar 2022 #130
So first of all, this scenario sees this war continuing tavernier Mar 2022 #23
+1000 PortTack Mar 2022 #25
The mention of the Big Con in the discussion is valid pbmus Mar 2022 #48
Step out your front door and look around your neighborhood sarisataka Mar 2022 #27
Why "surely" is this an eventuality, and why is time on Putin's side? Gore1FL Mar 2022 #29
Death and destruction is the major reasons you go to war... pbmus Mar 2022 #61
And avoiding those things if at all possible is why you don't jump to do so. nt Gore1FL Mar 2022 #63
That ship sailed on February 24th...2022 pbmus Mar 2022 #65
NATO didn't go to war on Feb 24, 2022. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #71
Nope. nt BlackSkimmer Mar 2022 #31
No way. Elessar Zappa Mar 2022 #32
Completely insane. David__77 Mar 2022 #33
I posted this in another thread but it seems to fit better here. Sorry. Samrob Mar 2022 #35
Did Bosnia have nukes? Iggo Mar 2022 #59
Nope, let Germany, Italy and France send in ground troops first if the EU wants a war Shanti Shanti Shanti Mar 2022 #46
Neville rises again.. pbmus Mar 2022 #50
Neville Chamberlain took the only course available to him at the time Strelnikov_ Mar 2022 #57
Words and more words while real people died and are dying today... pbmus Mar 2022 #64
The points you make, against 'appeasement' and whatnot, would be arguable, even meritorious.... DemocraticPatriot Mar 2022 #136
And rearm they did, in record time. Chamberlain did the right thing. Mariana Mar 2022 #81
Full stop. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #68
History repeats itself ... pbmus Mar 2022 #70
Explain how the two are similar. Explain it to me like I am six. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #72
If you are so terribly interested in this war and getting involved Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #96
Here is the contact info for the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, DC. Mariana Mar 2022 #107
Thanks, but I'm not the one that needs it. Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #113
I apologize, I didn't mean it for you. Mariana Mar 2022 #117
Thanks! Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #118
Best way to prevent WWIII, is not to start WWIII, "EU won't sanction Russian gas and oil" Shanti Shanti Shanti Mar 2022 #101
that's like taking a hand grenade... pulling the pin and dropping it at your feet. WarGamer Mar 2022 #51
Molly McKew is a very problematic warmonger and an ex RW American Enterprise Institute collaborator Celerity Mar 2022 #93
thanks for all the info, Celerity! WarGamer Mar 2022 #127
and yet I am sure her ill-informed incendiary claptrap will continue to be put up simply Celerity Mar 2022 #139
Thanks for your research! MineralMan Mar 2022 #150
YW, MM Celerity Mar 2022 #151
No, no and no JCMach1 Mar 2022 #53
Sir! Yes, sir! Iggo Mar 2022 #55
This message was self-deleted by its author Iggo Mar 2022 #56
Russia would be crushed in a conventional war right now NickB79 Mar 2022 #66
Which exactly is why he would escalate to tactical nukes if NATO stepped in Bucky Mar 2022 #78
Oh so your suggestion is to let him roll over Ukraine and then what...? pbmus Mar 2022 #85
I don't think that is anyone's suggestion. It's disingenuous for you to frame it that way. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #94
About As Disingenuous Than Claiming... ruet Mar 2022 #99
It would start WWIII Gore1FL Mar 2022 #112
I fully support Biden's handling of this. Bucky Mar 2022 #95
If you haven't noticed, he's NOT rolling over Ukraine NickB79 Mar 2022 #103
Jesus Christ, it is a breath of fresh air to see posts like yours, Buckys and others Strelnikov_ Mar 2022 #143
Putin is not "rolling over Ukraine"... DemocraticPatriot Mar 2022 #129
Grab a rifle.... Willto Mar 2022 #144
The most dangerous bear is a wounded bear n/t Strelnikov_ Mar 2022 #142
I love your passion and ideals, but it's a terrible idea Bucky Mar 2022 #76
That's assuming there is no resistance in chain of command to Putin's possible order to use nukes. Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #114
What's going on in Ukraine is horrible. It's not genocide. Bucky Mar 2022 #119
Genocide: Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #120
Dude, you're embarrassing yourself Bucky Mar 2022 #121
I don't mind being embarrassed if it raises awareness and saves lives. Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #123
Maybe the folks ForgedCrank Mar 2022 #84
Agreed Sherman A1 Mar 2022 #91
Hard to imagine people think this way. left-of-center2012 Mar 2022 #100
Again, if we don't "risk WWIII" defending Ukraine, the world will still have to take that risk, soon Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #102
Nope left-of-center2012 Mar 2022 #104
Yeah, how foolish of me to oppose genocide. Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #108
Whatever left-of-center2012 Mar 2022 #110
Maybe they will have to risk it, and maybe they won't... DemocraticPatriot Mar 2022 #133
Why is escalation the only option???? CrackityJones75 Mar 2022 #106
Either NATO can escalate on their terms, or Putin will on his. Escalation can't be avoided Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #111
Why is escalation unavoidable? If anything, he will be forced to withdraw. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #115
Have you noticed Putin's goals and strategies have changed? Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #116
Right now, the dynamic is against Russia in all ways. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #125
The body bags are filling quickly with dead Ukrainians Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #126
We aren't dithering. We are moving along with the same effective strategy in play all along. Gore1FL Mar 2022 #137
Putin's strategy has shifted in the last 24 hours- he seems less interested in "taking" Ukraine Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #138
He is desperate. His ability to do so diminishes each day. The strategy is working. nt Gore1FL Mar 2022 #140
You are exactly why I prefer experienced adults running our foreign policy, MarineCombatEngineer Mar 2022 #134
. Iggo Mar 2022 #141
As much as my heart truly breaks for Ukrainians, the US should not be pulled into In It to Win It Mar 2022 #122
Still wondering if u informed your family u decided they were expendable Kaleva Mar 2022 #145
Why in such a hurry to start WWIII? Chainfire Mar 2022 #149
There is really no reason to. Oneironaut Mar 2022 #152
Putin's strategy appears to have shifted in last 24 hours, from occupation to death & destruction Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #153
Dear Fiendish Thingy...we often disagree in some areas...but you are one of my favorite DU'ers. Demsrule86 Mar 2022 #154
Thanks for the kind words, Demsrule, you made my day. Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #155
DEFINITELY do not agree! jmowreader Mar 2022 #156
Wouldn't that be considered a war crime? Fiendish Thingy Mar 2022 #158
Maybe a "crime against humanity" jmowreader Mar 2022 #161

MineralMan

(146,288 posts)
2. So, who is the author of the stuff at that poorly designed website?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 04:49 PM
Mar 2022

What is the source of his or her expertise? Why did you post it here? Do you know more about the author? If so, please share.

ETA: Molly McKew. I don't find much background on her, really, nor any information on the value of her writings.

