Democratic Donors Are Getting Bamboozled

[brooklynite]

The Bulwark

There are a few tried and true ways for House candidates to raise money. You can have an ad go viral. Or run against a hated opponent with a large national profile.

One method that is not guaranteed to bring in the big bucks: Run in a race where the candidate has a chance to win in a narrow upset.

When Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert heckled President Biden during his State of the Union address earlier this month, MTG’s Democratic opponent, Marcus Flowers, went to Twitter to pledge that “on November 8th, I will unseat her.” The tweet, which was promptly followed by an ActBlue link soliciting donations for Flowers’ campaign, went viral across the leftwing Twitterverse. What the hordes of online donors either didn’t know or didn’t care about was the fantastical aspect of Flowers’ tweet: He will not unseat Greene this fall. Sorry.

Every Democrat fantasizes about seeing Marjorie Taylor Greene go down in flames. But the reality is that she won her district by a landslide in 2020 and is on track to do the same in 2022. Trump won in her newly-drawn district with 68.1 percent of the vote in 2020—a bigger vote share than he got in the very red states such as Idaho (63.9 percent), Mississippi (57.6 percent), or Nebraska (58.5 percent).

There is no Democratic pathway to victory in Greene’s district. Even for a high roller like Flowers. This fact has not stopped Democratic donors from giving Flowers more than $4.6 million in 2021 alone (87 percent via small-dollar donations of less than $200). That’s a haul exceeded by only a handful of other campaigns.

Think as well about how much cash flowed to Amy McGrath's hopeless challenge to McConnell.

According to my data model, there are twelve Republicans who ARE vulnerable, and 18 Democratic seats that are vulnerable. If we want to hold the House, we need to invest strategically, not waste money in feel good pipe dreams.

[empedocles]

1. Strategically, yes.

[Torchlight]

2. How does one effectively get out the message

that the financial support for particular Democratic candidates who are supported by other Democrats is a waste according to your data model?

[brooklynite]

4. I share my model with anyone who asks...

The information is clear and compelling as to which races are competitive and which are not. But you need to want to provide support on an objective basis.

[Torchlight]

8. My mistake, I had thought this a messaging concern/strategy.

e.g., how to effectively message a Texas Democrat not to waste time, effort or money on the governor's race and send their support somewhere else.

[WhiteTara]

3. I would love it if you

started a thread something like NKPolitic's senate race posts. If there are vulnerable seats we can work on strategically, I would love to know which ones. I'm working on a hopeless race for governor in Arkansas, it would be nice to contribute to a race that has a chance.

[brooklynite]

6. Will do. Waiting for the last State lines to get locked.

[gab13by13]

5. Did you run this by Howard Dean?

[brooklynite]

7. No, because (for the hundredth time) Dean's "50 State Strategy" had nothing to do with candidates.

It had to do with State Party organization and funding. That's helpful, but it doesn't largely make any one of them more winnable.

FWIW, I spent the weekend with DNC Leadership. They're spending a lot of money (some of it mine) on State Party investments. They're not picking out candidates.

[gab13by13]

11. Thanks for the clarification.

I disagree with McGrath in Kentucky. I am not a conspiracy nut job, but the results of that election did not match up with exit polling.

If I were a conspiracy nut job, I would say we need to audit those ES&S machines, not the Dominion.

I totally understand your position. In my district in Pa. I wouldn't spend much money on Jesus Christ if were to come down and run for office here. Speaking of which, I hope our SC makes its decision on no excuse absentee ballots pretty soon, my application is pending.

[brooklynite]

12. Those would be the same machines that elected Governor Beshear (D) a year earlier?

People may not like McConnell personally, but he appeals to KY voters. (And so does Rand Paul; Charlie Booker's an appealing guy, but he won't win).

[keithbvadu2]

15. Would believe Trump over Jesus for credibility...

Would believe Trump over Jesus for credibility...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/11/21/trump_voter_if_jesus_christ_came_down_from_the_cross_and_told_me_trump_was_with_russia_i_wouldnt_believe_him.html

About 2:55 on the timeline.

"Let me tell you," he continued. "If Jesus Christ gets down off the cross and told me Trump is with Russia, I would tell him, hold on a second, I need to check with the president if it is true. That is how confident I feel in the president."

?t=170

[MagickMuffin]

9. So, we should just give up and not support candidates running for office?

Seems short sighted and defeatist.


"Hey y'all we can't win against this candidate so give your money to an incumbent instead."

Yeah, that's a winning strategy.


And I don't believe MoscowMitch won fair and square, but that's a discussion for another day.

[brooklynite]

10. Do you have unlimited funds? I don't

If your resources are finite, any decision to give money to candidate A is a decision not to give money to candidate B.

And I'm not proposing to "give money to an incumbent". I'm pointing out who actually NEEDS and CAN USE financial support with the goal of maximizing wins.

[leftstreet]

13. You make a great case

and you have consistently here

The problem may be deeper than any of us regular people can solve. It's impossible for me to imagine that strategists from both parties don't already understand exactly what you're talking about. And yet, they continue with the same formula for...reasons

[Pobeka]

14. I've been wondering about this very question.

This year I plan to donate a lot, but have been scratching my head over who to give it to in order to make a difference.

I have already supported Democracy Docket, which of course is not candidate specific and important nonetheless.

So I look forward to your data model.

[brooklynite]

16. An additional point: Marjorie Taylor-Greene has no political power.

All she has is a media voice that bothers liberals. The way to GIVE her power is to let Republicans take control of the House. I can promise that conservative funders won't be targeting Pelosi (D+38) or Schiff (D+23) or AOC (D+25), because they know THOSE are hopeless causes. They'll target vulnerable Democrats in competitive districts.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

17. I am on a number of email lists and dialing for dollar lists

You have to be selective who you give to. For example, I am on Fetterman's and the Justice Democrats' email lists. I read these emails for laughs and there is no way that I will donate to Fetterman in the primary or to the Justice Democrats under any circumstance

[JustAnotherGen]

20. This times 10

I'm also giving to Team Blue Pac to go over the limits. They align with my beliefs. Money well donated.

[lagomorph777]

18. Please list your 18 vulnerable seats!

[ibegurpard]

19. I believe it is important to have a viable presence EVERYWHERE

Even in districts where we have no shot. We need to run up numbers statewide and build infrastructure outside of strongholds.
But people do need to be educated about where we have realistic chances for actual electoral success and put the serious resources at work there.
MTG isn't going anywhere so if you donate to her opponent be open-eyed about what you're investing in.

[Liberal In Texas]

21. Even in districts with "no shot" the party needs to have somebody to run against the repub.

For years here in Texas when one would go to vote, the only choices in some races were Repub. and Libertarian. Some choice. This is one of the reasons those with a progressive bent didn't bother to even go to the polls. This just compounds itself after years and years of neglect.

The Democratic party needs to run a candidate in EVERY race no matter how hopeless it looks in the polls or what the district did historically. And those candidates need some kind of funding.