​​From millionaires to Muslims, small subgroups of the population seem much larger to many Americans

[cinematicdiversions]

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/15/americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew


When it comes to estimating the size of demographic groups, Americans rarely get it right. In two recent YouGov polls, we asked respondents to guess the percentage (ranging from 0% to 100%) of American adults who are members of 43 different groups, including racial and religious groups, as well as other less frequently studied groups, such as pet owners and those who are left-handed.

When people’s average perceptions of group sizes are compared to actual population estimates, an intriguing pattern emerges: Americans tend to vastly overestimate the size of minority groups. This holds for sexual minorities, including the proportion of gays and lesbians (estimate: 30%, true: 3%), bisexuals (estimate: 29%, true: 4%), and people who are transgender (estimate: 21%, true: 0.6%).

It also applies to religious minorities, such as Muslim Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%) and Jewish Americans (estimate: 30%, true: 2%). And we find the same sorts of overestimates for racial and ethnic minorities, such as Native Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%), Asian Americans (estimate: 29%, true: 6%), and Black Americans (estimate: 41%, true: 12%).

Black Americans estimate that, on average, Black people make up 52% of the U.S. adult population; non-Black Americans estimate the proportion is roughly 39%, closer to the real figure of 12%. First-generation immigrants we surveyed estimate that first-generation immigrants account for 40% of U.S. adults, while non-immigrants guess it is around 31%, closer to the actual figure of 14%.

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Interesting article but part of me really wonders what conclusions can be drawn. It is as if people believe the demographics on TV are the same as real life.

[A HERETIC I AM]

1. Slightly off topic, but perhaps a parallel;

I’ve been a trucker for 35 years. In all that time I think I have seen exactly ONE truck driver in a wheelchair.

ONE. He owned his own customized tractor and it was set up with a winch system that would lift him and his chair the 4 or 5 feet or so up off the ground and put him in the drivers position.

Truckers in wheelchairs are such an incredibly rare occurrence as to be statistically insignificant.

Yet in every truck stop and every rest area, there are tractor trailer sized spaces located closest to the building designated as Handicapped/Wheelchair accessible.

Now I am not saying the Americans With Disabilities Act is not a good idea, but this is an example of the solution overstepping the need and reality.

[Resistance1]

2. Fear magnifies things

Especially when they are not white, male, protestant, conservatives

[maxsolomon]

3. that's absolutely insane.

black americans think over half the US population is black?

americans think 1 in 5 americans are trans?

i don't buy this.

[bluewater]

4. So, according to this survey, people think "white" Americans are only 3% of the population?

Some quick math on those "poll" results:

Native Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%)
Asian Americans (estimate: 29%, true: 6%)
Black Americans (estimate: 41%, true: 12%)

Total of Minorities = 97% !!!!

So, according to this survey, people think "white" Americans are only 3% of the population?

Or is what this poll actually showing us is how bad Americans are at doing math?

Or how bad their short term memory is that they forget their previous answers?

lol