How Russia May Reprise Its Syrian Playbook in Ukraine

[Nevilledog]

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https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/03/how-russia-may-reprise-its-syrian-playbook-ukraine#.YkRdfqcFi6E.twitter



The tragic patterns set in Russia’s brutal war in Syria are unfolding anew in Ukraine. Already, chilling parallels are evident between Moscow’s prosecution of the Syrian conflict and its current conduct in its Eastern European neighbor. Going forward, Russia’s Syrian playbook may provide additional insights into its approach to diplomacy as well as how Russia now envisions its eventual Ukrainian endgame.

Ukraine Isn’t Syria

Significant differences distinguish Russia’s current engagement in Ukraine from its 2015 intervention in the Syrian civil war. Moscow joined the Syrian conflict at the behest of the Assad regime, which was threatened with collapse at the hands of a strengthening Islamist insurgency. Russia’s primary objective was to prevent the fall of yet another Arab regime in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings. It was largely an opportunistic move requiring a relatively small investment of blood and treasure for a mission far from Russia’s near abroad. Its engagement in Syrian airspace was largely uncontested and it relied on others—primarily Iranian-backed militias—to fight the ground war. From Russia’s perspective, the battle in Syria offered potentially high returns for a relatively low cost.

By contrast, Russia initiated its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine in pursuit of regime change. Moscow has depicted the stakes in Ukraine as nothing less than existential, imbuing it with the utmost strategic importance. Yet four weeks into the assault, Russia has confronted staunch opposition from Ukrainian forces fighting what some call a “war of rare clarity” that has captured the hearts of much of the world, galvanized NATO and deepened European resolve against Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic miscalculation has thrust Russia into a high-cost gambit with little prospect of achieving his ambitious goals.

Russia’s “Post-West Order” Framing

The underlying drivers, stakes, and objectives in Syria and Ukraine are strikingly different. Yet, elements of Russia’s framing, tactics, strategy, and endgame in Syria are reflected in Ukraine. Russian analysts and academics have described Syria as Russia’s “first post-Soviet success.” In this view, Russia’s relatively successful engagement in Syria served as a test case for a new, “post-West” order. For Moscow, this multipolar, post-West world is marked by the erosion of the U.S.-led international order and weakened U.S.-led multilateral institutions, including NATO.

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[Wounded Bear]

1. May? He's already well on his way to it...nt

[PortTack]

2. Putin made a new world order for sure..one where russia is now seen as N Korea, unified NATO

And the European Union, showed the world he has a third rate military force, galvanized all of Europe to increase their defenses against an aggressor country, lost hundreds of thousands of ppl that fled not wanting to live under a totalitarian regime, ruined the russia economy, and it’s only going to get worse