And ETA: Here's a link to something about her. Apparently, she has also taught at Georgetown as a lowly adjunct professor. The article at the link questions her expertise and background:

https://thehoya.com/adjunct-professors-qualifications-questioned-colleagues/

 

48656c6c6f20

(7,638 posts)
36. Thanks for linking to another poorly
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:12 PM
Mar 2022

Designed website. So is it a contest? Are we to pick the least shitty website and that's the winner?

MineralMan

(146,288 posts)
37. You're welcome.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:14 PM
Mar 2022

I just get tired of people posting stuff from blogs, without any information about the person who wrote whatever they shared.

So, I go and look. Often the source is just a self-described "expert." Random information has random validity.

ColinC

(8,291 posts)
3. Probably true.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 04:53 PM
Mar 2022

Thing is they don't have to actually go to war with Russia. They only have to enter the country Berlin airlift style and Russia will leave with their tail between their legs. But they are too scared of doing even that.

dumbcat

(2,120 posts)
5. What is "Berlin airlift style"?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:01 PM
Mar 2022

and what would that have to do with Ukraine?

The flights into Berlin in that era were unopposed. Do you expect the same thing from Russia in Ukraine?

ColinC

(8,291 posts)
12. Russia won't oppose it.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:18 PM
Mar 2022

They already agreed to humanitarian corridors. The only thing is they don't follow through with them. If the US used these corridors, Russia will be forced to honor them.

ColinC

(8,291 posts)
15. There just needs to be an immediate consequence for them to follow through. Otherwise they will keep
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:23 PM
Mar 2022

Murdering people

PortTack

(32,762 posts)
24. No Russia won't oppose it. They want as many Ukrainians to leaves as possible. They then intend
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:56 PM
Mar 2022

To install Russian loyalists into the country out numbering the number of Ukrainian citizens, call for a national referendum on whether the country should return to Russia or stay independent.

It’s the same thing they did in Crimea.

We can’t let it come to this!!

ColinC

(8,291 posts)
13. Same thing.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:21 PM
Mar 2022

Ukraine is in a deeply critical humanitarian situation. They need those supplies. Russia's strategy has been to cutoff any resources from key cities. This is unacceptable. Not only that, but if Russia's strategy depends on starving cities, humanitarian aid become critical to Ukraine s winning the war. You don't need to blow things up for this to happen, it just has to happen. Like yesterday.

hadEnuf

(2,189 posts)
4. So are we seriously discussing nuclear warfare? That's a real loser for mankind.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 04:58 PM
Mar 2022

Putin is an old Soviet cold warrior. We knew what would push the Soviets over the edge and we should know what would push Putin.

Unfortunately we are stuck just like we were in 1956, 1968 and 1980.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
6. Not necessarily- NATO could defend Ukraine effectively without using nukes
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:14 PM
Mar 2022

The current fear is, if NATO entered Ukraine to aid their defense, Putin would respond with nukes.

If he did (and the evidence is far from certain- he might give the order to launch nukes, but with the current chain of command for launching nukes in Russia, it’s far from certain his order would be followed), then Russia will have made an aggressive nuclear first strike, the first such strike in history (assuming NATO didn’t attack Russian soil and only defended Ukrainian territory), and every Russian would then have to live in fear of what NATO would do next.

If that assumption is accepted, and NATO doesn’t defend Ukraine, then NATO will eventually be faced with the decision of whether to defend a NATO country, say Latvia or Estonia, against a Russian invasion, when it will, not might, happen in the future.

Except that a future Russian invasion of NATO would likely mean a larger Russia/reconstituted USSR, with more nukes spread around a larger area. It could also mean NATO would no longer have the US, and it’s nukes, as a member.

It’s a can that can’t be kicked down the road- either NATO fights Putin now, or they will have to fight him, on NATO turf, soon.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
19. There are a multitude of other scenarios that may
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:40 PM
Mar 2022

Play out other than the one you describe including the Vladimir Putin going out of business sale. I am not supportive of getting into a direct shooting war with the Russians at this point.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
83. If NATO doesn't get into a war against Putin now, they are destined to after Ukraine falls
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:32 PM
Mar 2022

Putin won’t stop with Ukraine.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
34. There is no decision if Putin attacks a NATO country. That invokes Article 5.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:11 PM
Mar 2022

There is no evidence that he would want to invite that conflict after seeing the west's unity already. There is nothing he could muster to attack them with at this time. His resources are already over-committed to Ukraine to the point that he is counting on Belarus and Syrian fighters to be the game changer.

The scenario makes no sense.

hadEnuf

(2,189 posts)
157. No, the current worry is that all bets are off if NATO steps in.
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 04:53 PM
Mar 2022

We then have a possible direct confrontation with US / NATO and Russian forces, whether opinion piece writers think so or not. That changes the rules for everyone and would actually give Putin cover to start messing with NATO countries. Once that happens we are required to step in further and then all it takes is for the losing side to use 1 tactical nuke. That then legitimizes their usage and it becomes a case of retaliation in kind. Any other expectation is basically hoping that a lit match thrown into a pool of gasoline will somehow not ignite it.

Maybe you or the author are unfamiliar with the cold war but nothing ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, just the likelihood of it becoming a hot war. We both still have the power to wipe each other out 5 times over and the protocol for using nukes is still basically the same as it always was. We are all playing with fire if we start deluding ourselves into thinking that everything has changed.

Biden has stated that American forces involved in Ukraine basically amounts to WWIII and he is 100% correct.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
159. If the Ukraine war ends with Putin still in power, NATO will still have to fight him eventually.
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 04:59 PM
Mar 2022

There is no escaping a war with Putin. It can be now, defending Ukraine, on NATO’s terms, or a little while from now, on Putin’s terms, after the Ukrainian genocide is complete and Putin has reconstituted the USSR and expanded his nuclear arsenal.

I don’t think the NATO allies have the stamina to sustain sanctions much beyond the summer, and I think Putin knows that.

He’s nothing if not a patient man.

NOTE: For all the arguments and debates I’ve engaged in at DU, this one I would be happy, no, ecstatic, to be wrong about.

pbmus

(12,422 posts)
30. When the bully is hitting you...
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:05 PM
Mar 2022

You can’t just throw words at him…

Bullies understand one thing…hitting back

sarisataka

(18,633 posts)
38. You need to contact Biden right away
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:16 PM
Mar 2022
"The idea that we're going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in, American pilots and American crews, just understand. Don't kid yourself, no matter what you all say, that's called World War Three, okay?"



sarisataka

(18,633 posts)
52. That's why you need to reach out
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:32 PM
Mar 2022

Biden's advisors haven't told him that yet. I think the President of the United States should know when World War 3 has begun.

pbmus

(12,422 posts)
54. He has too many Neville's around him...
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:35 PM
Mar 2022

I am not advocating for USA involvement alone…I am advocating NATO to get involved.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
39. Ah!
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:19 PM
Mar 2022

Another of the “we ain’t doin’ nuthin’” group.

Where do you think the Javelins and other lethal military aid has come from?

