Escalating fears that Putin might do something crazy

[Yorkie Mom]

Escalating fears that Putin might do something crazy

A brief note on a very strange day

Molly McKew

This article is an excerpt of a longer piece that will be posted shortly on Great Power — but given the strange events of the past 18 hours or so, including Putin’s “fifth column” speech from the bunker and a lot of strange flight traffic out of Moscow to points east and south, I wanted to post this section now. Maybe, sitting in Estonia as I write this, it just looks worse from here and will come to nothing. But, something feels … not great. This excerpt examines how to think about what previously seemed unthinkable, and urges us to be prepared for every eventuality. Not to engage in a cycle of escalation — but to decisively end it when the moment comes.

I think there are two points worth dwelling on.

First, there will always be fresh terror from Putin. A show trial. Chernobyl. Chem/bio insinuations. Sometimes I feel we go looking for new terror to control us when there is already terror enough. Until we take control of the pacing and strategy of this war, the fears Putin creates for us are boxing us in. This has been the Russian strategy from the start. I don’t know why we are not more clear on this. It is the clear reason why we have so much intelligence on what they planned to do and what it would look like. Because they wanted the White House to see it, because they knew what the likely reaction would be. And they were right. We put ourselves into the box and took actions off the table that could have changed the outcome. We accepted the stage that Putin set. We still are. I will always believe that this is the wrong course of action. It has led us to this situation where Putin seems to be unraveling and the danger increasing before our eyes.

This fear is absolutely useless. “Russian warship, go f*ck yourself” must be the mandatory attitude of whoever will lead us through this confrontation with Putin.

Second, on nukes and Putin’s nuclear blackmail. Putin is a coward — by which I mean, he is not brave. He plans and acts in ways where he believes he has the greatest advantage and will endure the least costs for the greatest rewards. He does take risks — when there is empty space before him into which he can move before an opponent can. But he is not the type to die bravely and nobly in heroic sacrifice for his nation — as evidenced by his broadcasts from a bunker in the Urals (or wherever).

... snip
We are approaching an end stage where the only possible way out is a military defeat of Putin — a strategic defeat of Putin, before everything unravels too far to stop a worse calamity. Are we ready for that? Not on old paper plans, but in our minds? It is imperative that we stop reacting, and start to set the terms, while this is still possible.

We must stop being afraid of Putin — as the Ukrainians have done. It is the only way ahead.

More: https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might?s=w

Link to tweet

[BeyondGeography]

1. Not a coward but he lives off cowardice

Hate to quote Thatcher but it’s no time to go wobbly. Ukrainians, as noted, have shown the way.

[Igel]

2. Yup.

That was true in 2014.

In 2008, too, to be honest.

He's a bully. An ideological, nationalist bully, but a bully. Coddle a bully and you get more bully-shit.

[czarjak]

3. If he can't have it, nobody can, is a dangerous place for us to be...

"It's not Russia, I don't know why it would be". Total Pawn!

[JohnSJ]

4. It isn't about fear, Molly McKew, it is about trying to keep an alliance together, and

preventing a nuclear war that you are so cavalier about because you believe Putin is a “coward”

It was that kind of arrogance that almost caused a nuclear confrontation over Cuba

Fortunately, we had leaders who didn’t try to call someone’s bluff

[PortTack]

5. You are sooo right. I really wish this author would consider she doesn't have the whole picture!

[JohnSJ]

9. +++

[Disaffected]

7. Absolutley correct.

[orwell]

10. If you look into Molly McKew...

...you will see that there is not a lot of "there" there.

She has a lot of Twitter followers but she is more a glorified lobbyist than a political or military analyst.

She seems to love writing this bellicose screed.

I read one piece by her that people were touting as "important" and came away with an impression that she was very quick on the bravado and very loose with the "analysis".

Your take is spot on by the way. Putin's whole game here is to break up the Western Alliance.

He obviously doesn't give a shit about Ukraine.

Following McKew's "advice" would deliver Putin exactly what he is trying to achieve.

[JohnSJ]

13. Thanks for her background

[Calculating]

11. Uh

Our leaders did call their bluff back then. Get the missiles off cuba or else...

[JohnSJ]

14. It was no "calling their bluff". Thank goodness it never got that far.

It was only through backroom negotiations that the situation was defused. It was the reporter John A. Scali who was the go between that the Kennedy administration used to try to defuse the situation, by engaging in negotiations with Moscow.

There were parties on both sides who were itching to pull the trigger. Curtis E. Lemay among others were pushing for us to do a first strike, and Castro along with other Soviet counter parts felt the same way on the Soviet side.

In fact, it was after the shooting down of Rudolf Anderson Jr. plane over Cuba, that our military leaders recommended to Kennedy to launch airstrikes against Cuba. In addition, Moscow already had nearly 100 smaller, fully operational nuclear weapons on the island, which would have been enough to eliminate U.S. forces and escalate the conflict into unprecedented territory. Fortunately Kennedy resisted that recommendation, and pursued a negotiated path, which involved very tense negotiations that resulted in an agreement.

Khrushchev would remove the offensive weapons in Cuba in exchange that the US would not invade Cuba again. Also, as part of that agreement, but not made public at the time, the US would remove all Jupiter MRBMs in Turkey against the Soviet Union.

[David__77]

6. I'm glad Biden doesn't have this position.

…

[MineralMan]

8. I do not believe a word Molly McKew writes.

Nope.

[orwell]

15. An astute observation...

...she is more lobbyist than analyst.

https://medium.com/@DustinGiebel/molly-mckew-information-warfare-expert-96ce6829df1b

[Yorkie Mom]

17. That was a hit piece.

Keep digging.

[orwell]

18. How about this...

https://thehoya.com/adjunct-professors-qualifications-questioned-colleagues/

[Yorkie Mom]

20. OK

I don't know a lot about her, but I won't dismiss her because she was a foreign lobbyist.

[yagotme]

12. "Might???"

He already has. He invaded a neighboring country with too little, too late. He refuses (so far) to realize this, and keeps adding fuel to the fire. Someone that has done something crazy in the near past, may well do so again.

[tavernier]

16. I think Biden's military advice comes from people

who are far more experienced and educated in military strategy than Molly McKew. I think I’ll go with his/their judgement.

[Mr.Bill]

19. The premise that Putin knows exactly what he is doing

and how we will react is ridiculous. Putin had no idea of the mess he was stepping into.

[uponit7771]

21. Putrid is an asshole he's not suicidal, he doesn't want *HIS* world to burn