Zelensky: 'Ukraine cannot compromise on its territorial integrity.'

[highplainsdem]

Link to tweet

[maxsolomon]

1. Russia is betting that it doesn't matter if Ukraine compromises.

The conquered territory will be annexed to Russia, and that will be that. The world will keep buying Russian gas.

Decades on, no one does anything about China annexing Tibet.

[Happy Hoosier]

2. I think you are right.

Russia has likely given up on totally conquering Ukraine. They’ll content themselves with seizing the juicy bits confident that we’ll let him do it. Russia may he right, to our shame.

[speak easy]

4. The only way the Russians could carry that off is genocide - i.e. re-opening the gulags.

They are going to face an insurgency every bit as determined as the Nazis faced in WWII.

[BootinUp]

3. It will be up to the Ukrainians

in the end. With the world's support they can definitely outlast Russia's assault. Wait until those sanctions have had a little time.

[maxsolomon]

5. Unless the globe stops buying Russian oil, all sanctions are bearable.

Iran has been under crippling sanctions for decades. They still sell oil.

Sorry to be a cynic. I think Ukraine will survive, but I don't think they'll keep the south and east, added by the Bolsheviks after the Revolution. That is Putin's prize. Novorossiya.

[BootinUp]

8. Bearable yes, but not enough to support an expansionist

foreign policy.

[Happy Hoosier]

6. But can they retake the southern coast?

We’ll see.

[BootinUp]

7. I don't know how long it will take, months or years, but Russia

is going to end up giving shit back.

[Igel]

9. Not really.

In the end it will be whether or not the West continues to provide help.

Remember that a large part of the "resolution" and the Minsk accords in 2015 resulted from no actual support for Ukraine. Rather than escalate the situation, we provided blankets and bandages as Ukrainian tanks were destroyed, soldiers shot or taken captive and publicly humiliated, and cities and towns taken over. The Ukrainians had a choice: Accept accords that were disadvantageous to the victim and rewarded the victimizer (or "victor&quot , or continue to be victimized. Only in 2018 did lethal aid finally to go Ukraine, and even then it had to be warehoused where nobody would be tempted to use it inappropriately. (But the mere fact that it *could* be there deterred Russian tank movements and placement ... and attacks using said armor.) The same general attitude on the part of many countries continued until the current Russian war of choice.

Even the Iraqi and Taliban "resistance" depended crucially on outside countries' support--whether official, underground, or just a blind eye turned to what wealthy individuals or organizations did. What you're left with is diesel-ammonia nitrate bombs, and as we've seen in the US, it's really easy to control and monitor the sale of large quantities of that kind of fertilizer in the US--and then consider the "command and control" system in Russia, where only corruption might provide a way to acquire the stuff.

What the Ukrainian resistance would be left with after exhausting whatever explosives and weapons are lying around after pacification is random shootings (but Russia would work to round up guns, as it did in Soviet and post-Soviet times) and the methods of the sicarii, carrying knives up their sleeves and stabbing people in public.

[BootinUp]

11. You're talking about ancient history

Things have changed. Start writing Putin's epitaph it will be needed in a few years.

[standingtall]

10. He is right

Would be foolish for Ukraine to give up it's entire Southern Sea board to Russia in any deal. Not only would that allow Russia to steal much of Ukraine's untapped wealth in natural gas, but would make them a landed locked State surrounded by a hostile Russian government to it's north and south. Weakening their defenses with nothing to stop Russia from coming back and taking the rest of Ukraine.