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
43. The warhead on the stingers and javelins are filled with more than words.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:22 PM
Mar 2022

Russian losses are substantial. They are being hit a lot harder than they ever expected.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
62. How is that obvious?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:52 PM
Mar 2022

They are on day 16 of a 2-day invasion and have met zero of their objectives. They lost a stealth naval vessel. Anywhere from 3000-14000 soldiers are wounded or missing, depending on who you ask. The Ukrainians have managed to steal, destroy, or otherwise disable swaths of frontline Russian military equipment.

Meanwhile the Russian economy is in a shambles and crashing further each day. Even erstwhile partners are shying away. Protests fill the streets. Military leaders are dying, being fired, or being arrested. Putin is going out of his mind.

Time is on Ukraine's side. Time is against Russia.

Why change that dynamic? It gives Putin something to rally his people around.

I'm sticking with the Napoleon quote from my post above.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
89. That's why we are providing Ukraine with all of those things previously mentioned.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:37 PM
Mar 2022

The bully in this scenario is pretty badly bloodied and is ostracized economically and diplomatically. Any direct action NATO would take pre-article-5 confirms Putin's propaganda about NATO. There is no reason to change the dynamic. Russia is losing. Ukraine is winning.

MarineCombatEngineer

(12,369 posts)
131. Here's a suggestion,
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 11:33 PM
Mar 2022

Ukraine is looking for volunteers to help them defend against the Russians, why don't you just skip on down to the nearest Ukrainian Embassy and volunteer as you seem so eager to get into a hot war?

pbmus

(12,422 posts)
92. My family has already fought and died on that continent and
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:40 PM
Mar 2022

If I was younger I would have already been there.

Deuxcents

(16,197 posts)
26. We can't afford to lose democracy
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:03 PM
Mar 2022

In Ukraine or here. I agree w/ Col Vindman..there are ways we can help n we need to do it now bc sooner or later, we’ll be in it deeper than now.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
45. We are helping in a lot of ways. It's successful so far.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:25 PM
Mar 2022

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." -Napoleon

Strelnikov_

(7,772 posts)
49. How are we going to lose anything to Russia, unless they launch nukes?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:30 PM
Mar 2022

Their conventional forces, as it turns out, are even more of a shell than anyone imagined. With nukes off the table, the EU, without US help, could knock Russia back on their heels in short order.

The bigger threat to democracy in the United States is internal. We should attack there, first.

Further, Russia is at their most dangerous, right now. They know they are weak, now. Combine Russian paranoia of being invaded (WW II PTSD), and the fog of war, the west must tread carefully.

But, no, I am no longer buying that Russia is some budding Nazi Germany in the making meme.

More like Mussolini's Italy, and they are in the process of losing a good part of their army near where the Italian's did in WW II, forcing Mussolini's removal from office.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
86. Except Mussolini didn't have nukes.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:35 PM
Mar 2022

If he did, things would have turned out differently, even with a failing army.

Chainfire

(17,536 posts)
124. Your title is the key. We have a good leadership team making calculated decistions on how to go
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:44 PM
Mar 2022

forward. The purpose of my post was to dispute the rhetoric of the poster who said that "he bet" that Russians wouldn't use nuclear weapons. Betting with the future of the species is silly even with odds stacked high in our favor. We can't bet, we need to know. That is why we need patience with our Commander In Chief. President Biden's job is to make sure, not to bet. Thank Dog he is not Trump.

It is not enough that Russia loses in Ukraine, they need to lose without dragging the rest of the world down with them. That is why things aren't happening as fast as some of us would like them to. If it goes badly wrong, there will be no do-overs.

Ukraine is suffering, and it breaks my heart, but so far, both they and world are winning, lets keep it that way.

Strelnikov_

(7,772 posts)
147. There are two periods were thermonulear war may break out as a result of this war
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 10:54 AM
Mar 2022

One - The immediate. The west led by the Biden administration is doing an admirable job so far walking that tightrope, IMHO.

Two - The future. Regardless of the comments from the peanut gallery, the historical analogy is more Mussolini's Italy than Nazi Germany. Russia's equivalent of the facist council will be kicking Putin aside at some point. The veil will be pulled off for the Russian people, there will be a period similar to the 90's.

The risk comes when a militaristic Republican attains the Presidency (Cotton, DeSantis, MTG, Boebert) and decides to reboot the Bush administration's plans to pressure Russia to gain access to its resources. That's when the Russian paranoia of being invaded could lead to the unthinkable happening in the fog of war.

So, I will drop a bombshell I have been thinking about. Once the fall comes, we need to help Russia rebuild, not make the mistakes made in the 90's, and as a carrot offer NATO membership to Russia if they reform their ways (stipulations). This will go a long way to address Russian paranoia, and thwart a future MTG administration.

Kaleva

(36,298 posts)
17. Have you told your family you decided that they are worth sacrificing?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:29 PM
Mar 2022

If you are wrong? If so, have they agreed with you?

Kaleva

(36,298 posts)
28. I asked a question. Aren't you curious?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:04 PM
Mar 2022

I'll support whatever Biden decides. Even if it means war but I'm not going to jump the gun and say the lives of everyone I know are worth risking.

Kaleva

(36,298 posts)
73. It's like playing Russian Roulette.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:12 PM
Mar 2022

Odds are in your favor on the first pull but one still has to consider the risk. Considering the potential catastrophic results if there is a bullet in the chamber.

With nukes, there is no do over if one figures wrong.

Kaleva

(36,298 posts)
109. In the end, it doesn't matter what I think
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:42 PM
Mar 2022

We can only accept what Biden decides and I'm fine with that

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
98. You're assuming I'm advocating for nuclear war, or that Putin will definitely respond with nukes
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:51 PM
Mar 2022

While I acknowledge the risk that Putin could respond with nukes if NATO forces entered Ukraine (announcing their role as strictly defensive), I reject that it is a foregone conclusion. The same question you’re asking me must be forced upon Putin’s inner circle- are they willing to sacrifice their families?

What I do assert as certain is, if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine NOW, he will continue to seek to expand his empire, including into NATO.

I don’t expect NATO and the other nations will be able to sustain the sanctions past this summer. As winter approaches, with both energy and wheat shortages, I think the sanctions will crumble. Putin doesn’t give a fuck about the hardships the Russian people will go through. He’s reshuffling his inner circle of military and intelligence toadies as we speak, because he knows as the sanctions take hold, the greater chance someone will try to depose him.

Strategically, if Ukraine falls (or is bombed into complete rubble from border to border), then Putin will likely redirect his efforts to the 2024 election. If Trump is successfully reinstalled, you can bet the first order of business will be withdrawal from NATO.

And then, Putin takes the Baltic states, maybe Poland. France and the UK would be the only remaining nuclear powers in NATO, with less than a tenth of Russia’s warheads between them. Do you think France and the UK will engage in a nuclear war with Russia without the US?

Like I said, NATO will be at war with Putin, the only choice is will it be on NATO’s terms, or Putin’s?

