Aaaannnnnnnd Now Russia starts "walking back" demands !!!

[uponit7771]

This is Russia's general staff not just some rando talking head

This IMHO is first "official" indicator that Putrid is getting punched in the mouth and wants to hold on to certain parts of UKR.

I say naw, hell naw and hell to the naw ... beat their asses back to Russia. No one in their right mind is going to believe Putrid is going to keep his word and not attack UKR again even if its on paper.

https://www.interfax-russia.ru/main/genshtab-rf-rossiyskie-voennye-skoncentriruyutsya-na-polnom-osvobozhdenii-donbassa

March 25. Interfax-Russia.ru - The possibility of storming the cities blocked by the Russian military in Ukraine is not ruled out, but the main goal is the complete liberation of Donbass, said Sergey Rudskoy, head of the Main Operational Directorate (GOU) of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces.

"Initially, we did not plan to storm them in order to prevent destruction and minimize losses among personnel and civilians," Rudskoy said at a briefing on Friday.

This site is in Russian but can be translated by Google translate

Twitter thread

Link to tweet

[gratuitous]

1. Just the Donbas, Vlad?

But I thought Putin was all about de-nazifying Ukraine. What happened to that, Vlad? Would your Soviet predecessors have been satisfied with securing just a remote minor province against Hitler? My, my.

[uponit7771]

2. +1, also the south and east is were UKR oil/gas reserves are located. Its always about greed and

... oil with bastards like Putrid and his homies.

[stopdiggin]

3. this MIGHT constitue good news (or at least an inkling of such)

but disinformation and slight of hand are also in full swell (to the effect that little that comes from the Russians can be taken at face value). I guess we'll have to see what actions follow in the coming week(s). Will we see a noticeable decrease in pressure (and lessened troop presence?) on 'non-targeted' cities and areas?

[uponit7771]

5. +1, yeah ... I just thought about how many time Russian assholes will talk in bad faith. They lie

... when the truth serves them better like Benedict Donald does

[bif]

4. So why did he have to destroy the whole country?

If all he wanted was the Donbas region?

[uponit7771]

6. RIGHT ! RU thought attacking the country would be a cake walk but now they know their forces are

... going to be captured up north if they don't flee to Belarus they're only wanting the part were the oil/gas reserves are.

[Doc Sportello]

17. I think at this point it's a matter of rage and vengeance

Same as with dump and other sociopathic narcissists in power. They lash out in service of deep-seated personality disorders and care not one bit about the lives destroyed. Many of putrid's moves don't make sense from a strategic point of view. Getting rid of and raging at top military and intelligence people shows he is taking it out on others and can't accept his own responsibility for this debacle.

[ForgedCrank]

7. Remember when you were a kid and

you were with all your friends and crashed you bike doing something stupid?
First thing you did was jump up and proclaim "didn't hurt".
It appears that is where Putin is about right now.

[lagomorph777]

19. "Ow, my balls!"

That's where Pootie's gonna be soon.

[unblock]

8. I'm still not convinced this wasn't always his plan

Conquering the whole of ukraine was always going to be a tall order, and all his pre-invasion propaganda was focused on donbas, not all of ukraine.

My theory is all he ever thought he could realistically get was donbas, but that by invading all of ukraine, he punishes them for not caving to him, and he positions himself so that "only" getting donbas is "settling".

Old negotiating tactic, ask for the moon and settle for merely everything you actually wanted.


Note that the high price ukraine is paying, regardless, will make it easier for putin to take over some other region in another country.

At least, I think that was his plan. I think he thought invading all of ukraine was a "head-I-win/tails-I-don't-lose" proposition.

[uponit7771]

13. Same, the rest of UKR was a distraction but now there's no way UKR is going to give up those

... areas and if Zel does he loses elections hands down.

Now no one in UKR is going to believe for a second that Putrid will keep his word on any treaty seeing he has already broken his word in writing.

[qazplm135]

16. I mean if his plan was always just Donbas

Why not concentrate troops there to begin with?

This is is fall back plan because he wrongly thought this would be like 2014.

[unblock]

22. I don't think the plan was a conventional military plan

I don't think the plan was to straight out conquer the region he wanted and certainly not all of ukraine. They're really not acting like they have a proper military strategy for that.

I think the plan was to demoralize and punish ukraine by assassinating zelenskiy, destroying as much as possible (military targets or otherwise), and terrorizing and committing genocide on the Ukrainian people, until they caved to his demand for donbas.

I think his end game for ukraine was that it be theoretically independent, but with a puppet president, much like Belarus. Or at least a president who wasn't going to be as defiant as zelenskiy.

But that in any event, he could always abandon that and "settle" for donbas.

[qazplm135]

36. The plan was to be greeted as liberators

The plan was to wipe out token resistance and then install a friendly government for a grateful people.

[standingtall]

34. I believe he wanted at least the entire Southern territory of Ukraine

He needs it logistically to support his annexation of Crimea where the water reserves are running out, because Ukraine controls the dam. To me that what this this invasion was always about raping Ukraine of it's potential wealth where a large supply of natural gas was discovered in 2012. That was the reason for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and for their full scale invasion now.

