Why Putin Is Probably Panicking

[MineralMan]

So, Uncle Vlad thought he'd send his troops into Ukraine and take over that country in a few days. He signaled his intentions by massing up his ground forces just outside of Ukraine for quite some time. We all noticed that.

Then, in they went, sort of. One of his main columns got stalled outside of Kyiv. Other tanks, armored vehicles, missile launchers, and other vehicles got destroyed by Ukrainian troops carrying handheld anti-tank weapons. His air superiority, which he considered to be absolutely a can't lose prospect, got shot down by Ukrainian AF pilots in old Soviet-era fighter jets and guys on the ground with man portable anti-aircraft missiles. Helicopters, too, got destroyed by Ukrainian forces. His supply chain to his forces has broken down, as well.

Things were not going well for Putin's forces. Instead of rapidly overwhelming Ukraine, they were forced to resort to longer-range missiles fired from within Russian territory.

All of this got noticed by the US and NATO countries. Putin's military turned out to be a paper tiger. that's not a good thing by any definition.

That said, Russia has destroyed a lot of civilian targets, which isn't all that hard to do from a distance. But, Russian ground and air forces are not succeeding in the main thing they were tasked with. Several Generals and other high-ranking officers have been killed, perhaps even by their own troops.

Worst of all, those failures have been monitored, noted, and recorded by NATO and others. Putin has only managed to demonstrate just how weak his conventional military field operations truly are.

So, the Russian Bear flexes its muscles and is seen to be lacking. Not as fearsome as Putin desired. Not at all.

Meanwhile, heavy economic sanctions are beginning to be felt in Russia and by his oligarchs, who suddenly find themselves without access to their means. What are they to do?

This is not a good look for Uncle Vlad. So, does he double down and raise the ante with his big nuclear guns? I think not. Are they even reliably operational in the first place? Perhaps not, and he dare not reveal that, if it is the case.

What's a Russian leader to do? I suspect he is going to declare some sort of Pyrrhic victory, cut his losses, and settle for less than he hoped. It has not been a good effort, and his forces have failed to overwhelm, which was the minimum performance needed to maintain Putin's fearsome threats.

That's why Putin is quietly panicking in whatever bunker he has retreated to. Things are not going well for him.

[empedocles]

1. Additionally, he has strong, potential enemies within russia, who are not wishing him well.

[MineralMan]

2. Yes, which is why he's in hiding, I suspect.

[FreepFryer]

3. Agreed! I found his culture war pivot and JK Rowling comments very telling... and reminiscent.

Ukrainian refusals in the face of delusional Russian dreams of forcing cultural values upon them bear similarities with American refusals in the face of GOP forcing their white supremacist values upon us.

Antidemocracy and amorality.

[erronis]

20. Good way of putting it: similarity with GOP forcing their white supremacist values upon us.

The white supremacy movement that was epitomized during the Ketanji Brown Jackson hearing by the (r)epuglicon senators does not represent anywhere near the majority of white voters, let alone the rest of us.

Yet they keep on trying. Flogging that old dead confederate flag.

[FreepFryer]

25. Yes! As MTG puts it, they are the GOP base. As Ginni Thomas puts it, the GOP charade. (Nt)

[FreepFryer]

35. Found this :)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216526058

[erronis]

60. Thanks. Good observation by Krugman.

Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
I can't be the only one noticing that Putin's response to failure in Ukraine is extremely Trumpian. 1. Deny that anything has gone wrong 2. Insist that your own decisions have always been perfect 3. Whine about cancel culture

[uponit7771]

4. THIS! 👉🏾 "Are they even reliably operational in the first place? Perhaps not" Failure rate of RA

... missiles hitting UKR is nearly 60% !!!

[MineralMan]

6. Yes, that, too, has been noticed by the West.

It all has been a very poor showing on Russia's part. Joe Biden has acted very intelligently throughout this, and has relied on economic sanctions and supplying Ukraine with the kind of weaponry it has already shown is effective against Russian forces, such as they are.

Now, he is re-uniting NATO nations in defense of the West. Like the US, they are watching Russia stumble in its attack on Ukraine. Russia is now indication that it will refocus its efforts to hold the Donbass region, rather than take control of Ukraine, which it has pretty much demonstrated it cannot do.

The Russian Bear is old and fat and no longer the fearsome beast it once was.