Kaleva

(36,298 posts)
105. I didn't say it was a forgone conclusion
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:40 PM
Mar 2022

But the risk is there and has to be taken into account

Have you told loved ones that they are worth sacrificing? That the risk of losing them is justified?

Stinky The Clown

(67,798 posts)
21. On one point I COMPLETELY agree with you. If Biden is not reelected, we are likely to be out of NATO
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:47 PM
Mar 2022

It we are out of NATO it will be weakened perhaps to the point it may cease to exist.

Polybius

(15,398 posts)
130. Well if we're out of NATO and a war breaks out, won't that mean we won't be involved in it?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 11:24 PM
Mar 2022

Is that necessarily a bad thing if we're not part of a nuke war?

tavernier

(12,383 posts)
23. So first of all, this scenario sees this war continuing
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 05:48 PM
Mar 2022

until our next presidential election, and secondly, forecasts Trump as the future elected president.

Umm… I call it a fictional scenario on both counts.

Who wrote this drivel?

pbmus

(12,422 posts)
48. The mention of the Big Con in the discussion is valid
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:30 PM
Mar 2022

Because this country is still not over him..

sarisataka

(18,633 posts)
27. Step out your front door and look around your neighborhood
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:03 PM
Mar 2022

Now imagine it looks like this



Because if your imagined scenario doesn't go exactly as you picture it. Only it won't be just your neighborhood but hundreds of cities. Princeton did a study that estimated the escalation after one nuclear weapon being used would be 34 million dead and 57 million injured in a matter of a few hours.

Remember not much more than two years ago when we were questioning what would our military do if a madman ordered a nuclear launch? How much faith do you have in the Russian military, who are already in a tough war. And their madman who has had over twenty years to loyal people in key positions.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
29. Why "surely" is this an eventuality, and why is time on Putin's side?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:05 PM
Mar 2022

There are a lot of assumptions simply presented as facts. Sanctions haven't even been completely implemented and the effects are already large.

Decisions to go to war need to be made rationally and with facts. Emotion is a poor reason to commit troops.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
71. NATO didn't go to war on Feb 24, 2022.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:05 PM
Mar 2022

The ship is safely in port and will sail when it needs to.

Samrob

(4,298 posts)
35. I posted this in another thread but it seems to fit better here. Sorry.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:11 PM
Mar 2022

In 1995 in central Europe, Bosnian Serbs had begun wiping out the largely Muslim population in their own country. That July, violence reached a climax when Bosnian Serb soldiers overran the city of Srebrenica and murdered more than 8,000 defenseless men and boys. "That was a real shock for everyone," says Kofi Annan, U.N. Secretary-General. "And for that to happen in Europe, many decades after World War II, was something that nobody could sit back and swallow." In response, President Clinton initiated Operation Deliberate Force, a massive NATO military response. "He didn't blink," National Security Coordinator Richard Clarke said. "We knew that day that we had a commander-in-chief who was rational and comfortable with the use of force." As relevant today concerning Ukraine as then concerning Bosnia.

&t=1366s


 

Shanti Shanti Shanti

(12,047 posts)
46. Nope, let Germany, Italy and France send in ground troops first if the EU wants a war
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:26 PM
Mar 2022

Not our fight, let them clean up their own backyard

Strelnikov_

(7,772 posts)
57. Neville Chamberlain took the only course available to him at the time
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:36 PM
Mar 2022

The BEF (standing army) consisted of two divisions at the time of the Chech crises. The British people wanted nothing to do with another war in Europe. Chamberlain's intent was to buy Britain time to rearm.

pbmus

(12,422 posts)
64. Words and more words while real people died and are dying today...
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:56 PM
Mar 2022

In March 1938 Austria became a part of Germany in the Anschluss. Though the beleaguered Austrians requested help from Britain, none was forthcoming.[95] Britain did send Berlin a strong note of protest.[96] In addressing the Cabinet shortly after German forces crossed the border, Chamberlain placed blame on both Germany and Austria.[95] Chamberlain noted,

It is perfectly evident now that force is the only argument Germany understands and that "collective security" cannot offer any prospect of preventing such events until it can show a visible force of overwhelming strength backed by the determination to use it. ... Heaven knows I don't want to get back to alliances but if Germany continues to behave as she has done lately she may drive us to it.[95]

On 14 March, the day after the Anschluss, Chamberlain addressed the House of Commons and strongly condemned the methods used by the Germans in the takeover of Austria. Chamberlain's address met with the approval of the House.[96]

Chamberlain arrives in Munich, September 1938
With Austria absorbed by Germany, attention turned to Hitler's obvious next target, the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia. With three million ethnic Germans, the Sudetenland represented the largest German population outside the "Reich"[97] and Hitler began to call for the union of the region with Germany.[98] Britain had no military obligations toward Czechoslovakia,[99] but France and Czechoslovakia had a mutual assistance pact[95] and both the French and Czechoslovaks also had an alliance with the Soviet Union. After the fall of Austria, the Cabinet's Foreign Policy Committee considered seeking a "grand alliance" to thwart Germany or, alternatively, an assurance to France of assistance if the French went to war. Instead, the committee chose to advocate that Czechoslovakia be urged to make the best terms it could with Germany.[100] The full Cabinet agreed with the committee's recommendation, influenced by a report from the chiefs of staff stating that there was little that Britain could do to help the Czechs in the event of a German invasion.[100] Chamberlain reported to an amenable House that he was unwilling to limit his government's discretion by giving commitments.[101]

Britain and Italy signed an agreement on 16 April 1938. In exchange for de jure recognition of Italy's Ethiopian conquest, Italy agreed to withdraw some Italian "volunteers" from the Nationalist (pro-Franco) side of the Spanish Civil War. By this point, the Nationalists strongly had the upper hand in that conflict, and they completed their victory the following year.[102] Later that month, the new French prime minister, Édouard Daladier, came to London for talks with Chamberlain, and agreed to follow the British position on Czechoslovakia.[103]

In May, Czech border guards shot two Sudeten German farmers who were trying to cross the border from Germany into Czechoslovakia without stopping for border controls. This incident caused unrest among the Sudeten Germans, and Germany was then said to be moving troops to the border. In response to the report, Prague moved troops to the German border. Halifax sent a note to Germany warning that if France intervened in the crisis on Czechoslovakia's behalf, Britain might support France. Tensions appeared to calm, and Chamberlain and Halifax were applauded for their "masterly" handling of the crisis.[95] Though it was not known at the time, it later became clear that Germany had had no plans for a May invasion of Czechoslovakia.[95] Nonetheless, the Chamberlain government received strong and almost unanimous support from the British press.[104]

Negotiations between the Czech government and the Sudeten Germans dragged on through mid-1938.[105] They achieved little result; Sudeten leader Konrad Henlein was under private instructions from Hitler not to reach an agreement. On 3 August, Walter Runciman (by now Lord Runciman) travelled to Prague as a mediator sent by the British government.[106] Over the next two weeks, Runciman met separately with Henlein, Czechoslovak President Edvard Beneš, and other leaders, but made no progress.[107] On 30 August. Chamberlain met his Cabinet and Ambassador Henderson and secured their backing—with only First Lord of the Admiralty Duff Cooper dissenting against Chamberlain's policy to pressure Czechoslovakia into making concessions, on the ground that Britain was then in no position to back up any threat to go to war.[108]

