A Sobering Analysis from The Royal United Services Institute

[bluewater]

First, some background info on this Royal charted think tank:

The Royal United Services Institute has been at the heart of military and security thinking for over 190 years. The Duke of Wellington and a number of other senior military commanders established the Institute in 1831, and some of the most influential thinkers in the 19th and 20th centuries worked or spoke at RUSI.

https://rusi.org/about/our-purpose/our-history

Their analysis on the current situation in Ukraine:

Indeed, the inability of Russian forces in the north to make ground after an operational pause has led some analysts to question whether the Russian army can in fact encircle Kyiv at all. In other theatres, Russian forces have made few gains against major cities, having captured only Kherson in the south so far, although it is likely that they will also take Mariupol.

However, an exclusive focus on cities – though understandable – may obscure more than it reveals. Though it seems clear that the initial Russian plan was based around a swift coup de main against Kyiv while the bulk of the Ukrainian army was pinned in the east opposite Donetsk and Luhansk, this is unlikely to remain the case. Even under best-case assumptions (from a Russian perspective), it is unlikely that Kyiv will be taken soon. However, it is worth considering that there is a second Ukrainian centre of gravity – alluded to by Vladimir Putin in his pledge to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine – the regular Ukrainian army, most of which remains near Donetsk and Luhansk under the aegis of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO).

The position of this force is looking increasingly precarious as Russian forces advance to encircle it on three axes. Russian forces of the 58th Combined Arms Army and 22nd Army, pushing north from Crimea, have commenced assaults on Beryslav along the Dnieper, and appear likely to link up at Polohy with Russian separatist forces and the Eighth Combined Arms Army advancing from Donbas. Elements of the First Guards Tank Army and Sixth Combined Arms Army advancing past Kharkiv also appear to have largely eschewed attempts to take the city – focusing instead on reducing it with artillery while bypassing it as they advance south and west past Poltava, cutting the JFO off from escaping northwards. Finally, in the southwest, Russian forces of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division appear similarly intent on bypassing Mykolaiv but, notably, may not be advancing on Odessa. Instead, they appear to be advancing north, which could suggest a desire to seize the western banks of key crossing points over the Dnieper.

Viewed in conjunction, these advances present a troubling picture whereby the Ukrainian forces opposite Donetsk and Luhansk are at risk of encirclement on the eastern side of the Dnieper. If this is indeed the focus of Russia’s approach, then the emphasis on Russia's ability to take major cities as a metric of success will have been an analytical error, as Russia appears more intent on pinning Ukrainian forces in cities like Kharkiv while it bypasses them. Indeed, preparations for an amphibious assault on Odessa may have been a feint, given that the ground forces such an assault could have linked up with appear to be moving north.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/not-out-woods-yet-assessing-operational-situation-ukraine

Much more sobering and in depth analysis at the link.

[Deminpenn]

1. It's not like the Ukrainian Army is bereft of

intelligence on Russia's moves. Western intelligence services are sharing information and more importantly satellite imagery of the movements and positions of the Russian Army.

Also, having been part of Russia, Ukraine knows Russian military doctrine and tactics.

[bluewater]

2. My take away is that all the fun memes misrepresent the facts on the ground.

The situation in Ukraine is much more dire than portrayed in the media.

This is evident from President Zelensky's "urgent pleas" for peace talks as posted in Latest Breaking News.

Ukraine's Zelenskiy calls for urgent peace talks and warns of catastrophe in Mariupol

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142890928

[Deminpenn]

15. It's difficult to tell what the real situation is on the ground

My point is, the Ukrainian Army is not "flying blind'. They are getting western military intelligence to help them strategize. That information may well be part of the reason Zelenskyy wants direct talks with Putin.

The fact that Russia is now using cruise missiles from afar, are threatening NATO supply and resupply lines and demanding that no S-300 air defenses be sent to Ukraine tells me that their ground attack and war in general is not going well.

[delisen]

3. Scary

[Tomconroy]

4. Four days old and that can make a difference.

For the most part the Russians have stopped advancing.

I've been reading about the attempt to surround the JFO since nearly the beginning of the war. I really have to wonder if the Russians have enough troops to actually surround the army and prevent a retreat. Have to think that's unlikely.
The Russians tried to attack on a half dozen axis at once with out enough forces. We'll see.

