IF (and I mean IF) Russia's pivot today is real...

[BlueCheeseAgain]

... and their face-saving story is that they've achieved their "main objectives" and are now focusing on Donbas, then I have to say this:

President Biden has handled this almost perfectly.

First, by announcing that Putin was planning on invading, it made it impossible for Russia to stage any false-flag operations or to pretend that Ukraine had provoked the conflict.

Second, he united almost all of Europe and many other democratic countries (Japan, South Korea) in imposing wide-ranging, unprecedented sanctions.

Third, even though the US clearly had a leadership role, he had the selflessness to not make himself the face of the alliance, denying Putin the opportunity to make this a struggle between Russia and the US, instead of Russia and the world.

Fourth, by not involving the US militarily, he has prevented a potentially extremely dangerous escalation of the conflict. As we've seen repeatedly, wars are much easier to begin than to end. Once American forces are involved, it's not clear if we'll be there for a month, a year, a decade, or longer.

Of course, all of this is if Russia actually is trying to find a way out of the broader war. If the main conflict goes on for months or years, then obviously the US will have to recalibrate its response.

But if things hold, it's hard to think how much more effective the US response could have been, once Putin decided to invade.

[TreasonousBastard]

1. I still thank the stars a Biden and a crew of adults is in charge...

not an orange pusbag and his crew of inebriated monkeys.

Could this be evidence there is indeed is god?

[erronis]

28. Don't know about any god, but there might be evidence of real humanity and intelligence.

If god wants to be on the good side, all the better. Unfortunately I've heard there are many, many gods - and not all are very pleasant (especially the "Bible" one.)

[DemocraticPatriot]

39. Amen! nt

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Any situation the has Putin remaining in Power is a win for Putin

He will survive to lead the next genocide.

His pivot will give the financiers in the west a crack to drive a wedge on ending sanctions.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

3. Possibly. But I don't think the West has any way of forcing him from power.

That's for Russians to decide, one way or another.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. Keeping sanctions in place would put pressure on Russia to oust Putin. Nt

[DarthDem]

4. I completely disagree

That's contrary to all evidence.

[stopdiggin]

24. A vastly weakened (and globally humiliated) Russia

will effect quite a lot of pain and sorrow on both Putin, and Russians in general. Eventually they will 'own' this - and the result won't be pretty
------ ------

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. Or, Putin will seek an easier conquest (the Baltics) to test NATO and re-assert his manhood. Nt

[stopdiggin]

26. you think Putin will want to 'test' NATO .. again?

After suffering a humiliation here? Hmmm.

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. Several important variables:

1. NATO's unwillingness to engage in direct warfare with Russia in Ukraine due to fears that Putin will use nukes if they do;

2. That fear of Putin using nukes is unlikely to dissipate if he attacks the Baltics;

3. The Baltics are smaller, with smaller armies (NATO forces don't count, see #1&2- Article Five doesn't include a courage booster shot)

4. Putin is nothing if not patient; he would likely wait until after the 2024 elections, hoping that Trump would be reinstalled and withdraw the US from NATO, in which case his invasion of the Baltics is a certainty if he remains in power.

[erronis]

29. You're taking the what-if's way to far. NATO will abolish Putin if he attacks.

One militarily aggressive action within a border state will result in a reaction that he won't be able to survive.

It won't be good for anybody but the planners know very well how to make sure this villain is not going to survive.

[Fiendish Thingy]

33. So NATO is too afraid of Putin's nukes to fight in Ukraine, won't be too scared to defend Latvia?

Article Five doesn’t come with a booster shot of courage- a piece of paper won’t erase the fear of Putin’s nukes.

Right now, NATO is too scared to even give Ukraine fighter jets, where would they find the courage to actually fight Russia directly with their own fighter planes to defend the Baltics?

Putin should be scared of our nukes, not the other way around.