Chamberlain realised that Hitler would likely signal his intentions in his 12 September speech at the annual Nuremberg Rally, and so he discussed with his advisors how to respond if war seemed likely. In consultation with his close advisor Sir Horace Wilson, Chamberlain set out "Plan Z". If war seemed inevitable, Chamberlain would fly to Germany to negotiate directly with Hitler.[109]

DemocraticPatriot

(4,361 posts)
136. The points you make, against 'appeasement' and whatnot, would be arguable, even meritorious....
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 12:07 AM
Mar 2022

if Putin did not have it within his power to unleash a global thermonuclear war, to which we would be forced to respond in kind, which would extinguish any meaningful amount of human life on this planet within 10 years, via an inevitable nuclear winter and mass starvation.


Hitler did not possess any atomic bombs, nobody did at the time. Thus the comparisons to today's situation compared to 1938 are without any merit whatsoever.

If there were no nuclear arms in the world, I would be with you-- and would support US and NATO military action in Ukraine... but that is not the world we live in, so such comparisons are pointless.

I think President Joe Biden has responded EXACTLY RIGHT in this situation, and is doing everything I would have him do, if I were in his place. This is the "measured, calm leadership" that I voted for.

... and the supposition that Trump will inevitably re-occupy the White House after the 2024 election, shows an anxiousness to vote against "the home team", does it not ??

Even if Trump DOES manage to STEAL the White House again, he cannot 'unilaterally' withdraw the United States from the NATO alliance, rendering the entire premise of this article into senseless war-mongering drivel. The vast majority of the American people would not support withdrawal from NATO, if he attempted to accomplish it...


As others have said, if you feel so passionate about the cause, GO THERE and fight yourself! Since you have said you are "too old", then give money to them! Maybe you can take out a "reverse mortgage" and give even more money!

Just don't advocate jumping into World War III before it is absolutely necessary-- and just now, it is not.



Mariana

(14,856 posts)
81. And rearm they did, in record time. Chamberlain did the right thing.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:30 PM
Mar 2022

If Britain had lost to Germany in 1938, it wouldn't have improved the situation in Europe, not one little tiny bit. Similarly, nukes flying would not improve the situation in Ukraine.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
68. Full stop.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:02 PM
Mar 2022

Are you seriously equating the world-wide consequences Russia is enduring as a result of their failed invasion of Ukraine to Neville Chamberlain allowing Hitler's annexation of the Sudetenland?

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
72. Explain how the two are similar. Explain it to me like I am six.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:09 PM
Mar 2022

How is being awarded the Sudetenland like having your economy shutdown while your enemy provided with advanced weapons, intelligence, diplomatic support, and humanitarian aid?

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
96. If you are so terribly interested in this war and getting involved
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:44 PM
Mar 2022

I hear that the Embassy of Ukrainian is looking for volunteers. I'm sure that there number is in the DC telephone directory. Perhaps you should consider giving them a call?

Mariana

(14,856 posts)
107. Here is the contact info for the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, DC.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:41 PM
Mar 2022
https://www.embassypages.com/ukraine-embassy-washingtondc-unitedstates

This link provides address, phone number, fax, e-mail, and link to their website.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
113. Thanks, but I'm not the one that needs it.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:56 PM
Mar 2022

I am trusting President Biden and his team to handle the situation without things expanding any further than they are presently unlike some naysayers and Monday Morning Quarterbacks who seem to know everything.

Mariana

(14,856 posts)
117. I apologize, I didn't mean it for you.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:11 PM
Mar 2022

It's pissing me off to no end how little trust so many of the Democrats on this site have in President Biden. He and his staff know 1000 times more about the situation than we do, and he's making decisions based upon that information. I trust his judgement to do what's best for our country and its people.

I am seriously considering dragging out some old Chickenhawk memes I have floating around in the depths of my hard drive. Seems like they would be appropriate in some of these threads.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
118. Thanks!
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:13 PM
Mar 2022

and I would drag out those memes because I would sure like to see them posted in response to some of these comments.

WarGamer

(12,440 posts)
51. that's like taking a hand grenade... pulling the pin and dropping it at your feet.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 06:32 PM
Mar 2022

After all... hand grenades don't always detonate.

Celerity

(43,343 posts)
93. Molly McKew is a very problematic warmonger and an ex RW American Enterprise Institute collaborator
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:41 PM
Mar 2022

Last edited Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:31 PM - Edit history (1)

who shilled for Bush and his illegal Iraq war

https://www.aei.org/profile/molly-mckew/

Her Foreign Agents Registration Act records

https://tinyurl.com/mbhejcp8


The hawks of war have come out to play

They’re so excited about the prospect of a war.

https://theoutline.com/post/831/leah-letter-the-hawks-of-war-have-come-out-to-play


She often doesn't disclose her lobbyist ties and claims titles she is not qualified to claim.


Adjunct Professor’s Qualifications Questioned by Colleagues

https://thehoya.com/adjunct-professors-qualifications-questioned-colleagues/

Molly McKew, a recently hired adjunct professor teaching a course on Russian disinformation campaigns for the School of Foreign Service, has faced criticism from colleagues and news outlets for her former status as a foreign lobbyist. McKew, who holds a masters degree in Russian and Post-Soviet Studies and has served as an advisor to political parties in Georgia and Moldova, is teaching her first course at Georgetown this semester. The course, entitled “Russian Hybrid Warfare,” focuses on the history of Russian ideology and information warfare. McKew also currently serves as the CEO of Fianna Strategies, a consulting firm.

Greg Afinogenov, an assistant professor of Imperial Russian History at Georgetown, criticized the university’s hiring of McKew. In a series of tweets, Afinogenov wrote that McKew’s history as a foreign lobbyist posed several conflicts of interest to her role as a professor. “A student who takes her class will not know which of her ideas are truth, which are credible suppositions, and which are complete fabrications,” Afinogenov wrote in a Jan. 10 tweet. McKew has written articles for several publications, including Politico and The Washington Post, and has also served as a commentator for TV and radio shows such as Frontline.

McKew’s writings are not academic in nature and do not qualify her as a scholar or an expert, Afinogenov wrote in an email to The Hoya. “McKew is an example of exactly the kind of journalist whose articles should be corrected by scholars: the claims she makes are outlandish, escalationist, and rooted in a history of working for foreign governments with an interest in influencing public debate in the United States,” @Afinogenov wrote.


https://archive.ph/1nkwr










evidence of her unprofessionalism and basic error-making


McKew proclaimed that the Kremlin can nuke their own people per their official encoded doctrine.

No.



