General Mud wins a skirmish for Ukraine!

[Tomconroy]

Just putting this one up because it made me feel good!

Link to tweet

[The Unmitigated Gall]

1. Keep 'em safe (I know, I don't have to say)

Maybe use them eventually to help cut Pootler’s land corridor along the Black Sea/Azov.

Armchair general, signing off.

[lagomorph777]

2. Ukraine is becoming a gigantic glue trap for Pootie's rats.

[WarGamer]

3. no "Z" markings?

[Brother Buzz]

5. I'd like to think Ukrainians removed them, posthaste.

[ColinC]

4. Another poster called it a couple days ago.

https://democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=16472915

With the warming temperatures it was bound to happen. Do Russians not check the forecast?

[SergeStorms]

12. They never expected it to last this long.

Pootie expected a cake walk. Pootie was wrong. Pootie is in a world of 💩💩💩💩.
I do not feel sorry for Pootie at all. I hope Pootie dies beneath a huge pile of 💩💩💩💩.

[not fooled]

35. And if he delayed his invasion until after the Olympics

to cater to Xi, then dictator etiquette sure was a fail here.

Although the Authoritarian Olympics served a useful purpose, in this case.

(edited to add that I posted before seeing that several posters below had already commented on this angle).

[mitch96]

42. "Pootie expected a cake walk", Yup, and he got stuck in the frosting...nt

[Irish_Dem]

19. As I recall, Russia has a short weather window.

Apparently they thought it would be over quickly.

[ColinC]

20. Don't wish to be them. Those highs and lows are brutal. high of 40s tomorrow, and low of 20s.

I expect more tanks to get stuck.

[Irish_Dem]

21. 40's means melting snow making more mud.

[ColinC]

25. Yep

very, very nice.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

6. Idiotic ru military timed invasion in spring thaw...and its been a cold slow thaw.

I live where spring thaw takes a month…the countryside and fields are glue to anything heavy.

[Torchlight]

7. Rasputitsa 2022

“If you have a 40-to-70-ton vehicle where all of its weight is focused on a two-foot wide piece of steel or metal, it’ll just sink when confronted with mud or soft terrain in general,” he explained.

That “two-foot-wide piece of metal” refers to the tracks that tanks use to move. Another function of those tracks is to spread out the vehicle’s enormous weight as much as possible, but they can’t disperse the tank’s weight enough to keep it from sinking into the soft earth, especially in an eastern European country like Ukraine.

“That’s something I expected for that part of the world,” said the Marine mechanic. “Eastern Europe is either frozen or it’s fucking muddy, that’s just how it is.”

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russian-tanks-stuck-mud-ukraine/


(Task & Purpose is an American publication founded in 2014. It primarily covers the United States Armed Forces, and defense more generally)

[Lonestarblue]

8. Perhaps hiding tanks amid trees was not such a good idea after all!

[Irish_Dem]

22. They couldn't keep them out in the open, too dangerous.

So they had to take cover, but now what a mess.

[paleotn]

33. That's where the mud is....

Well, everywhere but pavement is where the mud is. Same thing going on here in northern New England. Can't cheat mud season, Vladimir.

[Ray Bruns]

9. I always said the Russians needed to invade in early February or wait until june

like the germans did for the ground to dry.

[erronis]

15. Think I read that Chinese xi asked putin to hold off invasion until after winter olympics

Couple of brilliant idiots. All that wisdom from centuries of fighting wars overridden by a couple of bloated egos.

[Irish_Dem]

23. I was going to post the same thing. Xi asked Putin to wait.

Until after the Winter Olympics.

Putin should have waited until summer then?

What idiots.

[erronis]

27. There's also the hypothesis that Xi did this on purpose - miring putin in the mud and removing

ground forces from being able to engage in another Sino-Soviet war. Mongolia and Siberia in the Chinese cross-hairs?

So many speculations, some with a bit of basis.

The war planners like to scope tons of possibilities. Used to be human analysts and maps and history texts. Now it's AI.

But the bosses at the top still have the final say.

[Irish_Dem]

29. Interesting idea.

I'm not sure I buy the idea that Xi deliberately set up Putin. They are allied in their mutual quest to shift global power in their favor. And the Putin humiliation only hurts Xi's goal of invading Taiwan.

That said, anything is possible. Maybe Xi thought Putin was a problem and this is one way for China to emerge as the sole 21st century superpower. I guess this idea doesn't surprise me now that I think about it.

