How likely is it that the Russian army end up like the French at Dien Bien Phu?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I've been thinking about that.

[Marvin Marvin]

1. A lot of wishful thinking.

Europe depends on Russian gas and oil.
Russia has nukes.

[SCantiGOP]

2. The French didn't have nukes

Russia will not allow their army to be taken prisoner.

[dutch777]

6. That's my worry. When there is not much more downside for Putin to just nuke Kyiv....scary.

[SCantiGOP]

19. He may be crazy, it certainly seems so

Let’s just hope his generals have a plan like ours did when Trump was melting down between the election and leaving the White House.
Putin could kill millions, but any use of nukes by them would ensure that Russia ceased to exist as a country. The big question would be whether any other countries would survive.

[2naSalit]

8. ...

Don't they have them now? I seem to recall many years ago they sure did a lot of bomb testing over around Fiji up into the 1970s.

[dsp3000]

18. Yes but they didn't have them in the 50s, when Dien bien phu occurred

[2naSalit]

20. That's the other...

Possibility I had in mind, I wasn't whether the reference was to pre 1950s.

[getagrip_already]

3. I think it's more likely

That Russia will stop engaging with the Ukraine army and dig in to pound the cities from afar.

That will reduce their losses and achieve their goal of depopulating the country.

They can win a war of attrition as long as they don't engage the army elements.

The Ukraine army has had success because the Russians have been coming to them. Russia can settle in 20-30 miles back and hold defensive lines while pummeling every block.

Not losing is a victory for putin.

[bluewater]

4. "Not losing is a victory for putin."

Thanks for the insights.

This is why I think the status quo is untenable, it leaves the Ukrainians at Putin's mercy for the foreseeable future.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I'm not sure Russia can indefinitely maintain a defensive posture

[PortTack]

10. Agree... pootie isn't going to be able to fund his war effort for an indefinite period

For some perspective- it cost America 300 million a day, yes a day to fight in Afghanistan.

To say nothing of the fact that the Ukrainians are now doing some counter offensive moves pushing the ruskies back further and further, destroying equipment and decimating their soliders

[NickB79]

7. That requires a series of supply lines

And the Ukrainians have been adept at severing them.

Remember, the territory Russia has seized isn't actually controlled by them. They didn't send nearly enough troops to control the land between the Russian border and Kyiv, in their rush for a fast, decisive victory.

Between NLAW's, Javelins, and good old IED's, Russian logistics are in shambles.

[yagotme]

11. AK's can take out supply trucks. nt

[SoonerPride]

12. Shoulder fired missiles can

And are

[yagotme]

13. There are more AK's, and cheaper, than missiles.

That was my point. Any yahoo on the ground with an AK (most likely scenario) can take out a truck. I'm looking at minimalist weaponry here. Yes, you need missiles for tanks, APC's, etc., but they get supplied by simple old trucks, no armor, that an AK can make mincemeat out of. Save the missiles for the big boys, and use rifles for thin skinned vehicles.

[SoonerPride]

14. I'm sorry. I misread your post. I thought it said "can't."

My bad.

Lol

[yagotme]

15. No Prob.

[NickB79]

16. Yeah, but a blown up truck blocks the whole road.

A bullet-riddled one gets pushed off and the others roll on by.

[yagotme]

22. Blown up can be pushed, too, unless you destroy the undercarriage.

Then you have to get a tow strap and pull it.

[Tennessee Hillbilly]

9. Another possible historical comparison might be ...

the battle of Stalingrad during World War 2.

In intense urban fighting the Germans slowly penetrated to near the center of Stalingrad. But then the Russians brought in some new divisions and managed to completely surround the city. Many of the German officers were airlifted to safety, but more than 100,000 German soldiers eventually surrendered.

Many historians consider this to be the most important battle of the war.

[Marcuse]

17. Depends on if Russian force protection condition is as atrophied as some of the rest of the army.

[roamer65]

21. It's going to be MUCH worse.

Russia will soon come apart just like the USSR, but much more bloody.

The myth of Russian military prowess has been shattered to pieces.