Lawd! I have NEVER seen this from the NWS before:

[Are_grits_groceries]

“@nytjim: Wow. RT @thinkprogress: A personal plea from Gary of the National Weather Service


TWC meteorologist @JimCantore "This is certainly the biggest thing I've covered in my career".

I don't even know what to say....
Been through many hurricanes and such but never heard this.

[WillyT]

1. Holy Shit !!! - That's Some Message !!!

[calimary]

161. Holy Shit !!! - is about it!

I shared this on Facebook. This is scary stuff.














...but, but, but, there is no climate change...




...and big government baaaaaaaad!

[graywarrior]

2. I hope people listen.

[Are_grits_groceries]

5. If anybody stays,

they should write their names and SSNs on their bodies with permanent markers.
No I'm not kidding.

[dixiegrrrrl]

34. Down here in the Gulf of Mexico area

local authorities have been reported to persuade people to evacuate by reading them a form
which clearly states that they know the consequences of staying put.
The form asks for Soc Sec. # and other ID information "so the people at the morgue can notify your next of kin after the storm".
Sign the form or evacuate are the options.
I hear tell it has been a pretty effective tactic.

[Mariana]

84. I've heard that story, and I believe it.

Another one I heard was that when Frederic was coming in 1979, the Mobile police and the sheriff's deputies went around and arrested everyone who refused to evacuate certain very susceptible areas, and they all spent the night in the Mobile County jail. I don't know if that one is true, but that's one story that went around explaining why so few people died in that one.

[TBF]

85. Yup - I've seen folks put their ss# on their arm in perm marker

in case they end up needing to be identified (some folks refuse to evacuate because of pets and/or other issues)

[Care Acutely]

98. Torso is better than an appendage

If one truly believes it may become needed.

[TBF]

115. Grim but important - yes that makes more sense. nt

[trof]

124. Guess where I am. Boston.

Picked a bad time to visit the grandkids.

[dixiegrrrrl]

158. GULP!!!!!!!

Well, your hurricane experience will come in handy, perhaps.

Have to chuckle, at you traveling out of state to find a hurricane...

[trof]

164. Yeah, ain't that dumb. We're fine.

A little rain, a little wind, that's all.

[kentauros]

7. And that's the key to it all right there.

I remember a conservative acquaintance last year complaining vociferously of all the hype over Irene, and that all they got "was a little rain." I think he lives in NYC. I haven't seen any posts from him in the past few days, though, so I'm guessing he's finally taking this stuff seriously.

Still, there are folks here that while they may be taking the impact seriously, they are dismissing any lingering problems from widespread damage. Sometimes, experience is the only teacher acceptable.

[graywarrior]

15. There are some guys I know who can't wait to drive down to the beach

I hope access is blocked by police.

[kentauros]

17. Are they surfers?

[graywarrior]

42. No, they're fuckface idiots

You know, the ones that smash beer cans on their foreheads.

[kentauros]

43. Oh, okay.

Because surfers are often flocking the shores about now, too.

[graywarrior]

53. Yeah, I saw some surfers and kiters earlier on the beach

[DollarBillHines]

153. I rode 13-foot swells at Freeport, TX

I think it was during Camille.

We had to carry our boards across the bridge in the teeth of that wind.

Looking back, that was right up there on The List of the Most Dumb-ass Stunts I Have Pulled.

[graywarrior]

159. In 1954, my dad took by 4 year old brother out in the wind

and held him by his hands as the wind picked him up off the ground sending his feet and legs flying like a flag. My mother was freaking out and yelling from the second story window. I'm amazed the three of us kids made it through childhood.

[DollarBillHines]

160. Did we have the same dad?

During either Audrey or Carla (both of which tore our roof off), my dad made sails of tarp with a harness for us to wear.

We climbed up on one of our big trucks and jumped. I can still see the ground rushing by.
We did it, over and over, until I whanged into a tree.

Mom was livid.

[graywarrior]

163. LOL, that's hilarious!

I remember the time my dad and uncles were putting lit firecrackers inside empty beer cans. Dad ended up in the hospital with a gash in his thigh that needed 50 stitches. I guess that was nothing compared to getting shot at in the helmet as he parachuted onto Corregidor in WWII.

[CoffeeCat]

51. I am from the Midwest, but I lived...

In Boston and went through hurricane Gloria in the 1980's. I couldn't believe it when local Boston media reported that a group of college students had organized a sand volleyball game as the hurricane hit.

And this was a serious, dangerous storm.

Adrenaline junkies, idiots and people who believe that are invincible--do these kinds of crazy things.

[graywarrior]

54. They have hurricane parties at houses on the beach

Cwazy mo'foes.

[RebelOne]

149. As I child in Miami, I had been through many hurricanes.

My mother always had hurricane parties. It is nice to have company when you are scared out of your wits by the driving rain and howling winds, and the house shaking.

[graywarrior]

150. True.

I just saw a vid of some teenagers walking along Revere Beach. I have to admit, my dad would have done the same thing when he was that age.