[uponit7771]

9. +1, "Joe Biden has acted very intelligently throughout this" Yep to the degree that Andrea Mitchell

... just gave Biden what looks like a true to the heart compliment saying Biden is "uniquely made for this time" [sic]

That's some accomplishment

[uponit7771]

11. Also, there are a couple of musings that Putrid NEEDS NATO to enter the fight right now because ..

... being beat by the "backward" Ukrainians would be much worse PR than NATO and the "west".

[Eyeball_Kid]

15. Russia is trying an old trick.

They are pretending to soften their attacks on UKR for the purpose of normalizing their occupations of Donbass and Crimea. It's a ploy. NEVER trust what Russia or Putin says. When they withdraw all of their military from UKR and they stop shelling, AND they make reparations for the severe damage they've done to human victims and UKR's infrastructure, then they're talking turkey. Otherwise, it's all smoke and mirrors. Dimes to donuts, satellite images will catch the Russian's refortifying their supply lines in the north of UKR with personnel and equipment. They WILL conduct a resurgent attack as soon as they feel ready.

Putin is the 21st century face of Evil. As such, he won't disappoint. His destructiveness won't fade because he's pretending to "narrow" its focus. He still wants a Russian Empire, and he'll strive to get it. He views the UKR resistance as a minor setback.

[Lonestarblue]

16. Plus he needs time to rebuild and train his ground forces.

If the West allows that, he will be back and this war will continue. He wants a Russian Empire with himself as the Czar. While we all think he is delusional in that goal, dictators with the wealth and power to insulate themselves from severe sanctions don’t stop trying to achieve their goals.

In addition, why should Ukraine give up significant territory in Donbass, which would allow Russia to build more military bases there to prepare for future attacks closer to Kviv. Putin is the aggressor. He should not be allowed any prize.

[erronis]

22. And he doesn't have a choice anymore. He will be personally tainted as long as he lives.

He can't go back and fix the crimes that he has committed - even by declaring success in Donbas. He is permanently a war criminal and will pay.

[SheltieLover]

48. Ruskie engineering

[Ocelot II]

5. What happened the last time a dictator whose war was going badly hid in a bunker?

[MineralMan]

7. Hmm...

Excellent question.

[uponit7771]

12. +1, ... 77 million people voted for him, then he tried to overturn the gov? /sarc

[brush]

13. Putin's bunker is probably five stories deep under concrete and rebar...

stocked with food, vodka and all the caviar his entourage will need for three months, or however long it takes for the radiation to diminish.

Forgive me. I know that sounds dystopian but Putin has shown himself to be cray-cray and not the ultra smart puppet master pulling trump's strings, an image that he built up over the last few years without actually saying very much.

I hope he doesn't take the bunker route because of his failure in Ukraine.

[COL Mustard]

19. You know that the tallest building in Moscow

Is the Lubyanka? You can see Siberia from the basement!

[brush]

61. Sounds like you're channeling Putin's current mindset.

[COL Mustard]

64. Da. 15 years for you.

And 15 years for YOU! Everybody gets 15 years...just like on decadent Oprah show.

[dalton99a]

8. A Potemkin military that excels at parades

Good thing they are exposed for the whole world to see

[MineralMan]

10. Yes. So I also believe.

Putin has demonstrated very well just how weak Russia actually is. Embarrassingly so.

Of course, Ukraine is suffering badly from this ill-considered attack. We cannot forget that, and should maintain the economic sanctions to the point that Russia is reduced to a low level of capability in all areas.

President Biden appears to have said, "Enough!"

[stopdiggin]

14. and yet just the other day

Biden was hit with another "sanctions don't work" question. Ummm? Want to take a little wager on that? Russia's economy versus the rest of the world ...? Hard times ahead for the Russian people.

(and for gods sake - keep Joe Biden in power - and give him the tools to do the, rather excellent, job that he is doing!)

[liberalla]

41. I remember how impressed drumpf was by military parades... declaring

that we would have one here ordering the Pentagon to plan one...
He was giddy like a little kid...


Trump likes the "show".
The substance? eh, not so much.

[Hieronymus Phact]

58. Interesting choice of words

Potemkin village
The term comes from stories of a fake portable village built by Grigory Potemkin, former lover of Empress Catherine II, solely to impress the Empress during her journey to Crimea in 1787.