Aric Toler, a lead researcher at Bellingcat and the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, tracked down where McKew found it. A looney Russian history buff wrote it for an alternative Russian paper.






more


Gerasimov Doctrine

In September 2017, Politico published McKew’s article about “The Gerasimov Doctrine.” She alleges this is a new Russian hybrid warfare model coined by Russian General Valery Gerasimov; it ran in a Russian military periodical in February of 2013.

The Gerasimov Doctrine has technically been debunked by one of the most respected Russian experts and the man who coined the term “The Gerasimov Doctrine” Mark Galeotti. This is what Galeotti wrote on July 6, 2014:

“When using the term ‘Gerasimov Doctrine,’ I was just going for a snappy title. I really didn’t expect (or want) it to become a more generally used term. Why? (a) Gerasimov didn’t invent this; if any CoGS deserves the ‘credit’ it would be his predecessor Makarov, but even so it is really an evolutionary, not revolutionary process; and (b) it’s not a doctrine, which is in the Russian lexicon a truly foundational set of beliefs as to what kinds of war the country will be fighting in the future and how it will win them — this is more an observation about a particular aspect of particular kinds of wars in the 21st Century, there is certainly no expectation that this is the Russian way of war. So stop it, please!”


Additionally, Roger McDermott, an expert on Russian military and security issues addressed the insignificance of the “Gerasimov Doctrine” in a paper last year.

“Indeed, no less an authority on whether Russia had devised a hybrid warfare doctrine and operational approach to conflict is General Gerasimov himself. By March 2016, though aware of the extent of Western speculation in this regard, it appears Gerasimov was oblivious to its actual existence. Gerasimov’s more recent piece entirely contradicts the widely held interpretation of his February 2013 article and implies his earlier article was being misread and misinterpreted outside Russia”



I’m Sorry for Creating the ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’

I was the first to write about Russia’s infamous high-tech military strategy. One small problem: it doesn't exist.

By Mark Galeotti

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/05/im-sorry-for-creating-the-gerasimov-doctrine/

WarGamer

(12,440 posts)
127. thanks for all the info, Celerity!
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 11:07 PM
Mar 2022

She (McKew) is an idiot... a warmongering RW'er of the first degree.

Celerity

(43,343 posts)
139. and yet I am sure her ill-informed incendiary claptrap will continue to be put up simply
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 12:29 AM
Mar 2022

because it feeds into certain segments of the armchair general crowd as they go all hawk-hawk.

The type who have been pushing to 'cruise missile Moscow' and other assorted dangerous AF bollocks.

MineralMan

(146,288 posts)
150. Thanks for your research!
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 11:34 AM
Mar 2022

I asked about the author early in the thread, and looked around a little. What I saw confirmed my skepticism about her. What you have presented is far more comprehensive and bolsters my feeling that she is full of crap.

Response to Fiendish Thingy (Original post)

NickB79

(19,236 posts)
66. Russia would be crushed in a conventional war right now
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:01 PM
Mar 2022

Hell, Germany alone could probably take them, seeing how poorly they're doing in Ukraine. Their equipment is falling apart and their logistics are shit.

There is literally no risk of Putin threatening war outside of Ukraine for years, if not decades to come. The loss of both economic and military power in the past two weeks will take Putin the rest of his life to rebuild, if ever.

Bucky

(54,003 posts)
78. Which exactly is why he would escalate to tactical nukes if NATO stepped in
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:29 PM
Mar 2022

This is an entirely unserious discussion. People rolling up their sleeves and saying "Let's fight Russia" simply don't know what they're talking about

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
94. I don't think that is anyone's suggestion. It's disingenuous for you to frame it that way.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:42 PM
Mar 2022

There is a space between Putin "rolling over" Ukraine, and WWIII. Right now we are not at either extreme.

ruet

(10,039 posts)
99. About As Disingenuous Than Claiming...
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:55 PM
Mar 2022

a confrontation with Russia would, automatically, lead to the use of nuclear weapons. Actually, I take that back. The nuke thing is more disingenuous.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
112. It would start WWIII
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:56 PM
Mar 2022

Whether that is nuclear or not is anyone's guess. I don't like the odds, especially when it is avoidable.

Bucky

(54,003 posts)
95. I fully support Biden's handling of this.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:43 PM
Mar 2022

He's handling the situation about as well as anyone could.

All the generals, all the intelligence sheets, and all the political leaders of NATO are in lockstep agreement that you don't send troops into directly fight the Russians. I'll stick with the experts instead of the kneejerk emotionalism of someone who never fought anything bigger than a Risk board

NickB79

(19,236 posts)
103. If you haven't noticed, he's NOT rolling over Ukraine
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:30 PM
Mar 2022

They're destroying his military far beyond what anyone expected.

Even if Russia manages to take major cities, they'll be in a constant state of guerilla warfare as long as they stay. The Ukrainian people won't give up. And the Russian economy will be under siege at home as long as they stay in Ukraine, because the sanctions aren't going away anytime soon.

Russia is either stuck in Ukraine, bleeding bodies and rubles, or they pull out, too damaged to mount a new invasion anywhere for years. And a pullout would likely mean the end of Putin's career.

Strelnikov_

(7,772 posts)
143. Jesus Christ, it is a breath of fresh air to see posts like yours, Buckys and others
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 02:41 AM
Mar 2022

in this thread.

Nuclear war is the end of everything. What is it that people don't get?

They are not a conventional threat. Time will heal Ukraine, if the world is not blown up.

Considering how badly their conventional forces are, how good is their command and control for their nuclear forces? The west has to tread very lightly.

Willto

(292 posts)
144. Grab a rifle....
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 06:22 AM
Mar 2022

....and head for Ukraine if you feel so passionate about it. Easy to be gung ho when you are only risking the lives of other people. It's another matter to risk your own.

We are doing exactly what we should be doing. Providing Ukraine with weapons that are making the Russian invasion costly in man power and equipment. Meanwhile the sanctions are destroying Russia's economy. A Russian ruble is already so worthless that a 1000 of them would barely buy you a happy meal at McDonald's. And it's only going to get worse from here on. They may well take control of Ukraine but it's going to be a constant mess for them to hold it. A slow bleed insurgency that is going to make their time in Afghanistan seem like a church picnic.

Bucky

(54,003 posts)
76. I love your passion and ideals, but it's a terrible idea
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:24 PM
Mar 2022
Moving troops into Ukraine justifies everything Putin is doing. Moving troops into Ukraine who would give Putin the political leverage he needs in Russia to launch tactical battlefield nukes.

It would make a terrible situation a thousand times worse

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
114. That's assuming there is no resistance in chain of command to Putin's possible order to use nukes.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:59 PM
Mar 2022

If NATO doesn’t intervene, Ukraine will be reduced to rubble, and the genocide will continue. When you’ve given up on seizing territory and controlling the Ukrainian government, genocide is so much easier when you can launch air strikes and missiles from within your own borders. You don’t even have to aim.

Without NATO intervention,The genocide and destruction of Ukraine can likely be completed before the summer.

