To quit Russian gas and oil, a green-transition jubilee

[Celerity]

Europe must exit from its dependence on Russian fossil fuel by designating the next year as one of state-financed domestic conversions.

https://socialeurope.eu/to-quit-russian-gas-and-oil-a-green-transition-jubilee



Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced the European Union finally to face its long-term dependence on Russian gas and oil. And the implication is clear: the EU must extract itself now. But as it prepares to undertake a swift, state-led energy rethink—an undertaking only conceivable in a wartime framework—the crucial question is whether decision-makers will lean into the green transition or fall back on conventional fossil-fuel solutions.

The European Commission proposal issued on March 8th, REPowerEU, presents this fork in the road as a non-choice. Given the degree to which member states are locked into fossil-fuel sources, the commission sees only one short-term solution, which is to stock up on gas and oil (much of it from Russia) while negotiating delivery from third countries for next winter.

Meanwhile, of course, the green transition should be ramped up to accelerate electrification and energy efficiency. But the commission does not expect the effects to kick in before 2030. In a narrow sense, its proposal is thus ‘business as usual’, following the pathway already established by the European Green Deal. With REPowerEU on the table, greens on the one hand and conservatives on the other will debate the pressing need for a green transition versus the Realpolitik of territorial defence. The opposition between the two is however false.

Strategic vulnerabilities

What Europe should learn from the invasion is that its dependence on Russian fossil fuel represents not only a geopolitical risk. European policy-makers should also pay careful attention to the strategic vulnerabilities centralised energy systems present for the Ukrainians. By seizing Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, the Russian army was able in a single move to take control of a significant portion of Ukraine’s generating capacity.

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[Walleye]

1. It is an ill wind that blows no good, as my mom used to say