[pandr32]

17. I agree with you

Except that it seems that if Putin were to claim a victory and "cut his losses, and settle for less than he hoped" it wouldn't end things. Putin has revealed who he is to the world, to those who get rich at his side, to his military, and to his people. Nobody can trust him--ever. Life would not continue as before for Russia as long as Putin remains in power. He would have to be held to account in one way or another.

[Dale in Laurel MD]

18. If I were in Putin's shoes,

I'd be casting anxious glances at China, which has a larger and better equipped military than Ukraine, a looooong border with Russia, and has had a month now to watch an ongoing shitshow of Russian incompetence and ineptitude.

[MineralMan]

28. Well, China is watching, too, no doubt.

Russia's not looking all that strong right now.

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. If Putin remains in power, he will strike again

My guess is the Baltics, after the 2024 presidential election, where he hopes to reinstall Trump in the White House in the hopes Trump will withdraw the US from NATO.

If the US leaves NATO, article five will be shown to be meaningless (might be so even if US stays in NATO, by the current fear of Putin’s threats to use nukes in Ukraine).

[Texin]

23. "Are they even reliably operational in the first place?" That's the $64,000 question.

And, for that matter, do we even know whether our own nuclear stockpile are operational either?

[MineralMan]

27. Well, I'm betting ours is in great shape.

We're pretty good about keeping things up and running.

I'd prefer that everyone's nuclear arsenal was gone, though. But, that's an unlikely thing.

[paleotn]

37. You can bet on it.

We spend a whole lotta money, a sizeable chunk of our $750B defense budget, to ensure exactly that. Testing of both strategic and conventional systems are extensive. Though we don't test nuclear warheads above or below ground anymore, they are tested extensively electronically. We learned an awful lot from the debacle of the Mark 14 torpedo. Make damn sure your shit actually works before you go to war.

The Russians might not have the "post grift" resources left over to do the kind of testing and training we do. Their pilot training is an good example. Russian aviators get a tiny fraction of the cockpit time per year compared to their American, German and British counterparts and it shows. From Syria and Ukraine, it appears they're incapable of doing complex, multi aircraft, multi service operations.

[MineralMan]

56. Yes. That's my guess about the Russians, too.

I'm not sure of it, but it seems likely.

One thing I am sure of, though, is that there is a plan in place, should Putin order the use of any tactical nukes in Ukraine. It hasn't been stated, but I suspect that NATO has a plan all ready to execute if that should happen, and it won't be something Putin will have much time to think about.

Do we know where Putin is? No doubt we do, and precisely. If he goes nuclear, it will be tantamount to suicide for him.

[Mr.Bill]

24. All the sanctions must remain in place

until Russia pays for every dollar of damage they did to Ukraine and gets rid of all their nuclear weapons.

[multigraincracker]

26. Best part of Putin panicking....

That means the GOP is freaking out.
I’m having a good feeling about Midterms this year. What ever Putin does now can only hurt his Puppet Party.

[Bayard]

29. At this point,

He shouldn't be allowed to just withdraw and go home, declaring victory, and leaving Ukraine in shambles. No. No, and no.

Putin is worth billions--maybe trillions--all by himself. It would be a start to find all that money, probably even some here in the U.S., and make it a down payment. Keep the sanctions in place.

[KS Toronado]

30. I've often wondered if Putler's advisers & generals

have been shading the truth to him about how good they are doing in this war so as not to anger him.
If so it could prolong this war.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

31. I think the nuclear strike threat is specifically to deter NATO

The irony there: back in the mid to late 70s "go nuclear early" was a NATO mantra when it was feared that Soviet tanks would overwhelm the Fulda Gap and drive toward the Atlantic Coast of France. At this point, if NATO did intervene in Ukraine, it appears likely that they could destroy much of the Russian ground force and air force to similar effect to what was done to the Iraqui army. I'm not advocating that - a Russia wounded in this manner would very likely respond with WMDs and a global holocaust could promptly ensue.

I suspect that Putin will now purge his armed forces and intelligence community in a manner close to what Stalin did and will root out industrialists and erstwhile allies. An oligarchy does not create a competitive, efficient economy. If Russia wants the kind of military dominance they crave, then they will need their next 30 years to be more like China's past 30. Also, your military and especially your intelligence community cannot be filled with yes-men.

