How many COVID deaths are 'acceptable'? Decision necessary to move to post-pandemic world

[MyMission]

I just read this article, which helped me understand why so many restrictions are being lifted, even as Covid is still circulating. It's about the numbers. I'm a numbers person and can appreciate the analysis; and understand that they believe they can predict the trends of covid, ups and downs, cycling and circulating like the flu. People are still getting sick and dying.

I'm still wearing a mask and plan to continue. I saw the headline on msn, link took me to la times. Very interesting article. The last paragraph I posted is very telling. 64% (2/3) want to see restrictions lifted.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2022-04-01/covid-acceptable-deaths

In the post-pandemic world the United States is struggling to bring forth, how many people are we willing to let die of COVID-19 each year?

Yep, let’s go there.

Should your vaccinated grandmother’s death from COVID-19 be considered an acceptable loss? Should seasonal spikes in casualties among the unvaccinated elicit more than a shrug? Should life go on without disruption if a new coronavirus variant starts killing as many youngsters as childhood cancers?

You won’t see politicians calling press conferences to acknowledge that some deaths are inevitable and some lives aren't worth what it would cost to save them.

But acceptable numbers of deaths are the common currency of public health professionals. And they are a central factor in every debate over when — and after what expenditure of money and effort — the time has come to move on.

Declaring an end to the pandemic is about deciding how much illness, death and disruption is “accepted and acceptable as a part of normal life,” said Erica Charters, a historian with Oxford University's "How Epidemics End" project.

Setting an upper bound on the number of COVID-19 deaths the country will tolerate each year is the basis for decisions about when it will be OK to drop pandemic safety rules, and when it might be necessary to reinstate them.

A growing number of Americans have concluded the time to move on from the pandemic is now. In mid-March, 64% of adults who took an Axios-Ipsos poll said they're in favor of lifting all federal, state and local COVID-19 restrictions — up from 44% in early February. (more at link)

[SoCalDavidS]

1. Based Upon The Last 2 Years

There is No # too high.

But I’ll go with 2,500/day.

[MyMission]

19. I agree

No number is too high. And we've all seen the graphics showing the trends, peaks and valleys, sharp rises, steep declines. And another variant around the corner...

[Walleye]

2. If people refuse to get a vaccination, it seems to me they are accepting their own deaths

It’s not all in the numbers. It’s also a matter of who it is that’s dying, if it’s largely the unvaccinated that’s totally preventable. We have had to accept the fact that some people would rather die than take a shot.

[genxlib]

8. +1000

I think it has to be broken down to "self-inflicted" versus "innocent victims".

Some innocent people will die because they can't take the shot or it doesn't work for them or were just unlucky enough to be the rare case. This is the only group that should weigh into the discussion because all the others have decided for themselves.

[Walleye]

17. Thanks. That's just what I was trying to say.

[viva la]

3. Well, we sensible people can choose to wear a mask

When we can. We don't need a mandate to do something minor that can still make a bit of difference

[MyMission]

20. Absolutely

We who wear masks are in the minority. No biggie, I was already a minority.

I work in retail and have noticed that more people wear masks when cases are rising, but the minute numbers decline, so does mask wearing. Now I know it's about 35% who are truly sensible.

[viva la]

23. Lately I'm the only person in the store wearing a mask.

Oh, well. I am too old to succumb to peer pressure!

[Happy Hoosier]

4. We'll see what folks will tolerate.

It's all about risk management. We have about 35,000 people die each year in car accidents. Is that an "acceptable" number of deaths? It is, apparently. People do not stop driving, despite the risk of being one of those 35,000 people.

Likewise, people continue to do many other things that are risky, because they perceive the benefit to outweigh the risks. Simply put, there is no such thing as a 100% risk-free life.

I think at this point it's less about what the acceptable level of sustained loss is, and more about the risk of the risk of more runaway variants resulting in massive infection and death spikes.

[viva la]

6. We're under 1000 a day this week...

About the same as car accidents deaths.

Of course, there are dozens of laws and regulations to improve safety in driving which have greatly decreased the deaths per 100k miles.

Kinda like wearing a mask and getting a shot.

[Happy Hoosier]

10. Right... and I think Vaccine requirements are reasonable.

We have all kinds of vaccines required for places like schools and the military.