[Thunderbeast]

5. Sanctions must remain until:

1. Donbas and Crimea are returned to Ukraine.

2. Military assets are rolled Back from border. 100km DMZ enforced by UN Peacekeepers.

3. Reparations to be paid to Ukraine and it's citizens. Payment in gold, oil, or gas.

4. Putin and his senior staff and advisors arrested and turned over to the World Criminal Court in The Hague.

[Ilsa]

12. Amen to all of that. Make it so.

Putin's personal assets go to Ukraine for compensation.

[speak easy]

16. Realistically speaking, Crimea is not going to be returned to Ukraine.

95%+ are Russian speakers. The ethnic Tartars and Ukrainians have left, and more than 250K Russians have moved in.

[erronis]

31. So. Ukraine also has many Russian speakers. Let's roll back to the borders post USSR

and then let the occupants vote for who they want to be part of.

Using language is a very weak rationale. Anybody speak "English" outside of England?

[speak easy]

35. I agree there should be a free and fair vote

not like the rigged farce of 2014, with Moscow's little green men making sure there were 'no mistakes'. I am stating my belief they will choose to go with 'mother'. Of course, if the economy gets truly dire in Russia, who knows.

[Justice matters.]

6. Also the bravery and intelligence of Ukraine's armed forces

AND volunteer fighters, men AND women.

[gab13by13]

7. BlueCheese,

You need to take Rachel Maddow's time slot. You completely debunked the right wing narrative that has infiltrated all of cable news.

Bravo! You have spoken truthfully and it's too bad we don't have a MSM that is a truth teller like you.

Well said.

[fierywoman]

8. I agree 1000%

[fierywoman]

9. Given the level of genocide by the Russians against the Ukranian people, shouldn't their military

be decimated, the way Japan's was after World War II?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. Yes. Trying to understand it too :)

[erronis]

32. Let's be careful - "decimated" means reduced by 1/10 (10%). Doesn't mean drastically reduced.

I'd also rather see the Russians be able to maintain a civil defense force, much like the US National Guard. There will still be local and regional problems that need more than a local police.

[fierywoman]

36. Sorry! My bad! I want the word that means drastically reduced.

[erronis]

37. You never have a bad comment. I'm just a damn nit. Keep them coming!

[fierywoman]

38. Thank you!

[fierywoman]

40. Turns out we're both right!

Definition of decimate

transitive verb
1 : to select by lot and kill every tenth man of decimate a regiment
2 : to exact a tax of 10 percent from poor as a decimated Cavalier— John Dryden
3a : to reduce drastically especially in number cholera decimated the population Kamieniecki's return comes at a crucial time for a pitching staff that has been decimated by injuries.— Jason Diamos
b : to cause great destruction or harm to firebombs decimated the city an industry decimated by recession




© 2022 Merriam-Webster, Incorporated

[erronis]

41. Thanks! That's how I learn!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. Could you please give background? Define

What pivot you are referring to? Blinked my eyes and pull this up and thought - hell the war is over. Glory B

[sprinkleeninow]

13. IF (and you mean IF), and I concur with that.

On CNN now, ЯUSSIA claims the first phase of Ukraine operation now completed.

And what in the everloving fricken hell will follow???

No trust. No quarter.

[EndlessWire]

14. I don't believe it's real.

Putin may be attempting to "settle" for Donbas, but it looks like he thinks he will be able to keep Crimea, the corridor, and Mariupol. That's a nonstarter for Ukraine. I hope that Ukraine does exactly what Ukraine wants to do, and is not pressured into a compromise.

You know darned well that Putin will return in force, if he is allowed to pull this off. He's done it repeatedly, and he has not shown any reasonable behavior to make anyone at all think differently.

I wonder how the Donbas region feels after contributing to so much destruction and human misery. Do they honestly think that the road to prosperity and happiness lies in living under Putin's thumb? Russia is in for a lot of misery with the sanctions strangling their economy, their oligarchs floating on the sea to save their yachts, and most of the American business gone from sight. I did not think that anyone on the planet seeks out a third world economy, but there it is.