[Raven123]

9. No. Unconditional withdrawal of all forces is the starting point of negotiations

Then we can talk about paying to rebuild, Ukraine, return of those taken to Russia, and Ukraine’s acceptance into NATO, if they still want to join.

[sky_masterson]

10. How about just GTFO of here and leave Crimea behind on your way out

[WarGamer]

11. As expected... he'll secure the Donbas and Black Sea area

To complete a land bridge to Crimea. As I've called it several times

[uponit7771]

14. +1, Except now he knows there's no damn way he keeps them and is not pushed back. Zel has already

... stated any negotiation of that territory is referendum which if he goes against he loses elections.

No one in UKR is going to believe Putrid is only after that area since he's already broken his word in writing and murdered a bunch of Ukranians.

[WarGamer]

15. I think militarily... Russia can keep the Donbas and Black Sea areas

Much easier to defend than attack.

But depends on motivation to end the war.

[lagomorph777]

20. Didn't Ukraine just sink a ship in Donbas?

So, no. No trophies for Pootie. Kick his ass out.

[uponit7771]

25. Yes, it was a hit from a UA munition. Also take a look at link

I pray this is true and they hold

EDIT: Just read Kherson CITY is different from Kherson oblast or state ... still good news for the good guys.

Link to tweet

[lagomorph777]

27. What link?

I don't do Twit, if that's what you mean.

[uponit7771]

30. sorry twit ... lol... I still hate typing that word

[WarGamer]

29. the Black Sea port of Berdyansk...

The ukrainians might try to push Russia out of their territorial limits... we'll see.
But it'll be messy.

It's a well known military doctrine that it's easier to defend territory.

[uponit7771]

31. Right, and the Russians have been there a while. I still don't think they're up to the task ...

... in those areas even if there was a rope a dope distraction in the north.

They've NO DOUBT thrown their modern equipment into this fight and the new new they don't have enough produced.

[WarGamer]

33. Have they?

I haven't heard "many" reports of air superiority fighters being used by the Russians...

Lots of ground attack SU-24 and 34... helos... sure, but they never even attempted to run CAP with SU27 variants or SU35.

UKR has claimed there are SU35 in action BUT the aviation forums say no.

T14 Armata tanks are just sitting at their home bases (probably because they'd be embarrassed by how much they suck).

The Russian commander in charge of the operation is a Grade A Dunce

[uponit7771]

21. Russia's Army is a mechanized terrorist organization where all they're good at is killing women,

... children, elderly and blowing up buildings not fighting an organized military.

RA hasn't had a desert storm like conventional war since 1945, until now they've been fighting people on the back of Toyota pick up trucks and can't route them quickly.

In 2014 RA routed UA because none of the equipment slated for JFO worked, down to 90% failure rate.

Even in the south and the east the UA has kept the RA from taking over as fast as they were supposed to relative to RA's accessed ability.

UA will be able to pour equipment into an uncontested western UKR, I don't see RA lasting in the JFO without a true game changer.

I know ... I know, I want the Ukrainians to win and crush Putrids punk ass but I do think its beyond cope to see the RA isn't up to a true conventional fight right now.

[WarGamer]

32. funny if you look at it...

RA wasn't good in 1945 either.

You know how they took Berlin? Brute force and cannon fodder.

Demoralized German troops, only maybe 40k that fought hard and they killed 2x Russians and 2000 tanks

Russians only fight grinding slogs. It's what they do.

[JonAndKatePlusABird]

37. And now we have iPhones and modern intelligence

The impression I’ve gotten - and I’m NOT AT ALL someone who is well versed in war/military strategy - is that they’re still operating as if it’s 1986.

I need to do an OP on this, but I’ve always maintained to my friends/family/unfortunate souls that know me in real life, that the 2016 election was truly the perfect storm. First time we had live streaming video, available to just about everyone with a smartphone. Even the year 2012 was different than 2016.

And we’re here now in the year 2022, and technology has only progressed. Six years (2022 - 2016 = 6) in technology is an eternity.

Here’s a text I sent a friend:

[uponit7771]

24. Also ... if this is true I ... NO DOUBT ... don't think RA is up to holding JFO

Link to tweet

[lagomorph777]

26. "RA" is Russian Army? "JFO" is ???

[uponit7771]

28. Yeah, too long on OSINT. RA - Russian Army, UA - Ukr Army, Ukr - Ukraine state, RU - Russian

... state, JFO - Russians "Joint Force Operation" in Donbass oblast.

Yes, JFO sounds familiar because these bastards are always trying to imitate the US military.

There's a reason we don't have cheaper healthcare in the US, the money isn't going to total waste.

[lpbk2713]

12. And Vlad, there's that matter of Crimea. Mkay?

Or do you want us to continue embarrassing you and kicking your ass?

[lagomorph777]

18. Beat their asses back to Moscow and make them beg.

[Dirty Socialist]

35. Reparations please

I think Russia can have Donbas IF they pay forall the buildings they blew up and all of the civilians they killed.
I seriously doubt if that will happen.