[HockeyMom]

67. We lived in Queens during Gloria

All our power lines were underground and we didn't lose power. LI, though, was very bad with Gloria because of above ground lines and trees coming down on them.

[graywarrior]

78. We're such an advanced society, yet every time there's a storm, we lose power.

[dixiegrrrrl]

86. Many of them earned Darwin Awards.

Justifiably so.

[Warpy]

145. I was on the south side of the Cape

and went to the beach (or a quarter mile from where it usually was) before the storm really hit hard. However, things down there are built to withstand storms like that and it wasn't a direct hit--I'm not completely stupid. 80 knot winds aren't all that unusual on the south Cape. Snowplows are hooked up year round to get deep sand off the roads.

We decided we'd had enough sightseeing when the car started to roll backward against the emergency brake and spent the rest of the storm indoors by kerosene lamp, our cats purring in our lap and strays I'd been rehabbing hanging out in the cellar.

Storm watching is a big deal if you live near the shore. There isn't a hell of a lot more to do in the off season.

I don't think the beach volleyball got very far. Likely they quit after about 5 minutes of getting sandblasted.

Sightseeing was better the day after, hundreds of boats whose owners couldn't be arsed to rig them for storms were smashed on bridges and up on the shore, harbormasters red faced and screaming about lawsuits.

[hootinholler]

83. Sounds like natural selection in action

I say let 'em go. Someday they may decide to vote.

[graywarrior]

142. *snort*

[Warpy]

146. By the way, thank you

The only thing better than a Pallas's cat thumbnail is a Pallas's cat animated gif.

They're my favorite of all the wild cats.

[graywarrior]

147. You're welcome

and yeah, they make me happy to look at them.

[FrodosPet]

100. It isn't THAT the wind is blowin'!

It's WHAT the wind is blowin'!

If you get hit by a Volvo, it doesn't matter how many sit-ups you did that morning. If you have a "Yield" sign in your spleen, joggin' don't really come into play. "I can run 25 miles without stopping." "You're bleedin'." "Shit!"

-- Ron White

[femrap]

73. Except

for Gov. Christie, of course.

Sorry, I just couldn't help myself. God made me say it.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

89. heh.

He'll bounce, though. Hope he bounces right into a sewage pipe.

forgive me.

[The Wielding Truth]

131. gw, what kind of cat is that?

[Hestia]

144. I've been wondering the same thing for months! It looks chucacabrarish

Coming from the personal staff of 3 kitties.

[DollarBillHines]

155. Pallas

[DollarBillHines]

154. Pallas Cat

[Spazito]

3. I hope everyone in this monster storm's path takes this advice VERY seriously...

Very, very scary to read this but also very necessary, imo.

[MFM008]

4. sounds like the freak we had in 1962

I wasnt living in WA state at the time, we were stationed in Libya. They had a Columbus day storm with hurricane force winds that flattened this place.
We do get wind here. We had one in 2006 that brought gusts of 70mph to the Puget Sound. My son and I slept on the floor next to the heavy couch. That was scary enough.
Be ready, the lights will go out. 25 people killed themselves here by using their barbacues indoors in December 2006.

[tavalon]

126. Ah, yes, the storm of 2006, remember it well

I lived in Duvall at the time and it looked like a scene out of those cheesy 70's disaster movie. No power for 9 days - I pretty much just lived at the hospital, hot showers and fewer widowmakers ready to slice one's car in the middle.

[Spirochete]

137. I was in the Columbus Day storm

Typhoon Frieda. It uprooted huge Douglas fir trees. Our carport was flattened, and the power was out for at least a week. A notice like in the OP would send me scurrying to another location ASAP.

[Harry Monroe]

6. You must have a short memory.

This from the NWS August 28, 2005:

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

[Gman]

11. Wow you posted this as I was typing mine

This is what I'm talking about.

[Are_grits_groceries]

12. Was there a personal plea

from a NWS person? That is the first I have ever seen.

I have a memory and I saw Hugo's warnings and more.

[Harry Monroe]

19. The bulletin was written by Robert Ricks a meteorologist with the New Orleans/Baton Rouge NWS office

And he is a native of the Ninth Ward of New Orleans. He personally experienced Hurricanes Betsy and Camille, so his bulletin is given that much more credibility.

[Are_grits_groceries]

26. Yes! I believe a competent and experienced

person sends out those warnings. That was sent in the standard NWS form. The tweet was a very personal and highlighted way that I have never seen.
I am not going to spend all night arguing about this. Not worth it.

[underseasurveyor]

24. That wasn't a 'Personal' plea.

A very severe and dire warning, yes, but not a personal plea from the head guy himself.

[laundry_queen]

133. I remember on CNN

a day or 2 before landfall, one of the hurricane guys (NOAA?) went on tv and told everyone in low areas of New Orleans who decided to stay to make sure they had an ax or a working chainsaw because chances were that they would have to cut their way out of their attic or drown.

