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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAnalysis: Putin fears a coup but it's not oligarchs who will oust him -- it's the siloviki
Analysts and Russia watchers are batting about the idea that perhaps Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin has become mentally unstable. They point to ranting speeches where Putin seems to invent history out of whole cloth, or his public and cringeworthy dressing down of one of his intelligence chiefs. Then there are the meme-worthy photos of Putin sitting at the end of ridiculously long tables. Some observe that Putin simply doesnt look well physically puffy in the face and less steady on his feet. Speculation suggests that all of this is due to the Russian leaders increased isolation, his surrounding himself with yes-men, or his angst over the bite of widespread economic sanctions the West and other allies have leveled against him since Russia invaded Ukraine. Others say he is afraid of covid-19 and taking draconian precautions.
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The real threat to Putin comes from the siloviki, a Russian word used loosely to describe Russias security and military elite. These are people like Nikolai Patrushev, currently the secretary of the Russian security council, and Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), as well as other current and former senior security officials.
Men like Patrushev and Bortnikov not only possess hard power, but they know how to use it and are inclined to do so. The FSB includes around 160,000 members of the Border Guard service, as well as thousands of armed personnel with law enforcement authorities. But the strength of the FSB comes not only from its ability to do violence; the organization is also highly secretive. FSB officers are skilled at working clandestinely, keeping their most sensitive operations strictly compartmented to small groups. Putin understands this better than most: He once ran the organization himself.
The siloviki are willing to use this deadly mixture of hard power and secrecy when a serious threat to the Russian kleptocratic system emerges. Thats because the security elite derives their power from the system. The whole operation can flex when threatened; street protests are tolerated to a certain extent, and Russia has withstood lesser Western sanctions in the past. Like branches of an old tree, the kleptocratic autocracy in the Kremlin can withstand the occasional storm, but if the trunk is rotting, the siloviki will take action.
https://vancouversun.com/news/world/analysis-putin-fears-a-coup-but-its-not-oligarchs-who-will-oust-him-its-the-siloviki/wcm/3c862442-b671-479c-ade8-731ae71a94c4
Fiendish Thingy
(15,361 posts)Some FSB bigwig just got canned and arrested, I thought it was Bortnikov.
billh58
(6,635 posts)More at link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-heads-begin-to-roll-in-russia/ar-AAVm1nK?li=BBorjTa&ocid=OEMDHP15
RussBLib
(8,983 posts)... and Navalny just got sentenced to 9 years in prison.
Wingus Dingus
(8,049 posts)We'll see.
keithbvadu2
(36,360 posts)Putin likes parts of history.
Maybe he has heard of the Praetorian Guard?
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Praetorian+Guard
How many emperors were killed by the Praetorian Guard?
thirteen Roman emperors
The Praetorian Guard was unpopular among the citizens of Rome. The Praetorians behaved like mobsters extortion, bribes, and violence were their trademarks. They assassinated thirteen Roman emperors. An astonishing rate of murders for a unit whose sole purpose was the protection of the emperor.Feb 11, 2021
empedocles
(15,751 posts)'' . . . A Delay in Treatment
The guards felt they didnt have the right authority to call for a doctor (indeed many of Stalins doctors were the target of a new purge) so, instead, they called the Minister of State Security. He also felt he didnt have the right powers and called Beria. Exactly what happened next is still not fully understood, but Beria and other leading Russians delayed acting, possibly because they wanted Stalin to die and not include them in the forthcoming purge, possibly because they were scared of seeming to infringe on Stalins powers should he recover. They only called for doctors sometime between 7:00 and 10:00 the next day, after first traveling to the dacha themselves.
The doctors, when they finally arrived, found Stalin partially paralyzed, breathing with difficulty, and vomiting blood. They feared the worst but were unsure. The best doctors in Russia, those which had been treating Stalin, had recently been arrested as part of the forthcoming purge and were in prison. Representatives of the doctors who were free and had seen Stalin went to the prisons to ask for the old doctors opinions, who confirmed the initial, negative, diagnoses. Stalin struggled on for several days, eventually dying at 21:50 on March 5th. His daughter said about the event: The death agony was terrible. He literally choked to death as we watched. (Conquest, Stalin: Breaker of Nations, p. 312) . . . ''
https://de.zxc.wiki/wiki/Stalinsche_S%C3%A4uberungen
SunSeeker
(51,367 posts)Like the millions of Ukrainians he forced to starve to death.
Farmer-Rick
(10,071 posts)Don't drag the best doctors in your country off to prison if you need them to treat you and keep you alive.
Geez, I guess Stalin thought he was invincible and could jail them despite needing them to stay alive.
Jack-o-Lantern
(965 posts)Good! Stalins death agony was bought and paid for hundreds of times by his life of murder and oppression.
Warpy
(110,900 posts)instead of giving it to their buddies--or Putin's buddies and family.
Meet the new Czar, just like the old Czar
However, I agree, the end won't come from the plutocrats, most of whom are out of the country trying to hide any assets they still have, which is most of them. It will come from military command and the intelligence high command. Apparently it doesn't matter if you rob the country blind as long as you don't engage in failed military operations based on fantasy instead of intelligence.
I have no idea if this will bring an end to the Ukraine invasion, my best guess says nope. The brass always think they can wage a better campaign. They can't. They're fighting the wrong kind of war against the wrong people with the wrong equipment and Putin's bunch have robbed Russia's military as much as it has everything else: deferred maintenance, extyremely limited training, especially for pilots, the use of cheap conscripts instead of professional military, cheap parts, lousy support, outdated and inadequate field rations, the list just goes on and on.
Escurumbele
(3,340 posts)way around, I thought Putin was the master. Of course, when it comes down to lying there is no one greater than trump, he is the greatest liar of all time...something he is good at, Geez!
Martin68
(22,663 posts)lindysalsagal
(20,433 posts)LiberalLovinLug
(14,153 posts)Best case scenerio, Putin is gone.
But if its done by the military elite, you'd just get another pro mililtary leader. He'd say all the right things, in order to have sanctions removed. Pull out troops. But probably demand the breakaway regions, and of course Crimea as war spoils, in exchange for peace.
But the Russian people would continue to live in ignorance and fear. Probably they'd even have more draconian laws enacted, less freedoms, than even now.
The only way things would change there is if there was a popular uprising. A new Glasnov. New democratic elections including the jailed opposition leader, and overseen by international observers.
But I think the former would happen way before the later ever had a chance to get off the ground.
empedocles
(15,751 posts)Sounds plausible given the tremendous growth in communications and information technology.
Parents of dead sons may have improvised grapevines. Hackers, putin enemies, etc.
Could be complicated.