Putin may not be as stupid as people think

[Cheezoholic]

IMO This invasion is way more than Russian nationalism and Putins philosophy that Ukraine is a part of Russia no matter what. Its way more than that. Its a further effort to destabilize democracies in not only Europe but here also. Eastern European democracies are as tentative as our own. Most of them elected their own version of Trump in the last 4 or 6 years. Those that got elected were driven by nationalism after the Arab spring and especially after the geocide in Syria, driving huge populations of refugees into European countries. The same philosophy is at play here. Putin doesn't care how many people die, hes betting odds on people that give a shit, that will take refugees. He's played the racism for refugees from the middle east, now he's driving a refugee crisis into countries that are prepped with nationalist leaders, but now building on the ancient divides of central Europe. How long do you think Poland, Romania, Hungary, 2 out of three have a nationalist leader, are going to tolerate Ukrainian refugees.? These are the complexities of this. Is Zelenski going to be forced to succumb to Putins demands 6 months from now because the border countries are going to be faced with internal turmoil from their right wing parties over refugees? Putins strategy may be that. Of course he doesn't care how many die to get there, but it is his ultimate goal, and the goal of fascists worldwide. We are and have been in world war. This could be the first true blood drawn for freedom.

[zaj]

1. Yep, he's rerunning the Syrian immigration crisis playbook...

It's a 2-fer.

[C_U_L8R]

2. Or he's just stupid.

I used to think Putin was some kind of Bond-villain genius but I've come to discover he's more of a mean spirited Donald Trump dullard. A megalomaniac playing 3D chess doesn't go to war with a rag tag army running on 30 year old rations. The results are speaking for themselves. Putin has succeeded in setting Russia back generations. There is no win for Putin here.

[PortTack]

7. Agree completely!

I would add, this whole thing of getting 40k Syrian soldiers...oh sure. Russian can’t feed, outfit and supply it’s own forces, or, pay them. The Syrians aren’t going to come armed. 40k is approx 1/3 of the force currently fighting.

To say nothing of the fact that our intelligence says they have seen nothing to indicate that kind of troop movement.

[brush]

9. Agreed. The Dunning-Kruger effect is in effect with Putin.

A ragtag army with outdated, 30-year-old rations expected to win quickly in a rout?

Please.

[anarch]

10. unless that wasn't his intention, and he just (for now) wants the Donbas region

and some kind of promise from Ukraine of de-militarization and/or a vow to never join NATO, as a buffer between Russia and Western Europe--a new Iron Curtain. If he got all that I bet he'd declare victory and mostly stop murdering civilians. Of course he would also continue to work at the same time via cyber warfare, social engineering, etc. to undermine Western democracies and keep trying to expand Russian influence and power, which he has been doing all along.

It certainly seems evident that he doesn't care how many people die (his own troops, civilians, whoever), and he's just throwing cannon fodder and old equipment into it like an angry drunk person smashing up their own house and family or something, but he probably figures it's either use the equipment or destroy it, so why not just use it to fuck up the whole world order and remind everyone that you're a tough bastard who is not to be trifled with, etc.?

He's definitely evil, if not also some form of crazy/stupid. He's always been at war with everything that would oppose his absolute control of the whole planet.

[brush]

14. The bastard wouldn't need a buffer zone between Russia and neighboring...

Last edited Wed Mar 16, 2022, 04:29 PM - Edit history (1)

countries if neighboring countries didn't have to continue to band together to stop him from taking them over.

Nations all over the world live peacefully side-by-side without trying to take each other over.

What a concept, Putin.

[anarch]

15. well sure, under the post-WWII world order--but he's not into that

He has more of a 19th century imperialist mindset, and believes he has some kind of divine right to rule over the whole planet, and that the only rights anyone has are the rights granted to them by their ability to conquer or destroy others.

[brush]

16. Yep, I was thinking it was a 1930s Hitler thru 1950s Stalin/Khrushchev...

mind set but you're right. It goes back to the 19th century, warring tribes of Europe era where some conflict was always jumping off.

[PdamnedQ]

3. Although, I believe there is merit in your points

I can not believe that Putin is going to wake up, any morning soon, and think to himself, "This is a wonderful day! Everything is going according to my masterful plan."

I think he does not know whether to go shit, or go blind.

[BootinUp]

4. Putin will be having his own problems and soon. Very soon.

[herding cats]

5. I suspect the refugee crisis is how Putin consoles himself.

It's real, and it's become painfully obvious he's trying to escalate it now. Just look at his blatant assaults on civilians since he wasn't greeted as a "liberator" by a terrified populace. Since he didn't 'win' an easy victory in Ukraine in a couple of weeks, he's pivoted.

However, I seriously doubt this was his plan A. It's a backup chaos plan to assuage his damaged ego.

[czarjak]

6. Proof-positive he's stupid enough.

[DFW]

8. Destabilizing the west, e.g. Brexit and Trump, is definitely a goal

This becomes especially urgent for Putin as weakness in his military is shown up in the slow going of his invasion of Ukraine. It has to hurt that he thinks he need Syrian mercenaries to fight his battles for him.

But he must also know that the closest language to Ukrainian is Polish, and a huge, motivated Ukrainian community there will be a breeding ground for the education and training of a huge force that can easily infiltrate and exit the Ukrainian-Polish border with ease, and cause his occupation forces untold grief. Any Ukrainian puppet installed as a Putin-friendly “leader” will have a huge target painted on his back, and he’ll know it. I wouldn’t take that job with twenty full time bodyguards.

[malaise]

11. Wealthy white men,politicians and their goons have been undermining democracy in the US from day one

Sure social media means folks from anywhere can promote misinformation, but US problems are home made, including the failed coup.

[Silent3]

12. Putin is much smarter than, say, Trump (a very low bar for comparison)

I still don't think this invasion is working out anywhere near as well as Putin would have liked, however. Putin might be able to turn a refugee crisis to his advantage as a consolation prize, but I still think Putin thought he could waltz into Ukraine and subjugate it without Ukrainians being driven to flee in large numbers.

I don't think he expected the strength of NATO unity and the severity of economic sanctions.

I certainly don't think Putin wanted the weakness of his military to be exposed as it has been -- weakness that perhaps he didn't himself understand until now. We still have to fear Russia's nukes (no small concern), but as a conventional fighting force, we're discovering how Putin's culture of corruption has eaten away at Russia's military strength.

[brush]

17. Yep, yep, yep. His army is a joke, not the big, bad Russian bear...

ready to maul other countries like it seemed to be before being exposed in this Ukraine blunder.

It looks to me like Putin peaked with his behind-the-scenes Brexit and trump maneuverings which made him look brilliant. But hell, anybody can look brilliant next to trump. It went to his head and now that he's thrown his ill-equipped and ill-prepared army out there, it's all falling apart.

He's no genius. No one should take trump's word for anything.

[Buckeyeblue]

13. At least for now, though, NATO is quite united

If this lasts for 6 more months, we'll see if that's still the case. I don't believe Russia can maintain this for that long.

I think initially Putin had bad intelligence that made him believe Ukraine would roll over. I actually think part of his strategy in putting so many troops on the boarder ahead of time was to get a settlement before even invading.

When it turned out that Ukraine was not going to back down, and even more, were capable of putting up a fight, I think the strategy changed to wreck the country. People no longer have homes to go back to. And Ukraine-- and the world--are left to pick up the pieces.

I think another big problem is what happens to Russia? I think Russia has burned many world wide bridges that will take many years to rebuild. At some point we will have to reckon with Russia directly.