So that was somewhat of a personal plea.

[underseasurveyor]

162. I remember that too.

But the expanded NWS bulletin that was put out yesterday is what I was referring to. That's not happened before.

[TexasBushwhacker]

36. Most of the people who could evacuate NOLA did

The problem was that FEMA and the local and state government did not take appropriate measures to evacuate the poor, elderly and disabled. They should have loaded up every bus in the state, public, private and school, and sent them out of the city. That warning is dated August 28th. Katrina made landfall the morning of the 29th. The mayor of NOLA didn't issue a mandatory evacuation order until August 28th, telling people who couldn't leave the city to go to the Superdome. 26K did.

[forthemiddle]

44. Has it been done now?

I must admit that I have not been following this hurricane that closely (been away from technology most of the weekend), but has the Obama FEMA group evacuated the poor, elderly, and disabled this time?

[Are_grits_groceries]

48. The states and local governments

are responsible for those evacuations. The Obama FEMA group, as you put it, is not the first line of defense. The states ask and they offer any and all help they can.
Why are you jumping on Obama about evacuations?

[forthemiddle]

55. my wording "group" was wrong

I was replying to another post that stated "The problem was that FEMA and the local and state government did not take appropriate measures to evacuate the poor, elderly and disabled."
As I said I have not been following the story as closely as I should, so wondered (in response to the above quote) if the FEMA "group" (should have said, FEMA, and the local and state government) had completed evacuations in this case. Were you got that I was "blaming" anyone at this point is absurd. I was simply looking for an update on the mission so far.

[coalition_unwilling]

92. This is when I finally wrote off the right wing as utterly unworthy of

membership in the human race.

To wit, I had this rightwing lunatic complain to me about all the people who ignored the Mayor's warning and stayed behind in NOLA. "There were all those school buses," she whined.

Never mind that the drivers of those school buses had already left ahead of the storm.

Bush presided over the mostly preventable destruction of an entire American city. He guitared while NOLA drowned. Nero v. 2.0

[garthranzz]

60. But...but...nobody could have expected it....

I am still so bitter about the non-response from Bush, I can't even put up a sarcasm sign. We got a toxic soup - traumatized families - and Bobby Jindal.

Yuck.

Thank you, Harry Monroe. It's good to know you're here. Really.

[Harry Monroe]

75. Lest anyone think I'm trying to get into some kind of little battle here

Regarding Katrina vs. Sandy and warnings, it doesn't really matter. What matters is that people take these warnings seriously enough that they save lives. What was really chilling about the Katrina official warning from the NWS was that that kind of language and phrasing in an official warning was unprecedented. I am a retired professional mariner (Merchant Marine) and have seen hurricane warnings from the NWS throughout my career, but nothing like that one.

[Harry Monroe]

76. And yes, I went through Katrina in New Orleans.

Never do I want to experience something like that ever again. Couldn't imagine how Rmoney would handle something like that. Bush was bad, but that flip-flopping piece of shit even said something to the effect that disaster relief was immoral during the Republican debates in 2011. God, what a repulsive, sorry, poor, pitiful excuse for a human being!!

[garthranzz]

90. Just to clarify, I am agreeing with you on all points

I salute your service, sir.

Since you, too, went through Katrina, you know what I'm talking about.

I have family in the path of Sandy. Everyone be safe. That's priority #1. We can take care of business after the storm passes.

[mountain grammy]

119. I also have family in Sandy's path and am thankful we have a President who's an adult..

[tavalon]

127. sociopaths usually are

[Aerows]

129. I went through Katrina

on the Gulf Coast of Mississippi. I don't ever want to experience something like that ever again, either. If a Katrina sized storm is headed my way again, I'm am leaving - I don't think I could go through it again knowing what I know now.

[OldDem2012]

70. I doubt anyone has seen that kind of warning to the people living along the northern East Coast....

...and I think that's the point the OP was trying to make.

The message warning people living in New Orleans about Katrina was based primarily on the injuries, death, and damage caused by Hurricanes Andrew and Camille.

[Gman]

8. He must not have covered Katrina

And I know he did. Read the last NHC discussion before Katrina. Now THAT was frightening. This is nothing like that one.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

20. "NOAA says destructive potential of #Sandy storm surge is 5.7 on 6.0-scale. Higher than Katrina." nt

[bettyellen]

40. The geography of the Gulf area is much more receptive to surges

Because its so sloped.
Also there's a much bigger area below sea level in NOLA.
So the numbers tell only part of the story.

[magical thyme]

93. Sandy covers a massive amount of ocean

So it is picking up more water than any storm before, from what I have read. That is the concern. It is a weaker storm, but the storm surge will have more water than any storm on record.

[suffragette]

109. Still darlin'

Take care and a big hug to you.

[bettyellen]

110. OMG, been too long!! It's so nice to see you here. ;-)

[suffragette]

114. Way, way too long, my dear.

It's nice to see you, too.

And I want to keep seeing you, so keep yourself safe over there.