[FakeNoose]

15. Pootie blinked ... Joe Biden didn't

The Russian people are going to learn - and some already know - how poorly their army has been trained, equipped and prepared for this offensive. They are going to learn that NO "de-nazi-fication" ever took place in Ukraine, and it was never needed to be done. It was a total lie and the Russian people are figuring it out.

Meanwhile the Russian economy is in tatters and soon they'll face hunger with nothing in their grocery stores. This is the makings for classic civil unrest if there ever was, and Pootie will vamoose. He'll hop on his superyacht and he'll be gone forever. I don't know where he's going and I don't care. Maybe a desert island somewhere in the South Pacific.

Thank you, Joe Biden!

[progressoid]

17. Listened to AM radio for a couple days this week and...

the basic story from those idiots is that Biden is a failure and if TFG was in office, Putin never would have invaded cuz he was afraid of TFG.

Not kidding. They really believe it.

[summer_in_TX]

18. IF is right, but IF so, besides amazing leadership from Joe Biden,

there will be a long list of others deserving acclaim. None more than Zelenskyy.

I think we'll also find Anonymous and all those others who helped get the truth out to the Russian people have played a significant role as well.

Glad they are on the side of democracy!

[DENVERPOPS]

20. Absolutely Perfect BCA

Biden handled it brilliantly.......

I wouldn't Trust putin, though.......

[PaulnFortWorth]

21. Putin Knows He's Losing

on both the military and the home front. The economic front has degenerated into a attrition game to see if NATO and the EU can keep up the sanctions. If the Ukrainians keep up without a ceasefire, Putin will lose Crimea and Russia will collapse again.

Right now it's starting to look like the Ukraine military is beating the Russians and can dictate the terms of surrender. A ceasefire will effectively cede the Crimea to Russia along with the so-called independent areas. Right now Ukraine can demand the surrender of all troops in Ukraine (including Crimea) as well as dictate reparations in dollars from frozen assets worldwide. $500 BILLION sounds nice. Take whatever is in the banks and take the rest in payments toward oil based on the price Ukraine sets for all the oil that flows through Ukraine.

[TeamProg]

22. Great call !!

IF this an original writing then I am mighty impressed.

[stopdiggin]

23. absolutely point perfect

And the only thing that I would add - is that this has been an absolutely masterful show of statesmanship and foreign policy - even if Putin does not cooperate in it's aims. It's still a brilliant performance.

(and don't you just shudder at the merest thought of the other bloviating blundering as*hole in the same role? All of Europe owes Joe Biden BIG.)
----- -----

[iemanja]

30. Putin could be regrouping

It's possible he's following the playbook from Chechnya.

After suffering an initial defeat, the Russian armed forces regrouped, only to level the area later. An episode of the Daily, the NY Times broadcast on NPR, posited that Chechnya could offer a playbook for Ukraine.

The radio podcast and article is at the link: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/24/world/russia-ukraine-war

Free here: https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/The-Daily-p952868/?topicId=170794863

Also on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-puts-putins-playbook-to-the-test/id1200361736?i=1000555092099

It's definitely worth listening to.

[MyMission]

34. They did a tremendous amount of damage, which

Probably wasn't their main objective, but definitely a goal. So they can claim success.

They caused so many to be killed and maimed and traumatized, Ukrainians (and Russians, and journalists and volunteers). And they displaced millions of people, and destroyed homes and hospitals, theatres and infrastructure, and countless lives on many levels.

Ukraine is bruised and battered, not conquered. If Russia is satisfied with that, maybe they can back off "gracefully". Lot's of discussions here and in op pieces about giving putin a way to back down, without embarrassing himself by stopping his invasion. Let's hope he's found a way.

Biden has led well throughout, reclaiming the "Leader of the Free World" title we lost with tfg.