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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPutin's Worsening Problems
Several analysts think Russia's problems in Ukraine are substantial:
Russias unprovoked war on Ukraine is now entering its third week and the much-anticipated fall of Kyiv, estimated by various Western officials last month to be likely within the space of about 72 hours, has not yet occurred. Nor has Russia managed to sack any major population center. The one city it holds, the provincial capital of Kherson, is restive: Ukrainians turn out daily to protest their armed occupiers, and now fresh reports are trickling in of mass arrests of civilians and anyone thought to have been associated with Ukrainian authorities.
One country in Europe has been bolder in making projections that this war will not end in Putins favor: Estonia, for which Russia has historically been the overriding national security and military preoccupation at all levels of government. On Feb. 28, Mikk Marran, the head of Välisluureamet, Estonias foreign intelligence service, told New Lines that he didnt believe Putin could keep up an intensive war for more than two months and that ultimately Russia will not win this war.
A senior Estonian analyst with years of experience tracking Russias military affairs concurs with that assessment but doesnt even think itll take another two months to bear fruit it already is doing so.
As this source asked to remain anonymous, we will refer to him as Karl.
If Russia does not achieve a remarkable advance by the end of this week, it is difficult to see how [the advance] should come at all, Karl said late this week.
https://newlinesmag.com/argument/putins-worsening-problems/
JustAnotherGen
(31,681 posts)That Putin expected this to be a simple 2-3 day invasion.
He's now sitting at 15 days.
This is turning into Operation Barbarossa.
Can we skip to April 1945?
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Not exactly the Army Corps of Engineers running logistics.
CaptainTruth
(6,546 posts)According to reports citing those that were captured.
To me that's a strong indication Putin expected it to be over in 3 days.
Chainfire
(17,305 posts)Chainfire
(17,305 posts)I suspect that it will get worse before it gets better.
dalton99a
(81,065 posts)Still another problem bedeviling Moscow is its arsenal, which also seems to have been largely the product of Potemkin imagination, according to Karl. Putin was told he had [something like] 10,000 missiles. In fact, he had 1,000. Its peculiar that he didnt remember how he was lying to his own bosses as a young KGB officer. Such lying is common in the culture.
Earlier on March 11, Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, two Russian investigative journalists specializing in the countrys spy agencies, announced the frustration Putin feels against the FSBs foreign intelligence arm, the Service of Operational Information and International Relations, known more commonly as the Fifth Service. Soldatov said, referring to sources inside the FSB, that Putin had placed the head of the service, Sergey Beseda, and his deputy under house arrest.
They named the Fifth Service as responsible for providing Putin with intelligence on political developments in Ukraine on the eve of the invasion: Clearly that intelligence was gravely flawed. It looks like two weeks into the war, it finally dawned on Putin that he was completely misled, Soldatov and Borogan wrote. The department, fearful of his responses, seems to have told Putin what he wanted to hear.
intrepidity
(7,241 posts)A series of long reads worth the effort.
https://democraticunderground.com/100216479040
Lonestarblue
(9,878 posts)How much money intended for military equipment got siphoned off by those further down the chain of corruption? As we saw from our own corrupt president, corruption just begets more corruption.
colorado_ufo
(5,715 posts)calimary
(80,693 posts)IronLionZion
(45,256 posts)about 1/3 of them are still conscripts, they aren't getting food and fuel to the front lines fast enough, and many of them don't want to be there.
Walleye
(30,703 posts)IronLionZion
(45,256 posts)If it weren't for the nukes, NATO could stomp them to the curb pretty quick
Walleye
(30,703 posts)Retired Engineer Bob
(759 posts)Irish_Dem
(45,619 posts)This was supposed to be Blitzkrieg operation.
Putin hoping 3 to 7 days in total.
Astounding article.
Pepsidog
(6,252 posts)are helping a lot. Putin needs a good beating Mussolini style.
calimary
(80,693 posts)And if its true that Putin presumed hed take Kyiv in two or three days and thatd be that, it suggests he had no Plan B. Evidently didnt think hed need one. So hes already at a disadvantage.
PLUS: I remember what Nancy Reagan warned her nemesis Don Regan people are talking. And if thats true, its kind of a kiss-of-death moment. Within days, the gossip against him started cranking up louder and he began to fall out of favor. Reagans cocky swaggering I ran Merrill Lynch Treasury Secretary had become such damaged goods that she soon had his head served on a plate (figuratively speaking, of course).
Over and over were hearing coverage and commentary such that Putin expected hed finish em off in 2-3 days
( and it hasnt turned out that way). Everything is trending upside-down on him. Ukraines valiant President Zelenskyy has defied everybodys expectations and has turned into an international folk hero. The Ukrainians are refusing to follow the Putin playbook of quick-n-easy defeat. And all of that will start piling up. Like a growing assemblage of boulders surrounding Putin and steadily extending higher and higher. Soon theyll be over his head - both literally and figuratively.
This is not trending well for Bad Vlad. No wonder the Chinese havent already jumped in with both feet! Has somebody over there started noticing a whiff of loser-stench?
Walleye
(30,703 posts)Probably the deadliest. The type of guys that say, the word lose is not in my vocabulary.
calimary
(80,693 posts)but also the coverage of all these innocent little kids stricken with cancer and needing treatment and to be moved to a safer facility, it just grabs the heart and makes you cry. HUGELY compelling and sympathetic! And those pictures are NOT HELPFUL to the Russians. It all starts feeding into a shitload of bad juju for them, while elevating the Ukrainians to heroic heights. World-class David-vs-Goliath underdogs! And everybody roots for the underdog anyway.
OMG is this getting sucky for Putin. Calls his whole self-designed fearsome invincible image of Oz, the Great and Powerful into serious question. VERY serious question. Some big ferocious strongman hes turning out to be.
It just does NOT look good, and the longer he struggles to subdue Ukraine, the worse and more impotent hes gonna look.
Pretty soon, EVERYBODYS gonna start smelling the loser-stench.
Random Boomer
(4,159 posts)They demand absolute obedience and become enraged at any news or information that doesn't fit the narrative that suits them. So gradually they weed out all the loyal followers who report the truth and keep only the sycophants who tell them what they want to hear.
Eventually, however, reality will have its way.
gab13by13
(20,864 posts)mysteryowl
(7,323 posts)Traildogbob
(8,571 posts)It will take a very long time to get in there and keep peace with millions of Jewish Natzeeees that are killing all those innocent Ukrainians. Peace takes more than 3 days. Ask the folks next to Israel. Kushner has been working tirelessly for 5 years and counting for peace, a much smaller area. Patience people.
samsingh
(17,571 posts)will try to gaslight and lie about the atrocities committed by putin's russia. we cannot allow that to happen. Ever.
moondust
(19,917 posts)that regardless of the war's outcome millions of Ukrainians are simply NEVER going to accept living under the jackboot of a serial killer who destroyed so much of their country. NEVER.