[halfulglas]

32. We have to remember, too, how Russia entered WWII after having a treaty with Hitler

To divide Poland and the Baltic countries between them. After that happened, THEN Hitler turned his Army to the USSR. And after the war Russia forcefully scooped up the Baltics and half of Germany. Stalin tried to starve Ukraine to will. Yes, Russia suffered terrible losses in WWII but in their pity party about how the West treats them they refuse to realize we can't trust them.

[C Moon]

33. I wonder if maybe oligarchs didn't want to spend any of Russia's (their) money on military upgrades.

They were investing in taking over the US, buying several yachts, land, property, etc.

[MineralMan]

36. I'm pretty sure that Putin and his cronies

have robbed Russia blind. Even to the point of stripping the country bare. It's not that different from the Tsarist days, when the aristocracy did the same thing to Russia and surrounding areas. They took it all and told the people countless lies. The Tsarists and the Putinites are one and the same, really.

How much of Russia is actually left? I don't know. If the nation's wealth has been plundered almost completely, everything could collapse pretty quickly, I'd think. By that I mean in a couple of decades from now.

Things could get pretty desperate, and that's dangerous. We need to keep a close eye on things, and I'm sure we are doing just that. We don't know what the Intelligence Community knows, but it's probably more than we can actually imagine.

Managed properly, it might be possible to capture much of the wealth that has been stolen from the people of Russia. If we're smart, we'll figure out a way to return much of it to the Russian people, assuming they can manage to create a new order there.

We'll see. I simply don't know enough to make longer range predictions. Even in the short term, I don't know what a desperate Putin might cook up for the planet. With any luck, we have the capability to prevent that. It wouldn't surprise me if we had that capability. No doubt there is stuff going on behind the scenes that we know nothing about. That's how it always is.

[C Moon]

46. Thanks for the reply. Answered my question perfectly.

[Warpy]

34. One old lady who was interviewed (old women not being afraid to speak out)

said that the last 22 years have seen the near total destruction of both the social safety net and the military in the name of greed.

Everybody in the system, top to bottom, has been chiseling money out of the system, trying to get rich or just get by.

That means falsified production reports at factories, substandard parts, deferred maintenance, and skimping on training. That sort of thing is built into autocratic systems. Expect things to be tightened up considerably, they wont be a paper tiger in another decade or so.

Still only a rethinking of their whole system will bring it up to full potential, and that means empowering citizens, something Russian leaders and owners have never done.

[MineralMan]

40. Frankly, I wouldn't expect that there will be a quick recovery from this

stupidity on Russia's part. Instead, it could easily lead to a complete economic collapse there. Or, not. I just don't know enough to be able to think of all of the complications that could come out of this. I'm not sure anyone does, but I am sure that there are people who have information that is not available to us.

President Biden is not flying blind. He knows a lot of stuff that isn't public information. I'm sure he's sharing some of what he knows with our allies. This new solidarity in NATO supports that idea, I believe.

[Warpy]

44. Of course you're correct about that

but they've admitted being surprised by just how badly the Russian military has performed to date.

A lot of the reason for that was in the old Russian lady's statements and my post.

[MineralMan]

51. Russia's military is acting like a mid-20th century military.

Problem is, we are in the 21st Century and that old style is no longer tenable. An army can no longer sneak up on a region. We have images of everything now, from space. And Russia is still depending in large part on a ground army. That is simply no longer a valid strategic possibility.

Even without a massive air response to that slow-moving ground attack, it's vulnerability to a defense as simple as man-carried anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons is remarkable. We know where all of the forces are at all times. It's child's play to attack something like that and cause enormous damage. Worse, logistical support for a ground army is almost impossible when everything can be seen and mapped.

Imagine how quickly the Russian ground forces could be eliminated from the air, if someone like the US or major NATO countries decided to do that. Russian strategy is completely antiquated. The only reason they can use short range missile and artillery to attack cities in Ukraine is because nobody is attacking any forces inside Russia. If NATO were doing that, all of those missile attacks and artillery attacks would end very quickly.

But, NATO doesn't want to do that, due to a potential nuclear threat. Otherwise, this would already be over.

[Warpy]

68. They haven't been even that efficient

They thought they'd be fighting a mid 20th century blitzkrieg to gain territory but with the addition of a few high tech advantages. What they didn't anticipate is a smarter guerilla campaign that obliterated their nice, neat lines of tanks on highways or the vulnerability of their supply lines and unmaintained vehicles that ran out of gas, broke down, blew their tires, or had other completely preventable problems. Then they realized roads were a bad idea and they had to dive for cover, but the trees weren't leafed out yet and it's mud season, so when they left the roads, the cover was insufficient and many of them just plain got stuck.

