Recently there's been talk of a WWll-style, massive tank battle...

[brush]

coming up in Eastern Ukraine as the Russians are shifting their rebuffed forces from around Kyiv to the Dunbas region.

But there's also the fact that the muddy season from melted snow is just about here and tanks do not operate well in that. The nazis learned that very well in Russian during WWll, so it looks like it'll be an even longer slog of a war intil after the mud subsides in eastern Ukraine.

No one of the pundits oo military analysts are mentioning that TV.

[packman]

1. The WWII tank battles were Tank-on-tank for the most part

If there is a battle resembling those historical encounters, it will probably be Russian tanks vs. drones and infantry men with anti-tank rockets. The Ukrainians will win that one.

[brush]

3. Propably. They'd be sitting ducks mired in mud...

easy to pick off. And the Ukrainians have had much success already at that.

[Aristus]

10. And if it does become tank-on-tank, the Ukrainian tankers may have an edge.

Beyond discipline, morale, and fighting for their homeland. A lot of Ukraine's tanks are Russian-built T-64's, one of the first production tanks with an automatic loader. The 64's auto loader is markedly different from the auto-loader on later-generation Russian tanks like the T-72, the T-8-, and the T-90. It has a higher rate of fire than the newer tanks, so the Ukrainians have the capability to take out more Russian tanks more quickly than their opponents.

[Amishman]

34. This is true, but the reason Russia did not continue the T-64 style autoloader is reliability

Though in the many years since its introduction, they probably worked out the kinks

And I just wasted a bunch of time trying to learn why an older russian tank had a better autoloader than newer ones

[uponit7771]

15. +1, that's if they don't get talked into going mostly conventional

[Duncanpup]

2. Spring and fall

I imagine are muddy mess

[unc70]

4. High temps near 70 in Kharkiv

Warm right now; forecast mostly for around 60. Kyiv is cooler with highs in the 50s. And don't forget the rain!

I've been trying to follow this. Spring (and mud) seems early this year. From my very limited knowledge of Ukraine, I would not think this a good scenario for tanks.

[mitch96]

5. "there's also the fact that the muddy season " The Ukrainians call it "General Mud"..the

other weapon. It defeated Napoleon, Hitler and now putins forces. Tanks work best in the open on solid ground with room to maneuver. Not so good in towns or tight spaces especially with out support of soldiers. Think Saint Javelin hiding in the rubble waiting for a tank.. Open spaces are too exposed for the shooter. ...
Either way this is gonna be a blood slug fest. Air superiority is the key..YMMV
Here is an animation of the situation
m

[brush]

7. Thanks for video. It explains the tank warfare in mud situation well.

It's also scary...what with the possibility of it being only a matter of time before Putin deploys thermobaric weapons.

[mitch96]

11. "deploys thermobaric weapons." what concerns me is the use of NBC weapons..

Nuclear,Biological and Chemical..
That would truly suck and plunge the world into a pile of shit. And for what..
To "regain the glory of a bygone era"? in the mind of a deranged despot... uff
m

[brush]

16. I know, right? Putin has shown reckless disregard...

for civilian lives. I don't think he'll hesitate using chemical and biological weapons, even though Biden has stated NATO will respond if he uses chemical weapons.

He might hesitate with the nukes but we can't count on that either.

[mitch96]

20. "but we can't count on that either." a rat in a corner does not have many options...

Kennedy gave Kruschev a road out and saving face... I don't see a road out for putin to save face with his people... I hope saner minds prevail in Russia and get rid of this maniac...
m

[brush]

21. Fingers crossed that someone there grows some cajones.

[Jerry2144]

6. Please pray

to Saint Javelin, Sister Switchblade, Brother Bayraktr, and Father NLAW to be effective in saving Ukraine and driving the Russian invaders back home

[mitch96]

14. If you are the praying kind of person, yes do it!!

[Ray Bruns]

8. Actually, Hitler waited too late to invade (June instead of May).

While the Germans made huge advances in the Summer, the fall rains turned the roads and fields to mud which slowed them down. Then the freeze came, which the Germans weren't prepared for and stopped them cold.