Sending love and hugs from the left coast

[dems_rightnow]

9. It's been embellished a bit (Edited)

At the other I have seen, which looked real, the verbiage beginning with "You can call me up" and running thru "Thanks for listening" was not in that report.

On edit- I stand corrected. Here is a direct link that that briefing, and that wording is there:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf

[malaise]

10. I am speechless

I have never seen anything like this

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. I know what to say

I issued a similar warning during the floods, and gave a similar shpiel to emergency responders. I was far more religious back then. I told my people at the end to pray to whoever god they believed in because it was going to be really, and I mean this, REALLY BAD.

They are looking at the worst storm they have seen. They are being honest.

Oh and let me add, this is global climate change.

So if you believe in a god, do pray.

I will add, I wonder just how many teams are right about now on alert or receiving an alert on the WEST COAST? (Swift river rescue teams for example)

[theinquisitivechad]

94. How to hit the message home to the other side that

This is the result of climate change?

[nadinbrzezinski]

95. It will take a few more

Mexico city, nobody will deny it. Mexico has been feeling the brunt of climate change for about a generation.

[underseasurveyor]

14. Wow!

Just wow

[reformist2]

16. If they turn out to be wrong, good luck with the warnings next time...

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. Have you seen the damage ahead of it already?

No, I do not think they are wrong.

What makes this so dangerous is not the category, but how slowly it is moving. (And the size)

[reformist2]

28. I'm looking at maps showing 3-4" of rain for NYC and 5-6' storm surges. Not exactly TEOTWAWKI.

I think the warnings for New Jersey are warranted, though. I'm actually more concerned about Philly/Trenton than NYC.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. The surge for NYC is actually higher than Donna

and that was chest high in some areas.

I am frankly concerned for the eastern sea board, and... you knew that was coming, inland NY State like the Catskills as well as Vermont and other inland areas. I suspect a similar pattern to Irene actually, in some ways.

Irene did spectacular damage inland.

[RoccoR5955]

71. Most of Irene's damage was due to the rain

Sandy's will not be rain, at least here in the Hudson Valley, but winds. Winds will knock down power lines, and cause other damage. I do not see quite similar damage here in Ulster County, as there was with Irene. I don't expect all the small bridges to be out. Believe me, Irene was a great disaster here. I don't expect the same from Irene. I believe that much of the wind will be dampened by the mountains on either side of the valley. We have the Catskills and Shawgunks on the west, the Taconic range on the east, so the only thing to be concerned is with are winds running directly north up the Hudson.

We were hit hard last time, I believe that folks here will take care to use caution this time, and hopefully, we will not be hit so hard. I don't think that eastern inland areas will be hit as much as those west of the Hudson, as that is the track that it looks like the storm is taking.

[nadinbrzezinski]

72. It is one strange storm

regardless...

[johnt_1956_55]

18. this is just crazy

oh dear

[Are_grits_groceries]

22. For those of you pooh-poohing this

as a Katrina sideshow, I hope you are right.

However, this is an unprecedented situation. You have 2 major storm systems merging and moving over one of the most populous areas in the US. You have a sort of nor'easter hitting a tropical system.

While there are no levees, the coastal areas are extremely low. A good deal of water could cover a large area.

As far as worrying about the next time and what to say, let's get through this. It's always a worry that it will be a major 'cry wolf.' That can't be helped if you want to play it safe.

[dixiegrrrrl]

41. Or, to put it another way...

"Can you afford to be wrong about evacuating?"

[JDPriestly]

50. This one is hitting an extremely densely populated area.

Not that New Orleans was not densely populated, but New Jersey? New York City? New York State? Much harder to evacuate people, especially since a lot of people rely on the subways for transportation, and those are being closed.

New Orleans was structurally more vulnerable because of the reclaimed land and the levees, but New Jersey and New York have other problems that could mean even worse damage unless people evacuate when told to do so.

[jackbenimble]

62. I heard one of the weather guys say 60 inches of snow possible in some areas too.

And falling on trees that still have leaves. Those leaves can catch and hold onto snow possibly causing tree limbs or even whole trees to come down onto power lines. I haven't heard them talk about any ice yet so hopefully there wont be any. Not a good feeling laying in bed in the dark hearing your trees making creaking noises from the weight of the ice and knowing any moment a branch could take out part of your house. Scary stuff there. I imagine 60 inches of snow might be too much for some roofs to withstand.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

23. This is a Megastorm though

[DirtyDawg]

25. I can...

...hear it now. The evangelical wingnuts, and frankly any Republican spokesperson, will claim that Sandy is a message from God that he doesn't want 'all them Northeast Librals' votin for that Kenyan, socialist a-hole'.

[nolabear]

59. Yeah this doesn't matter right now. We "liberals" would do well to practice what we preach now.

Just let people know they need to go. They need to take care of one another. They need to take this thing as seriously as life and death. And if you can be of help in a practical way, do so. If the RWNJs want to howl let them. We've got people to save.

