Minnesota Poll: Obama leading, but Romney sees gains

[cali]

As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent -- a lead within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat's advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

Independents, on the other hand, are leaning more toward Obama. Barely a third supported him last month, but that number has grown to 43 percent. Romney's support among independents remains virtually unchanged, with 13 percent of that group remaining undecided

<snip>

http://www.startribune.com/local/176113071.html?refer=y

[Atman]

1. Isn't the media's narrative quite clear?

Romney is LOSING, Obama is WINNING, but all we ever hear about is Romney's "momentum," and "making gains," but we never hear it described as Obama maintaining an advantage, Obama in the lead, Romney failing to make up the necessary ground, etc.

WE'RE DOOOOOOOOOMED!

[cali]

2. Sorry, Media aside, the polls are narrowing in swing states

I see this as a close election that could see mittshit in the WH. Now, I'm hoping that won't happen and that the ground game will make the difference in Ohio and Wisconsin and elsewhere, but I'm not buying into the "we're blowing them away" meme. I'll continue phone banking and hoping, but I'm not going to tell myself that I don't see what I see.

[Atman]

5. I didn't say "blowing them away." What does narrowing mean?

Obama is still leading and has held quite steady. Romney picks up a point or two, always less than MOE, never enough to take the lead, and suddenly the media is giddy about "surges" and "momentum." It's never about Obama still leading.

A long term, fairly consistent lead is not statistically insignificant. Romney, after all this time, has simply failed to take a national lead. So he's "narrowed" the gap among some demographics, by what, a point?

Excuse me for not panicking. That's exactly what the GOP-corporate-media wants. Stay away, no point in voting, be depressed! Screw that...work harder, get pumped, GOTV!

[coalition_unwilling]

14. It's racism and classism, plain and simple. Romney is the great white dope. Also,

note that pre-2007, the Star-Tribune was part of the McClatchy chain, the only major print media chain to expose decisively Bush's lies about Iraq BEFORE the invasion of Iraq began, i.e., when it mattered.

After 2007, ownership of Star-Tribune has changed hands more than once, so new owners may be right-wing goombahs.

[bigtree]

3. the article clearly shows that romney's support is stagnant in that state; as it is elsewhere

. . . with about a 2-3 point advantage for Pres. Obama.

The remarkable thing has been just how consistently the president has held the lead in these 'battleground' states. For ANY other candidate, this would be reported as a likely lock on the vote. The 'undecideds aren't polling in numbers which could cause provide dramatic shift toward Romney. Peeling off existing Obama support doesn't look likely, either. What, he 'cut into Obama's advantage among women? Wishful thinking to imagine that will amount to anything significant.

What they should be writing about is the surge in enthusiasm and numbers of minority early voters. I believe they're going to have to forget about counting on some lower level of enthusiasm from these voters. I haven't seen it yet.

[cali]

4. I sincerely hope you're right.

I can't imagine Minn. going for romney.

[erik satie]

6. Oh for pete's sake

Minnesota voted Republican only once in the last 60 years.

[treestar]

17. Amen.

The "tightening" word is gold to the media! They will use the slightest statistic to back it up.

[Norbert]

7. Small Sampling

only 800 sampled. This couldn't be right. Even Rasmussen had O at +5 earlier this week and that was on the low end. Minnesota is solid blue.

[CreekDog]

8. again, all you do is read one poll and start ignoring all the others

what are we going to do with you?

jeez.

[CatWoman]

20. it is rather annoying

AND sickening.......

[MineralMan]

9. A sample of 800 "likely voters?"

Really. Wait until November 7, and see how that all works out for Romney in Minnesota.

Uff da! as we say here. Or as some of us say here. You're buying into the media's effort to keep things looking close so they can make more money off this election.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Looks like some people are settling 2008 scores and desperately want Romney to win

It's deeply sad that some people would have such a profound emotional investment in Obama losing.

The old 2008 primary battlers coming out of the woodwork in a pro-Romney fashion has been, without doubt, one of the more despicable aspects of these last few weeks. These people have no values to speak of.

[Dan]

13. Laughter...

emotional investment sure, smells like desire for advertisement dollars.., there is money to be made in a "close" race... hahaha

[Puglover]

15. Agreed.

Romney doesn't have a chance in hell here.

However I don't agree on one thing. "Uff da" I have lived in Minneapolis for 36 years and I have never once heard anyone seriously use that term. Did they even use it in "Fargo"?

[MineralMan]

16. If you hang around Norskies, you'll hear it.

All of my wife's relatives here use it frequently.

[eqfan592]

19. Yep. I'm from Wisconsin originally, but knew enough folks from Minn. to know that saying. nt

[IVoteDFL]

22. My grandma and my bf's mom say it

but they are obviously on the older side.

[IVoteDFL]

10. When they bring up the poll from last month that said Obama up 8

was it by the same polling standards or what? I have a really hard time believing that Romney made that much progress here. I haven't seen ONE sign for Romney, and out of the two Republicans I know, at least one wont vote for Romney because they "don't trust Mormons"


It's very hard to believe that Romney gained that much ground here. There is nothing to reflect that.

[MineralMan]

18. There are three Obama yard signs on my block alone in St. Paul.

One of them I can see on my front lawn right this minute. I haven't seen any Romney signs in my neighborhood.

[IVoteDFL]

21. I live in an apartment in N. SP so not a ton of yard signs

I see a lot of bumper stickers in the parking lot. Lots of Obama and "no" stickers out there. It's a very urban area, but there is zero support for Romney here. I've got my stickers up in the window, I live on the ground floor right next to the main door so they get a lot of visibility!

I also ride the city bus pretty much everywhere. Every route that I take goes through Obama/no territory.


My mom's boyfriend is the only boner that comes around supporting Romney, but he's a complete racist and a bit of a misogynist too. I wouldn't expect him to vote for anyone else.

[Brickbat]

12. Romney has no Minnesota-based staff. When it comes time to GOTV, the numbers will be closer to the

8-10 point Obama advantage because he has actual people on the ground.

[0rganism]

23. was the previous 8pt. lead among "likely voters"?

I wouldn't be surprised if the report chose to compare a "registered voters" poll from last month to a recent "likely voters" poll just to fit the preferred narrative.

OR the "likely voter" model could have been "updated" as well. Since it's a subjective weighting to begin with, there's no reason to keep it the same from month to month.