Do we only stop genocide by non-nuclear powers? Because that seems to be the new paradigm…

Bucky

(54,003 posts)
119. What's going on in Ukraine is horrible. It's not genocide.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:32 PM
Mar 2022

Please don't water down that word.

Anyway, if it's genocide you're worried about, you might start with not being blasé about waltzing into a nuclear war.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
120. Genocide:
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:34 PM
Mar 2022
gen·o·cide
/ˈjenəˌsīd/
noun
noun: genocide; plural noun: genocides
the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group


What’s happening in Ukraine is genocide.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
123. I don't mind being embarrassed if it raises awareness and saves lives.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:38 PM
Mar 2022

It’s better than being a genocide denialist.

ForgedCrank

(1,779 posts)
84. Maybe the folks
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:34 PM
Mar 2022

who think this is a good idea can send their own sons and daughters into war.
I prefer mine on US soil, not getting shot at or bombed.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
91. Agreed
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:40 PM
Mar 2022

and I prefer that my neighborhood be turned into toast as I am not that far from a defense plant producing F-15s and F-18s.

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
100. Hard to imagine people think this way.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 07:59 PM
Mar 2022
Hard to imagine some people think we can risk WW III
and Russia will just give up.


Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
102. Again, if we don't "risk WWIII" defending Ukraine, the world will still have to take that risk, soon
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:25 PM
Mar 2022

The only difference is will the risk be taken before Ukraine is destroyed completely, or after?

Putin will force that choice on NATO, or what’s left of NATO, if he isn’t stopped with Ukraine.

Shall we wait until Putin can double his warheads, and Trump withdraws the US from NATO?

It’s an awful situation, and it’s a choice that cannot be avoided, only delayed, and only for a little while. Americans and Europeans aren’t likely to support sanctions for more than a few months, especially once the Republicans politicize high gas prices and wheat shortages.

So, with Ukraine in ruins, and sanctions crumbling by the fall (I’d love to be wrong on that, but millions of Americans throw tantrums over masks, why would they support endless sanctions?), the only variable is if there is the will to depose Putin within his inner circle.

It’s a gamble that can’t be avoided, but the terms and timing can be determined by NATO, at least for a little while.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
108. Yeah, how foolish of me to oppose genocide.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:42 PM
Mar 2022

If a nuclear power is dissuaded from intervening to stop genocide because the country committing the genocide might possibly respond with nuclear weapons, then the charade of nuclear deterrence by the NATO powers will be undeniable.

DemocraticPatriot

(4,361 posts)
133. Maybe they will have to risk it, and maybe they won't...
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 11:42 PM
Mar 2022

My bet is on the Ukrainian people, that they will be able to weaken Russia's military so much that they will not be able to threaten any NATO country for years. They seem to be "kicking ass" so far.

I think President Biden is handling this situation EXACTLY RIGHT. I could not ask for more. I wanted a president who would not start a war over Twitter, and that is what we have. Furthermore, his leadership has strengthened the NATO alliance far beyond any expectations.

This whole theory seems dependent upon the supposition that Trump will be re-installed into the White House in '24. Why are we so anxious to bet against the home team ?? The most recent 2024 poll I read today, showed that even independents who disapprove of both Biden and Trump, would support Biden by a large margin in any 24 rematch. Also a vast majority of Americans, even Republicans, support sanctions even if gas prices will be higher.

Yes, it is deplorable what is happening in Ukraine, but we are helping them with money and arms, and they are buying us time. They are not a member of NATO. The line has been clearly drawn. If we have to risk nuclear war to defend NATO countries later, so be it... but I don't want this country to jump into a shooting war with Russia before that point.


Even if Trump were re-installed in the White House in '24 (and it may be a good bet that he may be in prison or still battling too many criminal charges to mount an effective challenge for the White House), he cannot UNILATERALLY withdraw the United States from NATO....





Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
111. Either NATO can escalate on their terms, or Putin will on his. Escalation can't be avoided
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:52 PM
Mar 2022

Putin will continue his genocide in Ukraine unless NATO stops him. If they don’t, then NATO, or what’s left of it, will be faced with escalation once Putin invades a NATO country (probably the Baltic states or Poland) in the not-too-distant future, by which time he may have expanded his empire and warheads.

Do you think France and the UK (the only nuclear powers in NATO) will go to war with Putin once Trump withdraws the US from NATO?

With the GOP politicizing high gas prices, Sanctions aren’t likely to last beyond the summer (I’d love to be wrong); Putin is counting on it.

Escalation is not a yes or no question; it’s not even a now or later question; it’s a now, or in just a little while from now, question. Again, I’d love to be wrong. Ukraine doesn’t have the luxury of NATO waiting for the full impact of sanctions to be felt.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
115. Why is escalation unavoidable? If anything, he will be forced to withdraw.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:59 PM
Mar 2022

He's losing politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily. Why change the dynamic that makes that possible by fulfilling the prophecies of his propaganda?

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
116. Have you noticed Putin's goals and strategies have changed?
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:05 PM
Mar 2022

Putin’s priority has appeared to have shifted to death and destruction, rather than seizing territory.

That’s his new “exit ramp”- kill millions, sow destruction everywhere, don’t worry about installing a puppet. Complete the Ukrainian genocide, declare the country “de-Nazified”, and bring the troops home to ticker tape parades. Keep the Donbas region. All by summertime.

Lather, rinse, repeat in the Baltics once Trump47 withdraws the US from NATO.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
125. Right now, the dynamic is against Russia in all ways.
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:46 PM
Mar 2022

Time is on the side of Ukraine. Time is not on the side of Russia. Speeding things up helps Russia. We need patience.

We absolutely don't need to base foreign policy on soothsaying regarding Donald Trump--especially when said divination requires multiple events to occur, the first of which, is more than two years in the future.

Have a little trust in U.S. foreign policy and not be so quick to fill body bags.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
126. The body bags are filling quickly with dead Ukrainians
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 10:55 PM
Mar 2022

While we dither about options, Putin’s carpet bombing is filling body bags at an increasing rate over the past few days.

I don’t think US foreign policy should be that we only intervene militarily in genocides committed by non-nuclear powers.

Again, I’m not advocating immediate military intervention, but the Ukrainian death rate is accelerating significantly with the shift of Putin’s strategy from dominance to destruction.

Gore1FL

(21,130 posts)
137. We aren't dithering. We are moving along with the same effective strategy in play all along.
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 12:20 AM
Mar 2022

We are delivering weapons, intelligence, diplomatic support, and a lot of other supplies as well as aiding with logistics from other nations providing support.

At the same time, we have slammed them with extreme sanctions that have crippled the Russian economy.

Putin is losing. He is not going to win this. The only chance he has is if we change the game. Also, this isn't a genocide. It diminishes actual genocides to call it that. There have been a lot of war crimes on the part of the Russians, but no genocide.

He doesn't have the forces to take Ukraine quickly, much less hold Ukraine down. The whole while his ability to make war diminishes rapidly as the days pass.

