Timothy Snyder: The Kremlin's formula for failure

[Nevilledog]

https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-kremlins-formula-for-failure?s=r

1. Putin is responsible for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and as a tyrant must redistribute blame for its failures. For the tyranny to continue functioning, other individuals and institutions must accept the blame, while avoiding any talk of failure. This is difficult.

2. After a month of the Russian military campaign, some possible vectors of discord in the Russian government suggest themselves. I summarize here from open sources certain unusual features of this war. These are odd facts that would seem to suggest prior, or provoke future, dissension among Russian leaders. I draw no conclusions, and will at most suggest where to look.

3. Putin is the supreme leader in the Russian Federation. The invasion of Ukraine was predicated on his idea that there was no Ukrainian state or nation. His views are widely repeated, though perhaps not as widely shared. They were immediately proven wrong.

4. Putin's idea of regime change in Ukraine in two days failed in practice. His victory declaration of February 26th, accidentally published, revealed a vast gap between aim and achievement.

*snip*