Interesting analysis on Ukraine by a Chinese expert:

[Tomconroy]

Last edited Sun Mar 13, 2022, 11:23 AM - Edit history (1)

Basically Putin is history and China needs to get on the winning side.

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

The magazine where this was published is a part of the Carter Center. I think they know what and who they are publishing.



Just saw this:

Link to tweet

[femmedem]

1. K&R. Thank you for posting. n/t

[HUAJIAO]

2. Enlightening, thought-provoking article.

Thanks for posting..

[Chainfire]

3. Interesting perspective.

However, all of that logic goes out the window if Putin, in defeat, in a final demonstration of his machismo, decides to take the world with him. Putin needs to go and the Russians need to buy his ticket.

[brush]

6. The question is if Putin is getting close to going over the edge into...

James Bond villain territory. He's got all the tools for it—nukes, biological weapons, ground forces, thousands of tanks, fighter jets— the invasion of Ukraine could easily be the plot of the next Bond film.

Let's hope someone in Russia has the cohones to take him out before he reaches Bondian level villainy.

[Scrivener7]

4. That IS interesting. So I guess watching how China proceeds is one pretty good indication

of how the war will end up.

Also, though, and I know this is naive, there is no consideration whatsoever about the fact that the invasion of Ukraine is simply wrong. It's like listening to Rumsfeld and McNamara. I know that is not how these guys look at things, but it's sad that it isn't.

[brush]

7. "...Rumsfeld and McNamara" is right. Good references to past idiocy.

[BeyondGeography]

5. Alternative title

“Xi fucked up, let me count the ways.”

This is excellent. Thanks for posting.

[hlthe2b]

8. So is anyone in China telling THAT to Xi?

Does HE actually listen to his experts?

[DFW]

12. Took the words out of my mouth

If Xi thinks Putin has sealed his fate, then he ineed probably has. Amazing that a man whose calculating strategizing has kept him in absolute power for nearly a quarter century could make such a monumental mistake. If Putin pulls out anything resembling a victory in this conflict, it will be a Pyrrhic one at best.

[GregariousGroundhog]

14. Xi is accountable to a couple hundred of people

I'm simplifying things, but think of it this way - if the United States ran elections the same way China did, citizens would vote for city alders. City alders (and not every day citizens) would then vote for county alders. The county alders would then vote for state representatives. The state representatives would then vote for congressional representatives. The congressional representatives would then vote for President.

So as long as Xi doesn't upset the central communist party, he can basically do as he pleases. And the people who support Xi can basically do as they please as long as they don't upset the provincial government that sent them. The communists parties at various levels tend to not promote people who rock the boat too hard, so new views are generally slow to trickle up. A certain amount of jingoism also tends to serve party members well, which is why we see Xi attitude toward Taiwan.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. The author starts out saying that China is seriously divided on the war, but....

China is still the one to watch.

[dalton99a]

10. China is broadcasting Putin's bullshit 24/7

Fuck China

[hunter]

15. Words are cheap.

Whichever way this goes, China will end up owning Siberian resources.

Russia is about to suffer Germany's fate after World War II. It will be split into a Chinese administrated zone in the East, and a European - U.S.A. administered zone in the West.

In some ways I think that's been Putin's nightmare since he served as a KGB officer in East Germany. It's ironic he's bringing it upon himself.

[Irish_Dem]

22. Exactly, China is going to turn this to their advantage.

[PortTack]

11. The stage is set for China to be the leading superpower within the next 5-10 yrs

They are not going to let anything get in the way of that. Russia will soon be a failed state in financial default. Why would they tie themselves to that?!!

[Beetwasher.]

13. Lots of Ethnic Chinese/Asians in Current Russian Controlled Territories

Wonder if China feels that some of those areas are historically part of China and the inhabitants sure don't look Russian, and they should just take them back. Might be a good time to do that. Russia seems occupied.

[roamer65]

16. Outer Manchuria.

It used to be a part of China.

If the Chinese retake it, they would own Vladivostok and Sakhalin Island.

The Japanese want the illegally occupied Kuril Islands back as well.

[hunter]

17. I don't think China wants to govern that unruly mob.

They'll extract resources under the pretext of Russian sovereignty.

[Scrivener7]

18. Tom, did you see this thread?:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142887242#post19

[Tomconroy]

19. Thanks! Hope they don't bet on a loser!

[Scrivener7]

20. Me too!

[Irish_Dem]

21. China most certainly will not be stopped by Putin's failures.

Xi will figure a way to make China come out on top.