Is Ohio tied?

[cali]

The Plain Dealer has a new poll out that has it tied 49-49. Their last poll had the President up by 5. Nate Silver has explained that it's hard to see rMoney winning Ohio because, to date, he hasn't led in that state.

There have been a lot of expressions here and articles out there that call bullshit on momentum for rMoney. I just don't know. But I'm not happy about the latest state polls I'm seeing.

I hope I'm a fool to be worried and that you guys will mock me mercilessly- after an Obama win

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/10/ohio_presidential_poll.html

[piechartking]

1. Don't worry...

For what it's worth, the poll was conducted before the 3rd debate.

[winstars]

3. Saw that at Kos, its a week old poll that somehow is released today...

It was conducted from Oct 18-23, the debate was the 22nd... More uselessness from the MSM!!!

Of course this fact is buried in the article linked above...

[spanone]

15. released today because it plays into the meme that romney is surging and ohio is 'tied'

[Motown_Johnny]

2. a tie is within the margin of error for Pres. Obama's ~2% lead

so I would just look at this poll that way.

[Jennicut]

4. I would trust CNN's poll more. It was done entirely after the debate and Obama is up by 4%.

This poll was done before the debate. It started on the 18th. 11 days ago is a really long time. At the end of an election, a week or more is a huge difference. Even the right leaning ARG and Purple Strategies had Obama up by 2% after the third debate. The poll also has a strange mix, with very little independents sampled. 10% is very small.

In other words, I wouldn't worry about it.

[Dalai_1]

5. This poll was a collaboration of

the following Ohio newspapers...

The telephone poll – which used both land lines and cell phones – of 1,015 likely voters across Ohio from Oct. 18 through Oct. 23 has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Other sources of error are possible, such as non-response bias. The response rate was 19.47 percent

The poll was financed solely by the Ohio Newspaper Organization.
This poll is part of a continuing collaboration among Ohio’s eight largest newspapers: The Dayton Daily News, (Cleveland) Plain Dealer, Cincinnati Enquirer, Columbus Dispatch, Akron Beacon Journal, The (Toledo) Blade, Canton Repository and The (Youngstown) Vindicator. The newspapers have been working together for several years to report on issues important to Ohioans. The poll was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.

Source:http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121028/NEWS010601/310280047&Ref=AR?gcheck=1&nclick_check=1

[chimpymustgo]

6. Cali, who knows? The MSM has decided its narrative; the polls are used/manipulated? to affirm it.

This is a very scary time - possibly preceding something even more frightening.

[RomneyLies]

7. Hae you ever posted good news here? nt

[morningfog]

8. Nope, not tied. In addition to the fact that Obama has never trailed

in OH poll aggregates, Obama has a nice cushion from the massive early voting effort. He can go in on Election day polling at around 46% (possibly less) and still come out with a clear win.

[michello]

9. That's what I was asking in the other post like this one..

So this doesn't factor in the early voting right? I didn't see it anywhere in the article.

[Maeve]

10. A tie sells more newspapers

Altho I'm ready to chuck the papers altogether (except Sunday, for the coupons and the comics!).

And frankly, as many damned polls as we've had here in Ohio, I'm surprised they got almost 20% to respond!

[RomneyLies]

11. Maintaining swing state status brings in millions of dollars in ad revenue

for the entire state, too.

[Maeve]

12. Not to mention the boost in antacid sales! eom

[edhopper]

13. Looking at the aggregate polls on TPM

the more recent ones have Obama with a 2% to 4% lead.

[ProSense]

14. That same poll had McCain ahead in October 2008

Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain, Obama in 'dead heat' for state's electoral votes

<...>

Boosted by growing concern about the Wall Street meltdown and Main Street credit freeze, Sen. Barack Obama is closing the gap for Ohio's 20 electoral votes in next month's presidential election, according to the latest Ohio Newspaper Poll.

The Illinois Democrat now trails Republican Sen. John McCain by two percentage points -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.3 percent.

"It's a statistical dead-heat," said Eric Rademacher, interim co-director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, which surveyed 876 likely voters across the state Oct. 4-8.
<...>

The first poll, conducted Sept. 12-16, showed McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 42 percent, with 5 percent of the respondents saying they'd vote for independent Ralph Nader or Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided.

http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/10/ohio_poll_mccain_obama_in_dead.html

Nov 3 poll:

Cincinnati, OH--The final Ohio Poll for the 2008 election season finds Senator Barack Obama likely to win Ohio’s 20 electoral votes.

After allocation of undecided voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, the presidential race in Ohio stands at Illinois Senator Barack Obama 51.5 percent, Arizona Senator John McCain 45.7 percent, and Other 2.8 percent.

These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. One thousand three hundred eight (1,308) probable voters were interviewed between October 29 and November 2, 2008.

In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 2.7 percent.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op110308.pdf

That's a huge swing.

Frankly, the 10 percent independent sample in the current poll makes it bogus.

“Independents are now more evenly split between Obama and Romney than was the case in the first poll,” said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, which conducted the poll for a consortium of major Ohio newspapers, including the Beacon Journal. They tilted slightly toward Obama, 46 to 44 percent, after leaning toward Romney 54-25 in the earlier poll. (Because of the small number of independents in the poll, the margin of error is plus or minus 10 percent.)

http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/presidential-race-tied-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.345675

Obama took a significant lead away from Romney among independents and is tied?

Still, here's the kicker, it corresponds with this:

Enquirer presidential endorsement: Mitt Romney
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121028/EDIT01/310280050/Enquirer-presidential-endorsement-Mitt-Romney

The paper endorsed McCain in 2008:

Endorsement: McCain for President
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20081024/EDIT03/810260303

[B Calm]

16. We have reason to worry cali,

I think they are getting ready to steal another election! Got to make it look close, that way people will not question the e voting machines total tally!

[lonestarnot]

17. Damn straight they are going to attempt a cheat.

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. The usual

[OhioChick]

19. Obama is up by 3-4 in Ohio

Talked with someone from Obama headquarters here the other evening.

[CreekDog]

20. when there are dozens of polls and you are asking if just one is the truth

i'm pretty sure there's no logic we can say that will be sufficient for you to understand.