[James48]

27. Here is the complete briefing from Gary Szatkowski this afternoon

Read the whole thing, including that slide, here:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf

Good luck.

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. Thanks, THAT IS ONE UGLY... **^*^

[Spazito]

49. Wow!

[bklyncowgirl]

29. Looks like people on the Jersey shore near me are heeding the warning.

We drove past Monmouth park race track today. There's no racing going on but the parking lot was full of cars, trucks, boats etc.

My daughter's boss got the order to evacuate this afternoon. We have a couple of towns here that are sort of New Jersey's answer to Atlantis. I'm talking about Sea Bright, Highlands and anything on Sandy Hook Bay. Any town on the shore is going to flood tonight.

[CoffeeCat]

31. How would this be worse than Katrina?

The 5.6 rating (out of 6) is worse than Katrina.

What would make Sandy worse than Katrina? For these weather guys to state that they've never seen a storm like this in their lifetimes--is quite jarring.

Is it the storm surge combined with the large size of Sandy? Katrina's storm surge was 24-26 feet high. Sandy's has been revised upward to 12 feet for NYC.

Would a larger, slower storm be more dangerous...because it would create prolonged storm surges that would cause extended time periods in which 12-foot storm surges rush in. If that sea water, elevated 12 feet higher than usual keeps rushing in for hours and hours, I cann see where this would be a catastrophe as great as (and possibly worse than) Katrina.

Anyone else want to weigh in on why and how Sandy could exceed Katrina in terms of strength and/or damage?

[Are_grits_groceries]

38. The number of people

in the path of this storm makes the potential for damage and loss of life much higher.
The rating is 'destructive potential'.

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. Becauase you have three low pressure systems coming together

to form one.

That is why.

And also they are looking geographically at a larger area.

Did I mention high tide?

This is not wind that is bad... it is the rest of it.

[jberryhill]

58. In terms of damage?

Larger target. The size of the affected population and, correspondingly, value of improved property, is much much higher. It's also going to cause inland flooding over a broad area.

[yardwork]

68. People die from drowning during storms. It's the flooding that kills.

The speed of winds is not directly correlated to the danger of a storm. It's the potential for flooding and the number of people who will be affected that makes the rating.

[kentauros]

103. Not "prolonged storm surges",

but prolonged rain/snow.

Here's a personal account from 1979 when former Tropical Storm Claudette devolved into a tropical depression and then stalled over the upper Texas Gulf Coast.

We had three days straight of steady rain. Not a hard rain, but it never let up that entire time. Oh but it gets worse! On the fourth day, it turned into a hard downpour, lasting another full day. The little town of Alvin, about thirty miles south of Houston, reported 45 inches of rainfall during Claudette, forty-three of which was from that heavy downpour.

If Sandy stalls, heavy rains leading to major floods will be what causes the most damage (unless it all turns to snow, and then causes structural failure of roofs from all the snow buildup.) However, if the storm surge floods the NY subway system, it's been estimated to upwards of $55 Billion in damages.

[jeff47]

123. Minor Quibble

unless it all turns to snow, and then causes structural failure of roofs from all the snow buildup.

5' of snow buildup is actually not all that uncommon in these areas. Sure, not usually in a single storm, but that doesn't matter when it comes to snow causing structural failure. If that 5 feet comes over a month or a day, it's still the same weight on the roof. I would not expect it to cause structural damage to anything that's not already weakened.

[kentauros]

125. I've noticed that your name isn't showing up much on the hurricane threads,

yet you seem to be following me around and replying just to me. Is there a reason for that?

[jeff47]

151. A very large portion of the threads today are about the hurricane

So I'm going to be reading a lot of posts about hurricanes, whether or not you are in them.

Also, I have a strong personal dislike for disaster hyperbole. Thus exaggerated statements like "5 feet of snow is going to cause buildings to collapse" is likely to provoke a response.

Frankly, I don't pay attention to the name of the person to whom I'm replying, except in one or two cases of woo-pushers. You're not one of them.

[kentauros]

156. I pay attention to who posts

so I can have conversations with people I like. So far, you're not one of them.

[antigone382]

108. The storm is about 1,000 miles in diameter, as I understand it.

An analysis I was looking at earlier today says that there will be 600 miles of Tropical force winds--sustained 75 mph winds...maybe that is inaccurate, but if so, that means about two days of 75 mph winds, on ground that will be soggy from the constant rain, and thus more susceptible to the uprooting of trees, etc.

This storm is huge. Areas under it are going to *stay* under it for an incredibly long time.

[madrchsod]

32. high wind and flooding alert along the lake michigan shoreline...

60 mph winds with 20+ft waves

http://www.chicagoweathercenter.com/nws-alert.front?alert=IL124CCABD2D50.LakeshoreFloodWarning.124CCAC9FE90IL.LOTCFWLOT.3220e244f02bb940d452e4110ea653a6

looks like it will just miss the rest of northern illinois

[dinger130]

35. Make up your mind NOW!

Stay or go.

