General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWant to read a Ukraine War assessment from people who are NOT stupid?
The Atlantic Council, working with Forward Defense have an analysis... (American think tank)
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-crisis-military-assessment-how-will-russia-stage-the-battle-of-kyiv/
Their summary for the coming week:
After two weeks of fighting, Russias own force miscalculations and fierce Ukrainian opposition have dashed the Kremlins hopes of a lightning victory over Ukraine. This week, we anticipate another Russian offensive against Kyiv which would heavily rely on artillery and air strikes targeting Ukrainian forcesbut with little regard for civilian casualties and collateral damage. The fight for air superiority remains highly contested, with unanticipated Russian Air Force losses. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to gain air superiority over the next week, and we expect high attrition of Russian attack aircraft and helicopters to continue as Russia attempts to support its ground forces. Meanwhile, Russian forces are enjoying much greater success in the south, where they are close to solidifying a land bridge from the Crimean Peninsula to the Donbas region. We predict Russia will carry out a major attack on Odesa, leveraging a small amphibious operation used to reinforce ground forces with additional personnel and ground-based fire systems and augmented by air and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions. Furthermore, we assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin will maintain, if not increase, his tacit or explicit threats of nuclear escalation.
Over the next week, Russia will attempt to cut the capital off and begin a brutal siege.
Irish_Dem
(45,661 posts)And considerable damage to infrastructure.
AntiFascist
(12,792 posts)WarGamer
(12,106 posts)The Russians are doing little aerial bombardment.
Interestingly... the article details how this week, for the first time the Russians are flying their top shelf SU-35S into battle armed with the radar-homing missiles to target mobile SAMS.
Irish_Dem
(45,661 posts)I am very glad he didn't start with that.
And why did he wait to be bring in the SU-35S until now?
Maybe he didn't think he needed air power or the SU until now?
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)I can't figure it out either.
When the US went in neck deep in shock and awe, we emptied the shelf, threw our newest weapons into the fight.
Russia went in like it's 1971
I have a few theories but I'm a noob.
1) Intel told him it'd be over in a week, no need to bust out the good stuff.
2) There is some sort of back-room deal with Scholz or Stoltenberg that NATO won't get involved if Russia keeps it "fair"
3) He's afraid of showcasing the good stuff because NATO is watching EVERYTHING closely to determine capabilities.
4) Embarrassment. If he throws the T-14 Armata tanks into the fray and they're getting popped like the T-72's... that's bad PR. And the new SU-57 that only has like 9 flying examples... what if it's a dud, not even stealth? Or the brand new S500 SAM... maybe no better than the S400?
intrepidity
(7,241 posts)WarGamer
(12,106 posts)Irish_Dem
(45,661 posts)Hard to believe. But we have seen it right in front of our eyes.
Irish_Dem
(45,661 posts)I don't know anything either. I just like to study WWII and military strategy.
1) If he wanted to take Ukraine in a short period of time, he would have needed to use air power and artillery before he sent in ground troops. He also should have taken out Ukrainian military and civilian leaders.
Unless as you suggest he had very bad intel. Hard to believe with Putin being an ex KGB agent, but he just jailed the two heads of foreign intelligence so perhaps this is the correct answer.
2) Putin hates NATO with a passion, so hard to believe he cut a back room deal. However given the lackluster NATO response to the Ukraine invasion, I certainly would think this possible. We know Putin has spread huge amounts of money around Europe for just this purpose. To get his way.
3) I can argue the opposite. I believe Putin wants to shock and awe the world. He is wanting to emerge as a superpower with dominance over the West. He wants the world to cower in fear and comply with his wishes. So why not showcase the fire power? Unless of course the reality doesn't match what he shows on paper. Perhaps the corruption has lead to faulty, missing planes, and equipment.
Of course if he thought Ukraine would be a cakewalk due to faulty intelligence, he may want to hide his most expensive, powerful military capabilities. And save them for his next invasion.
4) This goes back to my previous comment, he only looks like the third largest military in the world on paper.
Also the T-14 and Su-57 are very expensive to replace.
Some say Russian has been working on aircraft it cannot really afford.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)... 2. 100% agree, Putrid is Trump but with a skill he uses for darkness so no way he cuts a deal where he doesn't look like the victor 100% by himself,
3. Nance agrees with Irish_Dem that the good stuff is saved for NATO cause of subpoint in your #1; bad intel.
Putrid no doubt has switched to what has worked before; murdering everything moving.
UKR needs anti artillery weapons, that will piss putrid off even more
Also the T-14 and Su-57 are very expensive to replace.
Some say Russian has been working on aircraft it cannot really afford.
Yep, on paper they look bad ass ... bout it
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,790 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(48,790 posts)If Zelenskyy had fled or the assassination squads had succeeded and the paratroopers were not killed before they could do their dirty work, then the puppet government would have been installed and declared the war over.
Simply, Putin didn't think they would be necessary, until he failed at plan A.
AntiFascist
(12,792 posts)and what I'm hearing is that as the artillery is being held off, Russia will start relying on more aerial bombardment.
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)The Russians haven't acted logically.
It's impossible to predict how a 5 year old will play chess.
Happy Hoosier
(7,083 posts)Its shocking to me they havent been using them more extensively. When radar guided missiles are a threat, they are standard ordnance in a package load-out.
I assume they are using Su-35s because the range of the missile is such that the shooters are usually vulnerable to the SAM and the Su-35 reduces acquisition range enough to give some more confidence.
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)But I'd think either the altitude, speed or maneuverability of the Su-35s comes into play.
Some say it's the best gen. 4 fighter in the world.
From what I've read... the damn thing is almost a flying saucer, able to go Mach 2 sideways with the nose pointed a few degrees askew
Happy Hoosier
(7,083 posts)It might be that the newer avionics allow the pilot to more effectively employ it.
I think where youd rank it depends on what you value, but its a good jet
.. IF it is maintained. As you know, maintaining a Gen 4+ jet is expensive and requires well trained maintenance personnel.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Nevilledog
(50,687 posts)WarGamer
(12,106 posts)A lot of the "punditry" we see on Social Media and TV is usually wrong.
This is just experts describing what is happening, no emotions or cheerleading, just people with a career doing this, talking about it.
Nevilledog
(50,687 posts)It's hard to see such suffering, but escalation without a fucking good reason would result in even worse suffering.