Russia historian Stephen Kotkin: Putin doesn't even have a Quisling

[BeyondGeography]

This is a New Yorker interview with David Remnick:

But here are some of the considerations: after three or four weeks of war, you need a strategic pause. You have to refit your armor, resupply your ammo and fuel depots, fix your planes. You have to bring in reserves. There’s always a planned pause after about three to four weeks.

If Kyiv can hold out through that pause, then potentially it could hold out for longer than that, because it can be resupplied while the Russians are being resupplied during their pause.

Moreover, the largest and most important consideration is that Russia cannot successfully occupy Ukraine. They do not have the scale of forces. They do not have the number of administrators they’d need or the coöperation of the population. They don’t even have a Quisling yet.

These are excerpts. In the full audio interview at the link, Kotkin doesn’t rate Russia-based would-be Quisling Viktor Yanukovych high at all. He calls him “unbelievably corrupt,” “a psychologically unimpressive character,” and “incompetent.”

“Could he actually have the willpower, would he even agree, to run Ukraine on behalf of Russia? And if not him, who else?”

Kotkin then adds:

Think about all those Ukrainians who would continue to resist. The Nazis came into Kyiv, in 1940. They grabbed all the luxury hotels, but days later those hotels started to blow up. They were booby-trapped. If you’re an administrator or a military officer in occupied Ukraine and you order a cup of tea, are you going to drink that cup of tea? Do you want to turn the ignition on in your car? Are you going to turn the light switch on in your office? All it takes is a handful of assassinations to unsettle the whole occupation.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin

[jmbar2]

1. To add to that...

In Timothy Snyder's 2018 book, "On Tyranny", he describes in detail many of the political, historical and culture factors leading up to Russia's conduct today.

One thing that stands out: In strong-man tyrannies, they rarely have a plan to succeed the current Tyrant.

There will be other tyrants who want to take over, but there is usually no succession plan. This means that even if Putrid were to fall out of a window, Russia doesn't not have a mechanism for selecting a competent new head of state.

[SheltieLover]

2. Maybe they should try a fair election??

Unlikely, I realize.

[ToxMarz]

3. Yes, because in a strong man tyranny, planning for a successor

means planning for your ouster. Never gonna happen.

[KS Toronado]

4. There will never be an occupied Ukraine.

Rather one that will need a lot of help to rebuild their cities.

[peppertree]

5. For Putin, this will be like Afghanistan and Vietnam put together

The ultimate quagmire, blunder, and possibly even national suicide.

His own, at least, if he insists on this much longer.

[uponit7771]

6. K&R, the GZP wants America to look just like Putrids Russia which is 100% against democracy

[IronLionZion]

7. Russia should just take the 2 breakaway provinces and call it a win

and GTFO. Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk should be enough for Putin to compensate for his many inadequacies.

[BeyondGeography]

8. What about damages?

He certainly doesn’t get to walk away from this and get his frozen money back with interest. The price tag I’ve seen is $100 billion and counting.

[IronLionZion]

9. Keep the frozen money, yachts, jets, etc. to rebuild Ukraine

but good luck collecting on anything from within Russia.

That will be a good time to fortify Ukraine against another invasion and give them the Migs and antitank and antiaircraft weapons.

[electric_blue68]

12. I don't think "break away provinces" is totally correct...

I don't know if it's a real majority of each one wanting to be part of Russia, or not. Especially having had more Russian Russians (vs Ukraine Russians) moved there before the USSR broke up.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

10. Had to look that one up. Sounds like a British unit of currency, LOL.

See: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/quisling#English

Snip.....

Noun

quisling (plural quislings)

(derogatory) A traitor who collaborates with the enemy. [from 1940]

Synonyms: collaborator, traitor, rat

Etymology

Named after Norwegian military officer Vidkun Quisling (1887–1945), who ruled the Nazi collaborationist government of Norway during World War Two. From Quislinus, Latinization of Quislin, based on the Danish place name Kvislemark.

Add this one to the many descriptors for TFG.......

KY

[XacerbatedDem]

13. Really. That orange quisling guy. Fits! LOL

[maxsolomon]

11. Very astute analysis.

I like the discussion at the end of Sun Tzu's "Golden Bridge" for the enemy's retreat.

But more likely is continued devastation and death.