Add to that the poor communication among units and with the air force and you have poor performance that has astonished anyone who has been paying attention.

I do think you'll eventually see strikes against missile and artillery batteries in Russia, but Ukraine is going to have to do that, themselves. They will probably be using ordinance kindly donated by NATO, so I'm not sure how well that will go over.

As for Russia's threat of tactical nukes, perhaps a neutral power should point out exactly where the fallout is most liklely to be heaviest, right over Putin's Black Sea palace.

[SheltieLover]

49. Precisely what qpukes want to do to our institutions!

Should serve as a warning to voters!

[paleotn]

38. +1000!

[TheBlackAdder]

39. Ukraine is not a threat to Domestic Russia, Vlad is. He's decimating his own military.

.

He should move to one of those Russian test islands near the Artic and nuke himself.

.

[MineralMan]

42. Yes, of course.

Putin may have cast his own lot in this fiasco. He's certainly exposing the weakness of the Russian military right now. It's totally embarrassing. What he will do with that, I don't know. He remains a very dangerous individual.

[TheBlackAdder]

43. World Leaders who verbally threatened Nuclear War like a child: Kim Jung-Un, Putin & Trump

.

What's the commonality?

.

[MineralMan]

45. All tyrants or would-be tyrants.

That's what they have in common.

They rule through fear. Sometimes they don't survive, in the end.

[Demsrule86]

47. Excellent summary...and I agree completely...thanks MM K&R

[SheltieLover]

50. Meanwhile, Joe is visiting with NATO & Poland!

Has to frost pootin's ass!

[MineralMan]

53. Yes, and Putin doesn't dare attack that visit in Poland.

[FakeNoose]

52. Pootie will get his Li'l Buddy to announce that he "won" just to save face

[ShazamIam]

54. That is very good summation of Putin's own peril, I find him an example of believing his

own propaganda about Ukraine. Reminds me of our our conservatives keep believing their own propaganda about U.S. people.


Edit:typo

[Quixote1818]

55. This is pretty much what all the news annalists are saying. nt

[MineralMan]

57. Well, it's not all that difficult to figure out.

Putin has put on a demonstration in Ukraine of just how weak his traditional military forces are. That can't be missed by anyone who is paying any attention at all.

What is happening behind the scenes in our own military planning and in NATO's, I do not know, but I'm absolutely certain that planning for a wide range of possible scenarios is already complete. We're not stupid.

So, news analysts are seeing the same things we're seeing.

[Jon King]

59. Lets review this guy Putin who TFG says is "smart".

Hmmm, Putin is smart? Russia was joining the world's economy and growing, deals with multiple countries, a large source for metals needed for the new green economy, its young brains getting education and returning to build Russia's future.

In a month he turned it into a 3rd world economy, countries working to find permanent alternate energy and metals sources, his young brains leaving in droves, and his military has been exposed as a mess.

Yup, right out of the Trump business playbook.

[Ford_Prefect]

62. Here's the thing. Putin can declare a fake victory or whatever he thinks will cover his ass.

His army is bogged down inside Ukraine with no exit strategy, no means to resupply their forward units nor a safe corridor to withdraw through. The important issue here is how do all those Russian troops get home? Do they leave their machines behind and walk? Do they board tour busses, or buy oyster cards and get on a train? They sure aren't going to fly out and no one is gonna let them drive their tanks away. Would you want to be tail-end Charlie in that parade?

...And then there's the question of what happens to them when they get home? Indeed, what happens to Putin when they start talking about how it was?

[MineralMan]

63. And that's Putin's dilemma, isn't it?

It appears that he didn't think it through thoroughly enough.

[Ford_Prefect]

65. Well, just imagine that...How did mister smarter than anyone else get there?

[MineralMan]

66. Maybe he isn't as smart as he thinks he is.

That's my guess. He's now in a very precarious position, it seems to me.

[Ford_Prefect]

67. I suspect his next move is to disappear to a retirement Semi-detached in Torqay with BoJo.

[Quakerfriend]

69. His biggest problem is that he's now been

declared a war criminal & this is not going away.

[empedocles]

70. The pressure on putin just keeps on building and building