Frances Fukuyama: Really optimistic view of Ukraine War!

[Tomconroy]

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

You know, he might be right. I've tried to figure out how big the Russian Army is and have seen all sorts of numbers. But a lot of conscripts without much training. The elite troops have been committed and apparently badly damaged. If Putin is looking to Syria for 15000 that means he doesn't have Russian professionals left. He has been stalled outside Kyiv for awhile now. A lot of professionals think he doesn't have the numbers to surround Kyiv. He can fire his artillery but if Kyiv can be resupplied from the south Kyiv can hold out for a very long time.
If he sends his tanks in Ukraine has the weapons and hopefully ammo to defeat them as they crawal through the streets. With long vulnerable supply lines to the north the tables may indeed turn.

[qazplm135]

1. or

Russia uses chem or nuke weapons, certainly uses artillery, rockets, missiles and bombs to grind down the cities and strangle off food and water.

I certainly hope it's the former, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that the latter isn't a real possibility and we need to be prepared to increase our assistance to Ukraine as much as necessary.

[70sEraVet]

2. Chem or nuke weapons would definitely trigger a military response from NATO.

It wouldn't exactly be WWIII; Putin has no real allies.

[PortTack]

4. This!

[regnaD kciN]

3. This is the guy who declared "The End of History" in 1992...?

That is, the end-point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.

Yeah…don’t think I’m going to trust his prognostication skills…

[electric_blue68]

5. Kind of my thoughts, too. 😄

[Crunchy Frog]

6. He's an idiot.

He proclaimed the "end of history" after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

I'm very afraid that Putin is simply going to genocide Ukraine.