At this point, he'd be lucky to fund, supply, and otherwise organize a bus of seventh graders with a bag of rocks to threaten NATO.


Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
138. Putin's strategy has shifted in the last 24 hours- he seems less interested in "taking" Ukraine
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 12:25 AM
Mar 2022

And more interested in leveling it.

MarineCombatEngineer

(12,369 posts)
134. You are exactly why I prefer experienced adults running our foreign policy,
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 11:57 PM
Mar 2022

you know, adults that are not willing to blow up the world when there are other alternatives, alternatives that are being utilized as we speak.

I totally reject your war mongering.

In It to Win It

(8,248 posts)
122. As much as my heart truly breaks for Ukrainians, the US should not be pulled into
Fri Mar 11, 2022, 09:36 PM
Mar 2022

a direct conflict with Russia.

Kaleva

(36,298 posts)
145. Still wondering if u informed your family u decided they were expendable
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 06:44 AM
Mar 2022

That despite the potential of your family suffering great harm because of the course of action you decided upon, it was a risk worth taking?

Or are you going to keep them in the dark and just hope that nuclear war doesn't happen because of your action?

Chainfire

(17,536 posts)
149. Why in such a hurry to start WWIII?
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 11:12 AM
Mar 2022

We are at war with Russia as we speak. It is a war that is using economics instead of bombs, saving the lives of all parties involved. Lets give it a chance before we go burning off our collectives noses to spite our faces.

We always have the option of opening a shooting war with Russia we don't have to be in a hurry. I am sorry that Ukrainians are having to bear the invasion by their bigger neighbor. I hate to see their suffering, the deaths and the destruction, but we do not alleviate their suffering by multiplying their pain by a million times to achieve some perverse type of justice.

Biden has all of the information available at his fingertips, he has the most informed advisors, and the best intelligence. Let's not try to outguess his actions. Let Biden run our war, support him and be damn glad that he is in office and not the former fool.

Oneironaut

(5,493 posts)
152. There is really no reason to.
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 01:25 PM
Mar 2022

Russia is barely winning in Ukraine. They probably won’t be able to occupy it for more than a couple years. It looks like most of their army is just horrid T-72 variants, Soviet-era APCs, and 18-year-old conscripts with no training. If they attacked a NATO country, their forces wouldn’t even make it over the border for a day before being vaporized.

We’re imploding their economy as we speak. They can’t get parts to main their military equipment. It’s questionable if they’ll even capture the entire country of Ukraine at this point.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
153. Putin's strategy appears to have shifted in last 24 hours, from occupation to death & destruction
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 02:50 PM
Mar 2022

He will sow death and destruction until the west’s will to sustain sanctions dissolves, probably late summer, but almost certainly before the midterms (can’t have those high gas prices used against the Dems in November, amirite?)

Any end to this conflict that results in Putin remaining in power is a win for Putin, and he will continue to wreak havoc in Europe as long as he remains in power.

Demsrule86

(68,556 posts)
154. Dear Fiendish Thingy...we often disagree in some areas...but you are one of my favorite DU'ers.
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 03:04 PM
Mar 2022

You have a great heart...and I know that is why like all of us we want to stop the deaths in Ukraine. I see the horrors come out of Ukraine and I want to help desperately as well...fucking Putin. We now know he is telling his soldiers to kill civilians, particularly women and children. But going into an all-out war with Russia is madness and would lead to nuclear war. We spent decades fighting a cold war in order to prevent a nuclear holocaust...and that is what will happen if we go all out against Russia.

Thus we must use every tool we can to stop Putin while preserving civilization. I trust Joe Biden to do this and we must remain calm and see it through. I can't help believe that perhaps God or some higher being has placed Joe Biden here for a reason. He has decades of experience with the cold war and with Russia. He is the right man for the job. I don't know how it ends, but I hope to God it doesn't end with a nuclear cloud somewhere.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
155. Thanks for the kind words, Demsrule, you made my day.
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 04:36 PM
Mar 2022

Perhaps I wasn’t clear in my OP, but I’m not advocating for “all out war” against Russia, in Russia, only that NATO move in to Ukraine and fight against Russians there in order to stop the genocide now in progress. I’m advocating for NATO forces to enter Ukraine and engage in only defensive operations, similar to the UN peacekeeping mission in the former Yugoslavia (well, the parts that were actually peacekeeping).

I’m well aware of the risk that Putin could launch a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine or even on a NATO nation. He is using the threat of MAD to keep NATO out of the fight. If he succeeds, then The de facto NATO policy becomes “any nuclear power May commit genocide against a non-nuclear power unimpeded”.

IMO, The civilized world must take the risk that Putin’s order to launch WWIII would not be followed. Even If he launches a single tactical nuke, just think about the world’s reaction. I don’t know if his inner circle would allow him to order a second strike, knowing that, since NATO has very few short range tactical nukes compared to Russia, and the likely NATO response would be to level Moscow. Putin needs to be the one sweating out the possibility of WWIII, not NATO.

NATO forces could easily defeat the Russians in Ukraine with conventional warfare, then the question will be forced upon Putin and his inner circle- do we accept defeat in Ukraine, and let Russia survive , or do we destroy the world?

Up until about 48 hours ago, I was satisfied with the approach the NATO allies were taking and patient to wait for sanctions to have their effect. Then, Putin’s objective appeared to change. Instead of conquering and occupying Ukraine, his primary goal now seems to sow as much death and destruction, knowing he could never occupy and control such a courageous nation. Instead, he now intends to kill as many as possible, declare victory, and await his next opportunity.

I strongly urge you to read the essay at the link in my OP. In addition to supporting my position about NATO, it also makes the case that, if The Ukraine war ends with Putin still in power, he will continue his quest to reconstitute the USSR, expand his nuclear arsenal, and eventually attack NATO, likely starting with the Baltic states.

It really isn’t a question of whether to fight Putin or not; it’s a question of whether to fight him now in Ukraine, on NATO’s terms, or a little while from now, after the Ukraine genocide is complete, somewhere else, on Putin’s terms.

NOTE: if Russia could be expelled from the UN, or at least removed from the security council (there is a theory that they have no right to their seat, since the charter states the USSR, not Russia, has a permanent seat), then you can substitute UN peacekeepers for NATO forces in my OP and this post.

jmowreader

(50,557 posts)
156. DEFINITELY do not agree!
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 04:45 PM
Mar 2022

That’s exactly what Putin wants - to draw the rest of the world into World War III. Isolating Russia from the world will work…he’s definitely not going to win on the battlefield in Ukraine.

My recommendation is to call that slimy fuck into a room and give him an ultimatum: You have one week to get your asses out of the Ukraine. You have two weeks to agree to war reparations. If this isn’t done, we’re sending you Donald Trump and his whole family, and we’re not taking them back.

jmowreader

(50,557 posts)
161. Maybe a "crime against humanity"
Sat Mar 12, 2022, 09:43 PM
Mar 2022

Which of course is what Putin is doing on a daily basis so long as Russia is in the Ukraine.

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