If you stay, eat a hot hearty meal, make all preparations and hunker down.

Stay warm, stay calm and try to get some sleep.

A little liquor won't hurt either. Ha!

[dixiegrrrrl]

45. There will be ( there always is) miles and miles of cars

filled with people who did not leave in time, and found empty gas stations along the evacuation route,
and found themselves forced to ride out a hurricane in a crowded parking lot that used to be a highway.
The news stations will run film of it, trust me.

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. Of course press will

it makes for good dramatic footage every time!

[randr]

37. My brother lives just north of Ocean City, Md and he left this morning

He has never left before.

[marmar]

46. Good move. Ocean City looks to be in a very bad spot with this storm.

nt

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

57. Good. Smart brother.

NT

[WinkyDink]

61. I'm curious: To where? Nowhere in PA is really "safe," e.g.

[ToxMarz]

74. Most of PA is "safe" as far as evacuations go.

Evacuations are based on risk of flooding only. You don't have to avoid all affects of the storm to be "safe'.

[randr]

81. He is with my other brother in Newark, Del.

[fingrinn]

52. My understanding is

That the storm is going to hit when there is a full moon, which is part of the problem.

[liberalmuse]

56. I read a comment from my local news site...

from a former search and rescuer. He advised people who were going to try and ride this storm in areas where evacuation orders have been given out to get a sharpie - and to write their Social Security number below the breast bone if female, and above if male. He said that is the part of the body least likely to get torn up. That way their family members won't have to wait weeks to find out if they were dead or alive. OMG.

[nadinbrzezinski]

64. This happens every time

and you know what? Worst case, they won't be found... that is the absolutely worst case.

Best case, wolf kid, you know the drill. (This does not look like best case)

[Major Hogwash]

63. Hell, I'm even batting down the hatches and staying inside this weekend!!

That is one wicked storm warning!!!

[deaniac21]

77. Batten down the hatches.

It ain't baseball.

[southernyankeebelle]

65. No matter how prepared you are things could still happen. Seriously people listen

to the people who are in the know. I know I have family and we have been in contact a couple of times today. My sister emailed me earlier and said they were fine so far.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

66. Wow.... just wow... nt

[Historic NY]

69. Its scary thinking 1938....the surge.

http://nytroopershistory.com/1938---Long-Island-Hurricane241.php

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane

[TreasonousBastard]

79. Well, I'm here on Long Island and the storm has been...

well covered, to say the least.

2-4" of rain expected, which we can handle any day even with the 50-75mph winds which are common with the proper noreasters we get a few times a year, with October being prime time for them.

Crappy old power lines will go out, as usual, and we have no idea who will be hit this time. Connecticut usually gets more blackouts because their power lines a are even older and crappier.

The real problem here, and it's big one, is the surge. At high tide today I took the Shelter Island Ferry and the movable ramp was almost at the limit, with the tide about 3-4' higher than normal. And the real surge hasn't started yet!

High tide at possibly 10 feet above normal will be devastating, and it could happen with Long Island Sound acting as an enormous funnel filling up with storm surge and several tide cycles and only the tiny East River and Harlem Rivers draining it. Barrier beaches like Fire Island have been evacuated because although they are on the ocean side, they'll still get with some surge and could be almost completely underwater. Add the wave action from the wind and it could be bad. Real bad.

Not life-threatening every tree will be down bad, but one hell of a mess. I've been down to Westhampton after just a good heavy rain and the roads were washed out. Add a few more feet of water and the wind and it will be a real mess.

So, no, we're not expecting Katrina, or Gloria, but we are expecting a serious interruption to life here and a lot of flooding. And we'll probably lose at last one idiot to the storm, but most people will just lose some money.

[CoffeeCat]

111. Would you say that most people in NYC...

...evacuated, or will they just stay put snd ride it out?

I just can't imagine that many people, in such a densely populated city being able to get out in time.

[Historic NY]

112. low lying areas mostly..

Manhattan - Brooklyn - along the many bays and river I did see they were closing off area off the underground & subways. With a surge the water can backup rather quickly.

[TreasonousBastard]

113. I haven't lived in the city for 30 years, but I'm guessing most will stay put...

because few areas are close to sea level and not that many people live at ground level. Besides, if they have other homes to go to, they're mostly out here or on the Jersey shore. And the Jersey shore is screwed worse than we are.

If the city does get swamped and power goes out, many elevators won't work and they'll sit in the darkness, but what else you gonna do...

I don't have a generator (my own stupidity...) but I can live for a while without electricity if I can find a friend to shower with. County water doesn't come down my street yet, so everyone has a well. An electric well.

[Jennicut]

121. Yes, our power lines suck.

Connecticut really needs to do something about it but it would take a lot of money.

[amandabeech]

80. Here in the DC area, the WP weather folks are rating this an 8 on the scale when the derecho is a 10

We catch a break, but that derecho took out our electricity for a week. It was unbelievably hot. I finally found a friend with AC in the VA suburbs and abandoned ship.