[brush]

12. Yes. Hitler knew more than his generals. That sounds...

Last edited Fri Apr 8, 2022, 10:43 AM - Edit history (1)

familiar, right? Hitler, earlier in the war, also made the huge mistake of halting his army at Dunkirk which was in position to capture the entire Bristish army. As a result, the Brits were evacuated and survived.

Hitler could've won the war against Britain right there and THEN moved on to Russia. Instead he ended up fighting on a western front and an eastern one.

And the rest is history.

[Kaleva]

19. Hitlers biggest mistake was inading Poland

It was all downhill from there as the end was pretty much a foregone conclusion.

[Chainfire]

23. Hitler's biggest mistake was that of underestimating his enemies.

Their will and their abilities. Putin has made the same mistake.

The German corporal didn't learn Sun Tzu's lesson:

Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril. When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself, you are certain in every battle to be in peril.

[Kaleva]

35. Hitler had the opportunity to make Germany sn economic super power

Hr had acquired Austria and the Sudetenland without a shot bring fired and then the rest of Checoslovakia. It was the latter move that finally stiffened the resolve of France and Great Britain .

Had Hitler, instead going after Poland, concentrated on the German economy and using diplomacy, gathered the Balkan states and possibly even the Nordic and Baltic states into an economic and military alliance with Germany, he could have achieved via peaceful means what he attempted to do by brute force

[Ex Lurker]

27. That wasn't completely on Hitler

Mussolini invaded Greece, promptly got in trouble and Hitler had to send troops to bail him out, delaying the invasion of Russia.

[WarGamer]

52. Because of Greece...

[2naSalit]

9. I was going to mention that yesterday...

But spaced it out in the fog all that is going on. I have been thinking about that for the past few days. It's mud season and that will be a mess for heavy equipment.

Surely the Ukrainians will remind those who forget. It's becoming quite evident in the videos we're seeing, I hope the Ukrainians can use it to their advantage.

[uponit7771]

13. K&R, There are too many US top leadership in love with their big expensive WWII era toys vs ...

... faster, lighter armored individual with force multiplying distance weapons.

[brush]

17. I like that idea...like the javelins which can take out tanks...

while being operated by one or two men.

[uponit7771]

18. +1,... or women. That's how light the Javelin is and it can also shoot down helicopters from nearly

... a mile away.

Can you imagine a 2 person medium range AA that has 3 times the distance as the Stinger?

The big expensive stuffs days are numbered IMHO

[brush]

22. Thanks for the correx...I should've said "operated by...

two people."

[uponit7771]

24. +1, I think that's the other change in the battlefield; countries can increase amount of ready ...

... troops with these weapons now.

North Vietnamese women were very important part of their support and logistics.

[Chainfire]

25. Tank on take battles are an obsolete concept.

Failing generals traditionally prepare for the last war, instead of the future war. Even at Kursk, the largest tank battle ever fought, it was about integrated arms. Germans went into the battle with superior tanks, but were defeated largely by artillery, air and better tactics. Putin is trying to refight WWII in a day where tanks are just BFTs. The US Marine Corps has abandoned tanks and with sound reason.

Putin has lost this war, regardless whether he ends up occupying key parts of Ukraine. He has degraded his country physically and morally, and has isolated Russia to the point where their only remaining friend is their natural enemy, China. If Putin stages a great armored battle, and wins it, he still loses. He is living a nightmare, his worst fears have overtaken him, he has proven that he is a fool and that Russia is not a great power. There is no way he exits this war "victorious."

Remind me to never pick a fight with Ukrainians!

[Midnight Writer]

26. Exactly. A fleet of cheap drones can take out tanks with no risk of casualties.

Russia is fighting using obsolete tactics.

They may be able to use their weapons to destroy Ukraine, but they can never take Ukraine.