[bluewater]

5. 3/19 : Russian Forces Push Into Center of Besieged Mariupol

Russian Forces Push Into Center of Besieged Mariupol

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142891017

Posted in Latest Breaking News

[Tomconroy]

6. Going to put up two more analyses in a bit.

[bluewater]

7. I filter all these analyses thru how desperate Zelensky is pleading for more help immediately.

And the actual facts on the ground matter more than analyses from a distance.

Ukraine stated yesterday they were cut off from the Sea of Azov completely.

Today Russian forces have entered the city center of Mariupol, the largest city between Russia and Crimea and Ukraine has said it is impossible to lift the siege of that city.

Over the next month the facts will play out, but, personally, I can't help but feel Ukraine will be hard pressed despite seemingly overly optimistic reports of "stalled" and "bumbling" Russian efforts.

best regards,

[Tomconroy]

8. Not sure the Sea of Azov has any strategic significance.

Taking Mariupol, while unfortunate, means more Russian forces tied down as occupiers and not combatants.
We'll see.

[bluewater]

9. It's very strategic. The UK and Ukraine signed a treaty to build a naval base there

From:
Ministry of Defence and Jeremy Quin MP
Published
23 June 2021



Defence Minister Jeremy Quin and Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Oleksandr Myroniuk sign the MOI © Crown Copyright

Minister for Defence Procurement Jeremy Quin and First Sea Lord Admiral Sir Tony Radakin were joined by Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, Oleksandr Myroniuk and industry representative David Lockwood from Babcock on the Type 45 Destroyer, where the Memorandum of Implementation (MOI) was signed.

Building on the agreement signed on HMS Prince of Wales in October 2020, the two nations and their industrial partners will now push Ukrainian naval capabilities enhancement projects (UNCEP) forward.

These projects will include; the introduction of new capabilities through the delivery of new naval platforms and defensive shipborne armaments, the training of Ukrainian Navy personnel, the creation of new naval bases, and the purchase of two Sandown class mine countermeasure vessels.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-signs-agreement-to-support-enhancement-of-ukrainian-naval-capabilities

So, no joint UK/Ukraine naval base on the very strategic Sea of Azov as things stand now.

[Tomconroy]

10. Odessa is strategic in the war. Not Mairupol IMHO.

[bluewater]

12. Connecting the Crimean Peninsula to Russia by land was a major Russian strategic goal.

Honestly, I do not believe Putin intends to ever give any of the land bordering the Sea of Azov back to Ukrainian control.

Putin will either "annex" it or turn it over to his proxy break-away "republics".

But as you say, we will see.

[bluewater]

11. "Taking Mariupol,while unfortunate, means more Russian forces tied down as occupiers and not combat"

Actually, it means the Azov Battalion, one of Ukraine's most effective combat groups, which is headquartered in Mariupol has suffered a major defeat.

And that frees up Russian combat forces to move north, consolidating their lines.

It is more than unfortunate, it's a distressing set back.

[Tomconroy]

13. The Azov battalion has been reported to be serving everywhere

in Ukraine. Ukraine does not lack for good fighters. Ask a Russian.

[bluewater]

14. "The city of Mariupol... is primarily being defended by the Azov Battalion"

The city of Mariupol, which has a population of 500,000, is primarily being defended by the Azov Battalion. This is one of the places, along with Ukraine's capital Kyiv and the country's second-largest city Kharkiv, where Russia is conducting its war particularly brutally. Since early March, the city has been under siege and subjected to heavy bombardment. There is no electricity, little water, and scarce food supplies.
...

Azov headquarters in Mariupol

It is also where the Azov Battalion, which is part of the Ukrainian National Guard and thus subordinate to the Interior Ministry, has set up its headquarters. Its fighters are well trained, but the unit is controversial because it is composed of nationalists and far-right radicals. Its very existence is one of the pretexts Russia has used for its war against Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/the-azov-battalion-extremists-defending-mariupol/ar-AAV8SGx

[Deminpenn]

16. Russia has been bombing Mariupol for several weeks

They are only just entering the center of the city? A place where they also will now face urban warfare.

[ancianita]

17. Re Odessa, one factor might be that we donated US Coast Guard patrol ships in their harbor.

On land, Odessa might be combat ready, too.