This time, the temp will drop during and after the storm here. If we do not have electricity, we have no heat.

One of my housemates and I went out and got the usually mentioned preparations, and I filled just about everything with water.

The problem is that one roommate thinks that this is balderdash and the other is out of town to return Monday.

Mr. Balderdash is a right-wing Ayn Rand repuke. I don't know how kind I can be to him at this point.

[luv_mykatz]

82. Wishing for safety for all of you in the path of this storm.

I live on the Left Coast. I was here during the Columbus Day Storm, in 1962. It was terrifying, and incredibly destructive. A typical West coast winter cyclone joined up with the remnants of Typhoon Freda. It created massive power outages, which lasted over a week in many areas.It damaged most of the structures in the area (over 70% in a nearby suburb). Many of the power outages and structure damage was caused by falling trees. Many trees were completely uprooted, some from the violence of the wind, and some from the rain saturated soil combined with the leaves still being on them. Window glass was blown out all over the place, including plate glass windows in store fronts.
I believe the wind we experienced was much more violent and destructive than what you will experience (peak gusts of 116 mph in Portland, Oregon; possibly 170+ mph on Mt. Hebo, on the Oregon coast). According to a 50th anniversary presentation put on by the Oregon Meteorological Society, the fierceness of the winds in the Columbus Day Storm resulted from a number of special conditions: the storms formation off northern California, inside the 130 W line; the storms path closely paralleling the coastline as it moved northward; the very rapid movement of the storm, and the channeling effect of the mountain ranges that run parallel to the Willamette Valley.
I deeply hope that the winds in this storm will not be as devastating as what we experienced in 1962.
Nonetheless: the National Weather Service sounds very serious in their warnings to all of you. The tropical energy of a hurricane, mixed with the fierceness of mid-latitude winter storms is NOT to be sneezed at! And, some areas back there could experience the additional complication of snow added to the mess, as well.
I wish all of you the very best of protection and safety throughout this potentially historic event.
And for the skeptics: after all, the best thing that could happen is that it will be not as bad as they are forecasting. So, take precautions now, and be glad to be alive to kvetch, afterward. Or, would tongue-in-cheek be more apt?

[HeeBGBz]

87. Becoming a hybrid vortex over the east coast

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd&version=10&fmt=reg

I don't think anyone knows what is fixing to happen.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

88. Jim Cantore said exactly the same thing last year about Irene

Seriously, he did. Claimed on the Friday night before the storm "New York City will never be the same again after this weekend".

You can yell at me all you want, but guys like him cry wolf too fucking much. Maybe he's finally right this time.

[nadinbrzezinski]

96. New York he missed it, for the city

Care to tell me how well Vermont and the Catskills fared?

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

101. There are storms that go unnamed and never have a bit of hype that do great damage as well

Irene was a bad hurricane. Of course it created damage. It was not the end of the world, and let's be honest, it wasn't Vermont or the Catskills the media gave two shits about before it happened.

The problem with the media is they make this a goddamn sport to drive ratings while putting on a false face of grave concern for their viewers. There was a day and age where the media kept a level tone, and treated all weather events with the same potential danger instead of dropping a ton of hyperbole for every event, making each successive time seem like a lot of bullshit.

[nadinbrzezinski]

102. Tell you what

Turn your tv off, right about now.

And the people making all ths noise, read the OP, are none other than the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

104. The OP references Jim Cantore

That's why I brought him up. So yeah, I read it. Sheesh.

[nadinbrzezinski]

105. Re-read it.

Serious. The NWS is telling media this will be bad, unlike any other storm before, raw messages and products are THAT BLUNT.

I guess next red flag warning we should not run it because it s exaggerated?

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

106. No, enough

We're done. Bye.

[nadinbrzezinski]

107. Good

[nadinbrzezinski]

135. Hey it looks like the media

And the NWS were exaggerating. Damage and flooding are already here and the storm has yet to make landfall. But you are right, they were exaggerating.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

136. Can't let it go, eh?

For someone who should be apparently be counting their minutes of life remaining, you seem sure concerned about my reaction. Are you even ON the east coast, like me?

Never said they were exaggerating, just that media loses credibility every time they hype shit using sports analogies and threats of the end of the world and then says "No, we are SERIOUS now!" when something finally happens. Maybe the NWS is embarrassed for them, even if you're not.

Glad you're enjoying your Jim Cantore porn, and that he's finally right NYC is doomed. Only a year and two months late.

[nadinbrzezinski]

138. Turn your tv off

And no, I actually report on shit the NWS puts out. More often than not our red flag warnings lead to no fires, thankfully. Then we have a few, like Cedar or witch Creek that are bad, as in people die. So, this is why I have little patience when people say, this is porn. Media, including Cantore, are READING THE NWS PRODUCT... So take it with the NWS.

