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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Risks of a Russian Ceasefire Offer
Link to tweet
Tweet text: Nataliya Bugayova
@nataliabugayova
Putins intentions toward Ukraine have not changed and likely never will. The Kremlin will use any ceasefire to adapt, not scale down, its ambitions to erode and ultimately destroy Ukraines sovereignty. My latest @TheStudyofWar.
understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War
4:07 PM · Mar 31, 2022
@nataliabugayova
Putins intentions toward Ukraine have not changed and likely never will. The Kremlin will use any ceasefire to adapt, not scale down, its ambitions to erode and ultimately destroy Ukraines sovereignty. My latest @TheStudyofWar.
understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War
4:07 PM · Mar 31, 2022
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/risks-russian-ceasefire-offer
Ukraine may soon face a new threat in this warRussias ceasefire offer. It seems odd to say that a ceasefire is a threat. Once war begins, the default position in the West is to seize the earliest opportunity to stop the fighting. But while some ceasefires lead to peace, others lead to more waras the Russians have repeatedly shown. The frontlines frozen in a ceasefire set the conditions for the negotiations and reconstruction that follow. They also set conditions for future conflict. Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to accept a Russian ceasefire offer that sets conditions for renewed conflict on Russias terms or gives Russia leverage on Ukraine with which to force concessions and surrenders.
Russia is on the ropes in Ukraine today. It has not achieved any of Putins central objectives. The Russian army is suffering damage that will take years to repair if repair is even possible. Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations, steadily pushing the Russians back from their positions around Kyiv and Kharkiv. A ceasefire can stop the fighting, for a time, but it will also give Moscow a chance to reset and prepare to renew the fighting on more advantageous terms. Vladimir Putin has used this approach successfully in Syria and Ukraine since 2014. He will likely try to use it again soon, and we must recognize it for what it isa trap.
Properly supported, the Ukrainians may well be able to reclaim much of their territory from the exhausted and demoralized Russian forces. The West must back Kyiv in that endeavor, providing military aid that Ukraine needs and disregarding Russian ceasefire offers meant to freeze the battlefield in what is likely close to the best configuration Putin can hope for and in a way that supports maximalist Russian peace demands that have only one goalstripping Ukraine of its sovereignty.
Any consideration of a Russian ceasefire offer must take account of six primary risks.
Putins intentions toward Ukraine have not changed and likely never will. Putins goals in Ukraine always exceeded countering NATO or forcing Ukraine into neutrality. Putin has made it clear in word and action over the past 20 years that he will accept nothing less than Russian control over Ukraine. He explicitly said that Ukraine never had its own statehood in advance of the Feb 24 invasion.[1] There is no room for an independent Ukraine in Putins Russian World.
*snip*
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The Risks of a Russian Ceasefire Offer (Original Post)
Nevilledog
Mar 2022
OP
Risk #1: P* NEVER negotiates in good faith. Never. Prefers lies to honesty. n/t
TygrBright
Mar 2022
#1
TygrBright
(20,733 posts)1. Risk #1: P* NEVER negotiates in good faith. Never. Prefers lies to honesty. n/t
gab13by13
(20,849 posts)2. This war will go on for a long time,
Putin will never concede, he is afraid he will be the laughing stock of the world if he doesn't win.