How Open-Source Data Got the Russia-Ukraine War Right

[Nevilledog]

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https://newlinesmag.com/argument/how-open-source-data-got-the-russia-ukraine-war-right/

Since Russia began its unprovoked war on Ukraine on Feb. 24, images of Ukrainian farmers pulling destroyed or abandoned Russian military hardware with their tractors have captivated followers on social media. The resilience and tenacity of Ukrainians in their David and Goliath fight against Russia has endeared governments and civilians alike in an unprecedented and coordinated display of support for Ukraine.

These and similar images are one type of open-source intelligence, or OSINT, that are increasingly used by intelligence analysts, investigators and journalists to track and trace what is happening on the ground in real time. OSINT includes any publicly available source, much of which can be found online on social media platforms and in videos, webinars and speeches as well as tools such as satellite imagery that can be used in combination to triangulate data and verify facts.

Since the war began in Syria, the field of OSINT has evolved from being a niche interest of online amateur sleuths on the fringes to a mainstream method of investigation and research. Thanks to OSINT, the scale of Russia’s troop build-up on Ukraine’s borders and details about the type of military hardware it was using was known months before the invasion. Since then, data has been collected for a range of categories including materiel losses, targets, casualties and potential war crimes as well as the quality and quantity of equipment and supplies on both sides.

The abundance of images online illustrating the ability of a lesser-equipped but dogged Ukrainian army hanging on despite its superior adversary has surprised many. This has fueled debate among experts, such as military analysts, and data journalists about the veracity of OSINT. Michael Kofman, research program director in the Russia studies program at the Virginia-based CNA think tank, takes a longer view and suggests it’s too early to suggest Russia cannot win its war; after all, Russia has a bigger military and more weaponry. The Ukrainian government, particularly President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has proved adept at harnessing social media and uniting the population against a common enemy. The abundance of images attesting to Ukrainians’ability to thwart Russian advances may distort the current state of war in Ukraine and inadvertently portray the Ukrainian situation as being better than it is. Yet those who rely on OSINT take a cautious view about drawing conclusions. For data journalists, grand predictions are not the point. Rather, it is to stick to what the data shows.

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