For the moment, I feel fairly safe going maskless most of the time. But I am getting the second booster for sure.

[Blues Heron]

12. That's ten times car accidents- 1000 x 365 is 365,000 per year

Cars accidents kill 35,000 (according to the post above)

[viva la]

13. Eek! I'm terrible at math.

Well, that is too many, a million every three years?

Of course , if they all got vaxxed, it would be far less. We can't seem to make that happen.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. I will accept 100% of the deaths of the unvaccinated

Right now, unvaccinated people are 97 times more likely to die from Covid than fully vaxxed and boosted people. If 50,000 unvaccinated people a day were dying I would care zero except for the burden that would put on the hospitals and their staffs.

But right now, the numbers indicate if 1,000 people die of Covid, about 10-12 are boosted, I care about those 10-12 people a lot. Another 30 or 40 are partially vaccinated, I care about them too. But 960 or so are unvaccinated idiots, they can die, our country is better without them.

[Pobeka]

7. To be fair, we already do that with the "common" flu.

Otherwise we'd have mask mandates year round.

That food workers aren't required to wear masks while preparing food is kind of disgusting -- when you see the amount of spit coming out of someone's mouth when they are talking with good sunlight illuminating from a back angle.

That's one thing I've learned. I'll avoid talking while preparing food for family and friends.

Sorry for the strange tangent...

[MyMission]

25. Not a strange tangent

There are many good reasons to wear a mask. If they ran campaigns to raise awareness and encourage it, we'd be better off. Food handlers should definitely wear masks at work. And guys with beards should wear a chin mask.

[Ace Rothstein]

9. I don't know what people who write articles like this expect at this point.

Nobody wants unnecessary deaths but there have been restrictions all over the world for the last 2+ years yet here we are with millions dead. People who write articles like that offer little in the way of solutions.

[genxlib]

11. All above comments are true and I second them

But would also add that it takes the consent of the governed to be successful.

Trying to keep mandates in a society that doesn't want them will not work anyway. It will just continue frustration and ill will without accomplishing what it is meant to accomplish

[WhiskeyGrinder]

14. People tolerate quite a few, especially when certain people are disproportionately the ones dying.

[KarenS]

15. this is both an interesting and valid discussion to have,,,,

for all of us. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, we all take 'some' risks, we all have some limits,,,,

[Blues Heron]

16. We also have to consider long Covid effects

Once again, Covid ain’t the flu, despite the perennial talking point of the mask whiners.

[MyMission]

22. COVID-19 infection increases your risk for diabetes, a new study says

Death is an absolute measurement, long covid is something they are still learning about.
We and they do need to factor in those with long covid, and the negative impact on their lives.

I just read on NPR about the link between long covid and diabetes.

People who suffered from even mild cases of COVID-19 face an increased risk of being diagnosed with diabetes within a year of recovering from the illness, a new study reports.

Researchers found that people who had COVID-19 were about 40% more likely to develop diabetes within a year after recovering, compared to participants in a control group. The likelihood of developing diabetes grew if the patient suffered from a serious infection that led to hospitalization or a stay in intensive care....

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/31/1090080198/covid-19-diabetes-increased-risk

[Hugin]

18. So, what are the plans for the next pandemic?

Going back to partying like it's 2019 is a non-starter. It lead to this.

Also, 'post-pandemic' is a ridiculous statement. There will be more pandemics. Probably more often now that the tipping point has apparently been reached.

MAYBE, we can say post-COVID-19 and not even post-Omicron, yet.

[Blues Heron]

21. remember - we wear masks for others - not just ourselves

and that includes the unvaxxed - we wear masks to protect them as well - yes I know that seems like heresy - but its the only ethical stance.

[Mad_Machine76]

24. In an ideal word:

None. But if we want to talk numbers, anything matching or beneath the number of annual flu deaths would be *acceptable* I don't think we're quite there yet, though.

[MyMission]

26. I agree

We're not there yet, and do need to consider long covid numbers as well as deaths.

We all want it to be over, but I for one can't fool myself into believing life can get back to normal.
I've been saying we need to establish a new normal, but mine includes wearing masks and taking precautions, not assuming or allowing a certain amount of death and debilitaty.