[brush]

28. Not exactly the drones. Drones locate them then send info...

to the units that can take them out.

[Midnight Writer]

29. Switchblade drones weigh about three pounds and are designed to stop armored vehicles like tanks.

[brush]

31. You said a fleet of cheap drones. Switchblaces are cheap now?

[Midnight Writer]

32. Cheaper than people and tanks and missiles and warships and fighter jets and bombers.

[brush]

33. Guess you didn't see the video of the Ukrainian army unit...

which uses actual, cheap, off-the-shelf drones for tank reconnaissance, which they then forward to their unit with the weapons.

But I see what you mean by relative costs.

[Ray Bruns]

30. All those Javelins, stingers, and NLAWS are defensive weapons.

For offensive operations, you need tanks, artillery, APC's, and aircraft. The Ukrainians were able to stop the Russians in the North, but were unable to push them out. Same thing in the East and South.

Don't mistake Putin's FUBAR offensive in the North as an example of how some weapons are now obsolete. The RA pretty much violated every tactical and logistical rule in the handbook.

All these armchair warriors remind me of all the "Experts" in the 50's and 60's who said we wouldn't need to put guns on fighter jets because missiles made them obsolete only to get sucked into a war in Vietnam.

[WarGamer]

42. this.

[pecosbob]

36. Right now they can't even supply the forces they have in the field...food, fuel or ammo.

They've had to mass forces in the south to control the two main rail lines coming in from the east. Now Ukraine has drones that specifically target locomotives.

[brooklynite]

37. "There's been talk" doesn't tell me much.

Perhaps the military analysts aren’t talking about the risks of tank battles because it’s just talk.

[brush]

38. You haven't seen analyst and military experts discuss...

Russia shifting forces stymied in the Kyiv region eastward for an anticipated battle? You haven't heard that?

[WarGamer]

40. doesn't mean it will be some grand WW2 style Battle of Kursk v2.0

[brush]

43. It's what's being speculated. It's not me suggesting it.

What I'm observing is that the muddy season is there and tanks don't do well in deep mud so I don't get why the military analysts are ignoring that in their assessments?

[WarGamer]

45. Over the last 6 weeks we've seen WHY there won't be grand tank battles in the future.

NLAWS, Javelins... every bush or haybale can have a soldier hiding under it who can take out a tank with every shot.

Not to mention... in that terrain, which is largely flat and open, the Russians can just launch rockets as they approach, from a couple miles away. A salvo from the thermobaric variety can take out everything in like a 25 acre radius.

The Russian specialty, historically... has been artillery. The Ukrainians have done a great job on the defense. I don't know how they will fare on the offensive.

[brush]

47. You do get that this is being discussed on cable news quite a bit...

what the Russian's intent in eastern Ukraine is now, not the what's in the future as far as tank warfare?

[WarGamer]

49. One more time... a major attack doesn't mean a TANK BATTLE.

Of course there's going to be large battles in the South/East... but it's not going to look like a WW2 tank battle.

[brush]

50. Again, it has been discussed quite a bit lately on cable.

We'll see what happens.

[WarGamer]

51. yup, we'll see... so far the Russians have been stupid.

If they push 800 tanks towards anything they deserve to be destroyed.

[brooklynite]

44. Nope.

Add to which, the entire approach of the Ukrainian military has been small groups effectively carrying out guerilla attacks rather than land war assemblies of tanks and troops.

[brush]

46. You haven't watched much cable news lately then because...

this has been discussed often since the Russian forces in the Kyiv region were pushed back into Belarus. The speculation is about Russia's intent in the east, not Ukraine's tactics.

[brooklynite]

48. I don't watch much cable news period.

Especially opinion shows where people talk.

Doesn’t change the fact that a “tank battle” is inconsistent with Ukrainian military tactics.

[WarGamer]

39. Doubtful.

Tanks are obsolete.

MPAT, air power, drones...

[brush]

41. Perhaps. They're still being used though.