What's Putin doing? My theory for the day.

[WarGamer]

This is just opinion. Opinions may and certainly DO vary.

My own opinion changes frequently but here's where I'm at today.




I think Kiev is a head fake. Kiev is the shiny object that draws the most cameras and defenders. The Russians are establishing light groups around Ukraine, not for an assault but to tie the defenders down and create chaos.

Look at the actual fighting. Kherson, Mykolaiv, Melitopol, Mariupol, Berdyansk...

What do they have in common? They're all located between the Russian leaning LPR/DPR and Crimea.

IMHO, the Russians are looking to grab the land from LPR/DPR all the way to Kherson in the West and Zaporizhzhia in the North, encompassing all the coast along the Sea of Azov.

This gives the Russians control over the Eastern breakaway provinces, the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia, a land bridge to Crimea, full control of the Sea of Azov.

When the Russians have consolidated the Southeast, they will "threaten" sufficiently to push Zelenskyy to accept a negotiation ceding the land lost in the Southeast to Russia while a literal gun is pointed at Kiev.

Summary: Kiev isn't the strategic target, the Southeast IS. It's a land grab. How long will Zelenskyy fight? Will he negotiate?

Even without negotiation, Russia just annexes the Southeast just like they did Crimea then withdraws from the North and Kiev.

We will see but those are my thoughts on what I THINK the Russians are attempting.

[underpants]

1. Interesting opinion

I think the land bridge to Crimea is important but their advances there might be because it’s within reach of logistics.

[WarGamer]

2. I'm starting to think they have no intention of attacking Kharkiv or Kiev in force.

They're there to tie down the defenders. They will threaten Kiev but only as a "hostage" to force negotiation.

I also think Zelenskyy survives all of this and joins the EU within the decade.

[Calista241]

8. On paper, Kharkiv should have been an easy target.

and the city most likely to side with the Russians in any conflict. The fact that it hasn't, and has hardened its opposition is bad news for the Russians.

Even if Putin declares victory and is able to secure Mariupol and his 'land bridge', he's going to face the insurgency of insurgencies for years. There's going to be a shitload of dead Russians in those provinces, and given the details of the conflict, I'd start to question the loyalties of people there.

[WarGamer]

11. It'll certainly be a clusterfuck.

[Joinfortmill]

3. Makes a lot of sense.

[NCDem47]

4. What's left of democratic Ukarine...

Needs to be made EU and NATO and a major DMZ established on the border with Russia and Belarus. Go all Korea on this border!

[WarGamer]

6. +1000 nt

[Eliot Rosewater]

5. Fuck putin

[WarGamer]

7. indeed

[LakeArenal]

9. Not only an opinion but a seemingly educated one at that.

I agree that Ukraine is a diversionary tactic.

But I didn’t have an idea what his real objective is.

Thanks for the thoughtful post.

It’s sad that you have to explain here now what an opinion is.

[WarGamer]

12. thank you!

[Walleye]

10. His blitzkrieg didn't work, I'm starting to think he actually had no Plan B

[WarGamer]

13. On day 1, certainly looks like there was little plan at all, lol...

[Walleye]

14. My theory is that he was talking to Trump too much

Remember when Pompeo said that Americans don’t care about Ukraine and asked a senior foreign affairs reporter if she could find it on a map? Insult.And for all the people who make fun of Kamala Harris’ laughing, it’s nothing compared to Pompeo’s creepy giggling and chuckling every time he talks about killing and destroying

[anarch]

26. maybe one of the orange fuckstick's many afflictions is contagious

and Putler's mind has been warped from too much interaction with it.

[Walleye]

28. Putin misjudged.He thought a former US president would have a better handle on public sentiment

[2naSalit]

15. I think that your idea...

Is only a component of the entire goal. But I wouldn't be surprised to find it would be considered a consolation prize at some point by pootine.

What I hope is that all of Ukraine, as of 2005 (?), would be restored so that Russia is kicked out of Crimea and the Donbas.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

16. What's the win-win here to avoid WWIII? What saves us from gettin embroiled in yet another conflict?

[WarGamer]

18. Not sure if there IS a win-win.

Even if Russia withdraws from Ukraine but annexes the Southeast, Ukraine is left with a lot of destruction.

I think Russia has learned that in 21st Century combat, they have no chance facing NATO on the field of battle.

I guess it'd be a win if Ukraine (whats left of it) is greeted to the EU and possibly NATO... gets rebuilt nicely and Zelenskyy is their leader.

I don't think we'll see aggressive war from Russia for quite a long time after this... in fact I think Russia has a new and moderate leader within the next 5-ish years.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

20. Hope you're right... I'd take that!!

[peggysue2]

17. Theory-wise this sounds reasonable

As reasonable as anything else I've read and also matches Putin's incursions into former Soviet countries by grabbing land at the edges. An established land bridge would also provide Putin a way to a victorious withdraw, rather than the disastrous, costly screwup that's unfolded.

Of course, the whole invasion is illegal, amoral. Putin is a war criminal regardless. But that doesn't appear to bother the man as long as he gets what he wants.

[WarGamer]

19. agreed.

And if the casualty figures are accurate... what a terrible human price.

[Nevilledog]

21. It's Kyiv. Kiev is what the Russians call it.

[WarGamer]

23. You're right... in 2019 the Board on Geographic names changed it

Only a few million maps and documents to change because every English language map has KIEV for what, several hundred years?

Funny side story.

My name doesn't exist in Russian. So my travel documents always had the "phonetic" spelling of my name.

Yes I've been to Russia 2x because my former employer has relationships there (mid 00's)

[Doc Sportello]

22. Good analysis based on knowledge

I hope you are right for one reason. That scenario seems to be one in which there would be much less loss of life than the one that is going on now.

Also, the POS could claim that was his intention all along and pretend it wasn't the clusterfuck that it is.

[maxsolomon]

24. Agreed - he's taking Novorossiya back.

Everything the Communists "gave" to the Ukraine Socialist Republic last century:



I think he will take Odesa as well - the entire coast.

[WarGamer]

25. and THAT... adds the historical background.

In fact, thinking back to Putins speech after the invasion, referencing Lenin giving away land... this is it.

You've added the context that gives me more confidence in my theory.

[bluestarone]

27. My thoughts here. POOTY, i think has made this a personal war between him and Zelensky

He wants him DEAD! (one of his biggest objectives i think)

[lagomorph777]

29. Thank you for very good points to ponder (and educational thread).

I think Pootie really wants all of Europe, for starters.

But you are likely quite correct about his near-term goal.

[WarGamer]

30. THANKS! The BEST things to come out of this war, IMHO...

The Russian Military will leave Ukraine, humiliated and neutered.

And I think Russia sees a new and moderate leader in the next few years.

[lagomorph777]

31. I think maybe you need a comma.

"The Russian Military will leave Ukraine humiliated and neutered."

says the exact opposite of:

"The Russian Military will leave Ukraine, humiliated and neutered."

[WarGamer]

32. lol... you are PRECISELY right!!

[JHB]

33. I disagree, at least partially

The initial goal of Kyiv was to decapitate the Ukrainian government and install a puppet. While he wasn't able to just sweep in as planned, it's still important for him to disable it, for practical and symbolic reasons.

Also keep in mind that even early on, an apparent goal was seizing the entire Black Sea coastline and turning any remnant Free Ukraine into a land-locked state.

The current fighting is consistent with those scenarios, without any "head fakes".