[erronis]

32. Check out this thread on EmptyWheel -

https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/03/14/on-the-benefits-of-having-a-career-diplomat-run-cia-this-is-one-information-war-that-i-think-putin-is-losing/#comment-926553

The Russian request for Chinese arms is a key data point IMHO. While in many cases the two militaries share arms it’s not universal. Note also that the Russian military colossus’ reputation was predicated upon the idea (expressed by the Chinese as the ‘golden pebble’) of overwhelming conventional strength. What we are seeing is the effects of diverting the military budget to oligarch thefts, much like late Romanov Russia. Putin’s dream of the USSR apparently included the ‘they pretend to pay us so we pretend to work’ social contract and all of the quotas would magically be filled. That Russia is even asking for Syrian ‘volunteers’ or help from the PRC could be seen as Russia saving troops for something more important or Russia running out of gas.

Much of the chatter I see is premised upon the idea that the PRC wants Russia to prevail to help have a free hand in Taiwan. I’m not so sure of that, so here’s my totally speculative scenario. At the Olympics opening ceremony, Xi gave Putin the green light and promises of assistance so Putin would be bogged down in Ukraine or (even better) bogged down by fighting NATO. That means Xi would have a free hand in the Far East. Where would Xi go? My bet is not Taiwan because both Taiwan and Japan can inflict much damage to the units that make it past the USN’s Seventh Fleet. The returns would not be quick enough to cover the PLA-N’s losses. However, if Putin is truly unable to even cover his Ukraine adventure’s logistics then the Russian problem of holding Siberia becomes even more tempting to the PRC. Siberia has oil needed by the PLA, and it would be doubtful that much assistance will go to Russia to stop such an attack. Attacks on Taiwan, in the South China Sea or on South Korea would also invite intervention by the rest of the world. So, I think Putin’s Russia is Xi’s true target.

Let’s also consider the idea that Xi sends arms over to Putin. I would expect that any computerized system will have ‘back doors’ built in to render those systems useless when the PLA sends the appropriate signals. The Russian attention to these kinds of details (as highlighted by their taking out the cell towers needed for their comms) is a continuation of the Czarist tradition where messages had to be sent in the clear for the Germans to plan the Battle of Tannenberg (they didn’t have enough code books then). I do not think the Russians would even look for the code anomalies much less know what to do about them.

So, if Xi said ‘no’ as has been reported then the trap for Putin and Siberia has been laid.

[Zorro]

38. Yes. China may end up being the biggest winner here.

Lots of empty Siberian land right across China's border, hundreds of millions of Chinese. That's what I'm thinking, too.

[Irish_Dem]

40. My God, what a brilliant, but diabolical plan.

If indeed Xi knew ahead of time that Putin was going to make such a mess of things, he might well have set him up to make matters even worse.

If Xi's real goal has been Russia all along, Taiwan is just a distraction, what better way than to push Putin into a badly devised invasion. Putin is bogged down and bankrupt.

China's goal is to be a 21st century superpower, now it would not have to share the power with Russia. And get Siberian oil.

China is certainly capable of making such a plan. And it wouldn't have to do any heavy lifting at all. Just brain power.

[wnylib]

10. Isn't this what happened to Nazi troops

when they tried to cross into Russia?

Don't Russians study history?

[monkeyman1]

28. very much so ! nazi's panzers were so heavy, just sank in a little bit of mud !

[Irish_Dem]

30. Right, you can see pics online of German WWII tanks in the mud

as they approach Russia.

[wnylib]

34. I'm remembering the scene

from War and Remembrance.

[Irish_Dem]

41. Yes, like Herman Wouk scene by scene. :(

[paleotn]

37. Vlad figured they'd just be mopping up at this point...

per captured documents, the whole thing was supposed to last 15 days tops.

[wnylib]

39. Well, they ARE mopping ...

mud off of themselves and their vehicles.

[calimary]

11. All's fair in love, war, and winter weather!

[Paper Roses]

13. Too bad it was not quicksand. n/t

[Thomas Hurt]

14. I don't think they have a clue where they are going...or the soldiers are doing it on purpose.

[ffr]

16. Even Mother Nature hates murderous Russians

[Scalded Nun]

17. About every (or almost every) country knows what happens to invading forces in and around Russia

Maybe Russia has not figured that out from an invader's POV.

[SheltieLover]

18. Yaaaaaay!

[cos dem]

24. Didn't Napoleon figure this out?

And wasn't it a major factor in his inability to hold Moscow? You'd think a Russian would know this.

[WVreaper]

26. Mud puppies

they are not.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

31. Mud? I remember Harcourt Fenton Mudd ...

Nice uniform, but he probably wouldn't be of much use in Ukraine

[AZLD4Candidate]

36. Generals Disorder, Chaos, Desertion, and L. O'Morale have commanded victories for Ukraine too.