Why redistricting has stalled in 4 unfinished states

[brooklynite]

Politico

The final stage of the redistricting cycle has arrived: gridlock.

Spats between governors and state legislators — and between different Republican factions — have brought map-making to a standstill in the final four states still without new congressional lines for the 2022 elections. With filing deadlines looming, 44 House seats are still outstanding in Louisiana, New Hampshire, Missouri and, most importantly, Florida, which has 28 districts all by itself.

The stakes in each state are high, with seats that could flip either way and with the GOP gunning for the majority in a closely divided House. There are Republicans in each state who see their maps as opportunities to answer aggressive Democratic gerrymandering in states like Illinois and New York.

Some of these redistricting delays were expected — Louisiana’s term-limited Democratic governor, John Bel Edwards, made clear from the start that he would veto a map if the GOP-controlled legislature didn’t create a second district where Black voters could elect their candidate of choice.

[gab13by13]

1. The US Supreme Court will pick the map,

like it did in Wisconsin.

[rlegro]

3. More accurately, like the U.S. Supreme Court is doing

Wisconsin actually remains a fifth state where redistricting is still not complete. The conservative state Supreme Court picked a set of maps submitted by Democratic Gov. Evers, with districts somewhat less gerrymandered than what Republicans wanted. Evers couldn't go further because the state high court ordered earlier that the new maps should be as close as possible to the 2010 maps, which were drawn exclusively by Republicans to be the most gerrymandered in the nation. (why should that be a new standard? no need to ask).

Because Evers' maps made the state legislative and congressional races slightly more competitive, on paper, the GOP-majority legislature appealed to the U.S. Supremes -- even though those Republican "representatives" usually mouth off about how the feds should butt out of state business. The U.S. high court (in an unsigned "emergency" shadow decision, ordered the state Supreme Court to reconsider its order, and to provide more evidence that its ruling was consistent with all relevant laws.

All the state Supremes need do now is say they've already done their best to justify the Evers' maps and then the high court will presumably throw those maps out -- with the next statewide election coming in just a week. Total chaos. There is one member of the state court's ordinarily conservative majority who is a swing vote and he might make the court provide the needed paperwork justification -- which isn't that complex, as far as I can tell but as usual in GOP law-making and jurisprudence replete with fuzzy lingo. But if Republicans run true to form, they'll milk this for all its worth and blame Democrats for the snafu. For them, as usual, not to decide is to decide.

Also, just for the record: The Evers maps created one additional black-majority legislative district in the City of Milwaukee and made a couple of congressional districts more competitive up-state. Marginal gains in the very best outcome. But Repubs want to have it all and decide it all.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Maybe the diverse array of outcomes is a blessing

For all its faults, the Constitution did a pretty good job of fracturing power into parts unable to be easily concentrated.

[pecosbob]

4. Just like Politico to blame Dems for aggressive gerrymandering

There are Republicans in each state who see their maps as opportunities to answer aggressive Democratic gerrymandering in states like Illinois and New York.

Typical MSM propaganda...