BTRTN: The Midterms, Part II...Can The Dems Hold the Senate?

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers is back with Part II of its first look at the 2022 mid-terms, focusing on whether the Democrats can retain control of the Senate. BTRTN takes a line-by-line look at each race, then drills down to the 10 that really matter.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/03/btrtn-midterms-part-iican-dems-hold.html

Excerpts: "Before we review the Senate, you might be interested in our credentials as election forecasters. Below is our track record in Senate races over the last dozen years. Over this period we have only missed 15 senate races out of almost 250 predictions...To give an indication, in November, 2020, we predicted that both Georgia Senate races would go to runoff, and in January, 2021, we predicted that Democrats would win both of those runoff elections. Not many of our fellow forecasters went four-for-four on Georgia in those momentous elections...
"The Democrats have a far better chance of holding onto the Senate than the House. The Democrats simply need to protect their 14 seats up for reelection to hold the Senate, and only four of those 14 races will be competitive. The GOP not only has to flip a seat, they have to hold all of their 50 seats. Six GOP seats will potentially be competitive races, and in three of them, the GOP incumbent is retiring, making the seat more vulnerable.
"At this juncture, the odds marginally favor the Democrats, and the defining and deciding race may very well be in the state that has been and continues to be the crucible of voting rights controversy, Georgia. The outcome in that race could take days, weeks or even months to sort out, and will almost certainly be yet another test of our democracy. Here is how we peg the outcomes at this very early juncture..."

[Hoyt]

1. There is some really good info at your link. Thanks. Here's BTRTN assessment on Georgia.

"Georgia. Georgia, is, of course, ground zero in the Trump-fraud era, the state where Trump was recorded trying to bully GOP Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,180 votes” to overturn the state presidential election.

"On January 5, 2022, the Democrats pulled off an unlikely Senate doubleheader, with challengers Jon Ossoff and Ralph Warnock defeating two GOP incumbents, thereby giving Democrats control of the Senate and thus radically altering the course of Joe Biden’s presidency.

"Now Warnock is running for a full six-year term. He will almost certainly face former Georgia Bulldog football star Herschel Walker, who is drubbing the competition in GOP primary polls. Walker is a Trump acolyte, and Trump loves him from back in the days the Trump owned the United States Football League franchise that featured Walker.

"Walker led Warnock in two recent polls by an average of +2 points, but, truth be told, he is a terrible candidate, one who Mitch McConnell deeply opposed before his nomination became nearly inevitable. Walker has a history of mental illness, claiming multiple personalities, one of whom happened to abuse his wife.

"Warnock, for his part, will be helped by his own mega-fundraising prowess, and also by the power of Stacey Abrams’s voting machine that was so instrumental in the Biden, Warnock and Ossoff wins. Abrams will also be on the ticket in 2022, as the Democratic candidate for Governor. This race will surely be close, and subject to post-election challenges, some that could be fundamental to testing the strength of our democracy. BTRTN Rating: Toss-Up D.


Just made a donation -- small as it is -- to Sen Warnock's campaign so that it will be easy to do so the rest of the year. The election is already looking like a chitshow.

[tgards79]

2. Georgia

Georgia will be crawling with all sorts of folks on Election Night. Lawyers, vote monitors, media and perhaps the National Guard.