David Rothkopf: Time May Be Ukraine's Biggest Ally in War Against Putin

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://www.thedailybeast.com/david-rothkopf-says-us-ukraine-nato-have-a-secret-weapon-against-russia-patience

How long is a night when you are huddled beneath a blanket on a subway station floor, holding your baby in your arms as missiles and bombs reduce the city over your head to rubble?

How long is a day when there is no water, no food, no electricity and no escape.

Time means something different in a war zone. It is more precious, more tortuous, more valuable and more treacherous.

When I spoke recently to a senior U.S. State Department official about the war in Ukraine, time was at the center of every point he made. It was the secret weapon of the Ukrainians and the greatest challenge they and their allies faced. Over time sanctions against the Russians would cause increasing pain. Over time mounting losses in Ukraine would generate ever greater opposition to Putin within his own country.

The official, a thoughtful, experienced national security hand, emphasized to me that we have to find a way to have patience. And he acknowledged the Russians knew that and that is why they were so determined to escalate attacks, to destroy cities, to inflict more pain on civilians. Because they knew that only if they did that they might force Ukraine to the negotiating table on favorable terms. They also knew that the longer this war went on and it became clearer and clearer that Russia could not achieve its goals, the weaker Moscow’s negotiation leverage would become.

In a way the role of time in this conflict has been turned on its head. Originally, it was predicted that a lightning strike against Ukraine by Russia’s massive, well-equipped army would produce instant victory. Major cities would be taken. The government would be decapitated and replaced. Russia’s might would intimidate Ukrainians and their neighbors into future capitulation to the whims of the dictator in the Kremlin.

*snip*

[BootinUp]

1. K&R

[elleng]

2. Maybe, but how much patience can immediate victims have?

[PortTack]

3. Some perspective to ponder- it cost the US 300 million a day, yes a day to fight in Afghanistan

The yearly Russian military budget fixed by cheapskate pootie is 48 billion. How long can he endure that cost? So yes, time is on the Ukrainians side in more than one way!

More perspective- our military budget is 748+ billion

[Igel]

4. Can't compare.

Purchasing parity power matters. And relative cost of recruits matters.

I was in the Czech Republic in 1994. I could buy a decent meal for 40 korun. Main course, beer, maybe desert. Good beer.

$1.50 or less. On my student stipend I could live really well. Or live in the US in relative penury. Same income. Different purchasing power.

That needs to be taken into account.

[PortTack]

7. Agree

I get a lot of these kinds of figures from a Johns Hopkins educated vet that spent time in Bosnia,Kosovo and other areas.

He talks about Russia’s expenditures not being nearly enough to supply and maintain a large military, let alone fight a war.

You can find him on YouTube if you care to. CPSCOTT. Very informed, not pushing himself, just putting out the facts

When China and Japan spend 320+ billion a year ...russia spending 48 billion?...not nearly enough. A lot of what they need to supply and build a military does not come from inside russia and costs more...way more

[OAITW r.2.0]

5. Biden has spent his Presidency rebuilding relationships within NATO and

every country that is our ally in Europe. The speed with which the world responded against Putin is a testament to Biden's capabilities in Foreign Policy.

That put the war on an entirely different front: the Russian Economy. Putin has Potemkin-ized the Russian State. Neither their military nor their economy is going to function better in the future, as long as Putin is running the show.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. The bigger question is: does the west have the patience to endure months of sanctions?

High gas prices and wheat shortages, among other effects of sanctions, might wear some nations down, especially as the midterms get closer and the GOP weaponizes the sanctions’ effects against the Dems.