What I can tell you is stay safe. I am sure my local swift water team was put on alert as of late afternoon yesterday. Yup, on the other coast.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

139. LOL....I've never had it on

I gave up on TWC completely after Hurricane Earl and the shit show they pulled then. Newport, RI shouldn't exist anymore you know, according to them after what Earl was gonna do to them. Last I checked it's still standing 15 miles south of me.

Unfortunately, you can't flip the channel or even the radio dial without someone pimping death and destruction instead of giving some actual information. Someone tweeted me Cantore is using the term "gametime tonight is about eight o'clock!". Guy is a total douchbag, if the OP wanted to maintain credibility and seriousness on this the last thing they should have done was mention that jackoff's name.

[nadinbrzezinski]

140. So let me get this straight

You are discounting the screen cap from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, not THE WEATHER CHANNEL due to that?

:shakes head:

Are you related to my back country denizens that know better than county EOC as well? You must be.

Goodbye.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

141. Was Jim Cantore referenced in the OP?

MY ONLY POINT WAS WHY THE NEED TO REFERENCE HIM???? LET THE NWS CAP STAND FOR ITSELF!!! WE KNOW JIM CANTORE THINKS EVERYTHING IS THE END OF THE WORLD ALREADY!!!

Sheesh, you are dense!! And jurors if you get an alert, note they insulted me first with their "back country" bullshit!

Goodbye? Do you promise this time?

[NutmegYankee]

97. No Offense, but nobody in Connecticut can forget Irene.

That was a shock to the whole state.

[nadinbrzezinski]

99. I knew I forgot some.

Sorry

I remembered peope here worried sick over a few folks in Vermont.

It was bad.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

91. Bigger and better formed storms.

Global warming and more energy in the atmosphere means more unpredictable weather. I think Ike (which I went thru in Houston) was 600 miles across. That's almost as big as Texas. Texas is 800 miles North to South, and East to West.

The first hurricane I remember hearing about being larger due to global warming was Hugo which hit Florida in 1989. They said it was the biggest and most perfectly formed hurricane the NWS had seen up to that time.

[Javaman]

116. Spoke to my sister in Queens last night.

She's told me that just about all of lower Manhattan is closed and will be closed for a while. She was supposed to begin Jury duty today in Manhattan. All the courts have been closed. Her daughter in law is in town with her husband and were supposed to leave today, their flight was canceled and postponed until Wednesday. I think she said all subways in lower Manhattan were closed until further notice.

The winds in Queens were picking up. In the court yard in the middle of here apt building, the wind was creating a "vortex" and the sound was unbelievable to her. She's never experienced anything like that before and she's lived there for years. The apt building across the street from her is getting a renovation and there is all sorts of scaffolding, etc. She's keeping a close eye on that stuff. Lots of stuff on the roof swinging in the wind.

I grew up on LI, I have experienced a lot of storms, some bad, but this one, is nothing like I have ever witnessed before.

My brother in Jersey is already experiencing flooding in his area.

The storm surge (full moon) is what really concerns me.

[Voice for Peace]

117. Have you seen these satellite pics? Update #13 shows comparison between Irene & Sandy YOW

http://gizmodo.com/5955575/earth-photo-shows-sandys-massive-size

scroll through all the updates, gives a good sense of the
size of this storm

[Voice for Peace]

130. Great site, they keep updating.. now with pics of NY flooding, river overflowed banks

[catrose]

118. To add: Please, please, please take your pets

Do not leave your pets behind. If you're going to a shelter, call and ask if they have provisions for pets. If not, call the Humane Society to ask their advice. They're the ones who will have to try to rescue your pets if you leave them behind, and they'd rather not--they'd certainly rather not tell you that your pets were dead or that they couldn't find them. AHS and Red Cross have been working together for some years now to shelter both humans and pets.

If you're not going to a shelter, know that Red Roof Inns accepts pets at no additional charge (or did the last time I needed them). Their rules say 2 pets, but they didn't say anything about my 4 cats.

[Jennicut]

120. All I have to say is look at these projections

5 to 10 feet surge could happen on the CT coast.

NYC and CT may get the worst storm surges. Our Governor in CT warned of threat of drowning if you stayed on the immediate coast. I would listen to the NWS.

[PatSeg]

122. I posted this on Facebook

I've never seen anything quite like it.

[The Wielding Truth]

132. PatSeg, did you have a picture?

[PatSeg]

152. Just the graphic that was posted here

Is that what you were referring to?

[WCLinolVir]

128. I live in Richmond,

we should be fine. I have a fenced yard with a covered porch if someone needs to shelter dogs. They will have to be outdoor dogs though, as I have cats.

[marble falls]

143. He needed to add the one more step that Galveston PC added fo Ike - if you choose to stay, .....

please your name and SS# number on your arm with a magic marker. My daughter who does archeological surveys on the Mississippi Delta still runs into human remains from Katrina.

[Uncle Joe]

148. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, grits.

[arikara]

157. Stay safe everyone

we went through 2 hurricanes 5 years ago here on the west coast and our power was out for 3 weeks. But it sounds like nothing compared to what you could be facing, so stay safe.