What if Putin Didn't Miscalculate?

[applegrove]

What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

March 30, 2022 at 2:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 30 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/03/30/what-if-putin-didnt-miscalculate/

"SNIP.......

Bret Stephens: “Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).”

“Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.”

Said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg: “Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist.”

“If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.”

.......SNIP"

[applegrove]

1. Interesting. I bet he also plans to make money on the Marshall

Plan to rebuild Ukraine.

[murielm99]

2. I think they are giving him too much credit for playing

three-dimensional chess. He is not that bright. He is cagey and clever, but not a genius, as TFG claims.

I don't think he would risk the huge losses that the Russian military has sustained, or the worldwide condemnation. He is also risking his own life and "career."

[Lovie777]

3. He wants all of Ukraine and to continue to take other countries as well .....

that is his goal and has been for a long time.

[applegrove]

4. Apparently the Russians in Eastern Ukraine took all the richest impoverished

the people over the last years they have been in there occupying.

[lees1975]

5. He's lost far more in sanctions than he could recoup from Ukrainian mineral wealth

if the Ukrainians would have folded as he expected. Right now, they still hold most of the territory. Putin doesn't occupy large swaths of Eastern Ukraine, his military is sticking to the roads and they have a handful of towns, and one city. After a month, that's all the Russian army has been able to secure. Essentially, he's losing a conventional war to a former provincial state.

If NATO attacked, the armies would be in Moscow inside of a week.

[Wingus Dingus]

6. Uh, no. He took a risky gamble and it didn't pay off.

Not in terms of cost to his country via sanctions, reduced trade and investments, and reduced dependence on Russian gas and oil--and not in terms of cost to his military. I'm not seeing it. He could have pulled off taking the disputed areas had he limited his invasion goals, but now they hate his fucking guts there. But nice try anyway, Bret.

[applegrove]

7. Okay. I will park it as unproven in my brain.

[TheRealNorth]

8. The Donbas may be Plan B

Since Plan A (taking all of Ukraine/regime change) didn't work.

Of course, that is assuming the Russians even had a back-up plan if Plan A failed. This may just be a "face-saving" maneuver.

[LudwigPastorius]

9. Yep.

It's not just natural gas, but wheat.

To quote (well, myself) from a month ago: "I believe that a 'win' for Putin would be as much land east of the Dnieper river as he could steal. Forcing Ukraine to sue for peace by giving up some of its territory is his end game..."

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2879781

[Metaphorical]

10. Again, not consistent

Putin has taken several million acres of productive farmland out of production for the next year, easily, something that is already sending shockwaves throughout Russia, the Middle East, and is likely soon to impact Europe. Russia has also not fully tapped its own oil and natgas reserves. Regaining both the oil-rich areas and arable soil may have been one of his objectives initially, but if so, he badly miscalculated.

[Spider Jerusalem]

11. Someone is still heavily invested in the "Putin is a 4d chess player" narrative, I see (n/t)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. +1

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Yes, Brett Stephens, that renowned military historian.