Atlantic: Why Can't the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

[ColinC]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_term=2022-03-21T14%3A51%3A34&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=edit-promo

America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

About the author: Eliot A. Cohen is a contributing writer at The Atlantic, a professor at The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and the Arleigh Burke chair in strategy at CSIS. From 2007 to 2009, he was the Counselor of the Department of State. He is the author most recently of The Big Stick: The Limits of Soft Power and the Necessity of Military Force.

When i visited iraq during the 2007 surge, I discovered that the conventional wisdom in Washington usually lagged the view from the field by two to four weeks. Something similar applies today. Analysts and commentators have grudgingly declared that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been blocked, and that the war is stalemated. The more likely truth is that the Ukrainians are winning.


So why can’t Western analysts admit as much? Most professional scholars of the Russian military first predicted a quick and decisive Russian victory; then argued that the Russians would pause, learn from their mistakes, and regroup; then concluded that the Russians would actually have performed much better if they had followed their doctrine; and now tend to mutter that everything can change, that the war is not over, and that the weight of numbers still favors Russia. Their analytic failure will be only one of the elements of this war worth studying in the future.


At the same time, there are few analysts of the Ukrainian military—a rather more esoteric specialty—and thus the West has tended to ignore the progress Ukraine has made since 2014, thanks to hard-won experience and extensive training by the United States, Great Britain, and Canada. The Ukrainian military has proved not only motivated and well led but also tactically skilled, integrating light infantry with anti-tank weapons, drones, and artillery fire to repeatedly defeat much larger Russian military formations. The Ukrainians are not merely defending their strong points in urban areas but maneuvering from and between them, following the Clausewitzian dictum that the best defense is a shield of well-directed blows.


The reluctance to admit what is happening on the ground in Ukraine stems perhaps in part from the protectiveness scholars feel for their subject (even if they loathe it on moral grounds), but more from a tendency to emphasize technology (the Russians have some good bits), numbers (which they dominate, though only up to a point), and doctrine. The Russian army remains in some ways very cerebral, and intellectuals can too easily admire elegant tactical and operational thinking without pressing very hard on practice. But the war has forcibly drawn attention to the human dimension. For example, most modern militaries rely on a strong cadre of noncommissioned officers. Sergeants make sure that vehicles are maintained and exercise leadership in squad tactics. The Russian NCO corps is today, as it has always been, both weak and corrupt. And without capable NCOs, even large numbers of technologically sophisticated vehicles deployed according to a compelling doctrine will end up broken or abandoned, and troops will succumb to ambushes or break under fire.

The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance.

[Effete Snob]

1. Good article

The copy/paste needs some cleanup.

[uponit7771]

2. K&R, RA is designed for 90s fight and so are thinking of majority of analyst in DoD IMHO. The RA

... has lost 3 battle flag officers in less than a month. WTF ?! That's text book LOSING at the C&C level and too.

The biggest threat here is China, their leader isn't a total fucked up Trump level idiot and they've been listening to too many MAGA

[David__77]

3. Yet another argument against so-called Vietnam syndrome.

Some people even want the United States to get over what could be called “aversion to nuclear war syndrome.”

[redwitch]

10. Pretty sure I will remain averse to nuclear war.

Until I die ( hopefully not from a nuclear war).

[Tetrachloride]

4. I disagree. Its a mix at a really high cost.

[Love4u]

5. I agree . . .

I wouldn't say Ukraine is "winning." True they are scoring major points, but they aren't taking their land back and the Ukrainians are paying a terrible price. I want them to win so bad.

[ColinC]

6. Actually Ukraine has taken more than a dozen towns back in the southwest

They brought back normal supply chains in to mykolaiv, and are pushing into Kherson as we speak.They may still lose Mariupol but may very well take back Kherson.they have also kept Russia's supply chains bogged down and have likely removed about 30,00 Russian soldiers from the battlefield. All the while Russia hasn't taken more than one major city in nearly a month of fighting despite the technological and numbers advantage they have.

[WarGamer]

7. I disagree.

First... define "winning"

If "winning" means inflicting a terrible toll on the Russians, keeping Zelenskyy in power, uniting the world in your favor and securing BILLIONS in build-back funding, then that's a VICTORY, 100%

But if victory is defined as pushing the Russians OUT of Ukraine, I don't think it'll happen.

I think this thing will end in a few weeks/months with some negotiated peace, some concessions to Russia and some security guarantees to Ukraine

[ColinC]

8. It seems to be happening.

Ukraine has actually taken back nearly 30 small towns and are actively fighting to retake Kherson. Russia has lost 30,000 troops based on the last report and are bogged down in supplies. They are begging anybody and everybody to help as Ukraine has a steady flow of supplies into Kyiv and Russia ahas shown no signs of being able to stop it, or even find a way to enter Kyiv. Reports are showing Russia is running out of munitions and are losing battle flag officers by the buttload. Ukraine is not likely to accept a deal that cedes territory or gives assurances of neutrality. With Russia hemmoraging supplies and soldiers, it is starting to look ridiculous for anybody to claim Russia will ever completely takeover Ukraine, let alone hold any major part of it's territory.

[Hoyt]

9. Kinda feel same, but it's unpredictable at best.

[LiberalFighter]

11. Because the so called analysts are not on site and they don't see the whole picture.

[MerryBlooms]

12. I believe the average US citizen has been

Conditioned all their life to believe Russia is the ultimate war power. We're seeing how much money has been stolen from their military and funneled to putin's pet projects and money to his fellow oligarchs. Once the Russian people wake up to how their president and his friends stole billions from the military, there will be great unrest. There are already lines in Moscow just trying to get sugar... It's going to get much worse by the end of the month. Reserves of food that aren't there, because putin and his friends also ste that money.

A lot of people refuse to believe one positive report from Ukraine. Fog of war, demands for more sources. However, exactly the opposite when reports of decimated Ukrainian area by russia. Pictures provided in both instances, but only Ukrainian claims are demanded more proof! Fog of war! I swear, I see that shitty phrase tearing down another positive Ukrainian military claim, and I'm probably going to unleash curse words that would make my mom blush.